Cryptolover
300 posts

Cryptolover
@rundform
*Remember, your goal is to trade well, not to trade often.* Alexander Elder
Bodensee, Germany Beigetreten Mart 2014
785 Folgt117 Follower
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$BTC
FOMC and predicting high timeframe reversals with 90% accuracy
FOMC is coming up which means it's time for another potential high confidence mid timeframe reversal based on the FOMC event.
Had quite some questions last time when we used this edge as part of the analysis in catching the last top at 72k as well as the bottom on the 2nd of May.
So despite using this piece of edge for two years plus, it still works smoothly so here is just a detailed heads up on the intricacies as I am seeing some talk about FOMC reversals but IMO with a lack of data or depth or with confirmation bias.
So selecting the last 10 data points to get enough statistical significance (9 by law of statistics on high timeframe data), we can see that each and every FOMC event caused a mid timeframe (D - 2D - 3D) pivot, and even more importantly, not even missing a single move. The only times this truly failed was on the FOMC in November where price just kept going and it gave hick-up during the spike at the $BTC ETF approval. Personally ignoring this latter event due to its colossal importance, but none the less, the FOMC edge gives 80% or 90% reversal probability, numbers any trader loves to see.
Also note the slight cycle off-set with an average of 7 days (or 3.5 2D bars as per chart).
Makes total sense because that's the time window for the insiders to start acting upon the FOMC results and extra time for the T+2 Transaction Settlement system the algorithms on #Bitcoin run on (2 day delay).
Of course not using this edge blindly, but doing full analysis and incorporating this fact as part of the trading decisions we make on #BTC, like we have been doing and will be doing again tonight on the next $BTC update.

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🇺🇸 The U.S. government has transferred approximately 30K $BTC ($2 billion) to new wallets❗️
👀 It is assumed that 10K BTC were sent to an institutional custodial service and are likely to be sold over-the-counter (OTC).
Earlier, Donald Trump stated that he would not sell confiscated bitcoins if he becomes president. 🤷
It might happen that he won’t have anything to deal with by the time of his election
The market reacted very nervously to the news, with #Bitcoin price even breaking below the $66K level. 📉
Currently, digital gold is trading at $66,600.

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