Sam Berridge

Another great pick up from the fine print:

this is actually insane > be tech guy in australia > adopt cancer riddled rescue dog, months to live > not_going_to_give_you_up.mp4 > pay $3,000 to sequence her tumor DNA > feed it to ChatGPT and AlphaFold > zero background in biology > identify mutated proteins, match them to drug targets > design a custom mRNA cancer vaccine from scratch > genomics professor is “gobsmacked” that some puppy lover did this on his own > need ethics approval to administer it > red tape takes longer than designing the vaccine > 3 months, finally approved > drive 10 hours to get rosie her first injection > tumor halves > coat gets glossy again > dog is alive and happy > professor: “if we can do this for a dog, why aren’t we rolling this out to humans?” one man with a chatbot, and $3,000 just outperformed the entire pharmaceutical discovery pipeline. we are going to cure so many diseases. I dont think people realize how good things are going to get

China's policy actions:

One of the great ironies in this re-characterisation of a rebate as a cost, is that the government is a net recipient of about $11bn per year. Somehow that point gets missed.

The "analysis" from the Australia Institute is hot garbage. The bulk of what they call subsidies to fossil fuel companies, otherwise known as the fuel excise rebate, goes to transport, agriculture and mining.

Have a look at the list of countries Australia imports about 84% of its petrol and diesel from. Then compare that to the countries we export LNG to, and give some thought to what happens in a tit-for-tat scenario. Since things kicked off in Iran, China is the only country to restrict export of refined fuels. That's not an insurmountable problem for Australia, but if any other countries on that list follows suit... the pain it would cause Australia is self-evident. Now, consider the venn diagram below which shows countries we import petrol and diesel from and also export LNG to. Fair to say Australia restricting LNG exports to any of those countries would cause as much drama for them, as restricting refined fuel exports would do for us. Keep this in mind that next time some simpleton politician starts carping on about restricting LNG exports as a simple fix for anything.

🚨🇪🇺 EU's chief von der Leyen on their nuclear power failure: "While in 1990, one third of Europe's electricity came from nuclear, today it's only close to 15%. This reduction in the share of nuclear was a choice. And in hindsight, it was a strategic mistake for Europe to turn its back on a reliable, affordable source of low-emission power." @clashreport

Let me translate: The guy in the middle (lobbyist) is claiming credit for persuading the guy on the right (politician) for spending perhaps ~$4billion of taxpayers money to rack up maybe $15bn of sales in 12 months. A literal gold-rush. The gold (batteries) is all China's. The guy on left is selling shovels to the gold-rush. Training, warehousing etc for battery installs. It's just sick that these guys stand around looking proud, when this whole program actually just hikes electricity prices for everyone else, by shifting even more network costs onto those who don't have batteries or solar. But there's a bit more... The guy in the middle is a new face. He didn't actually come up with scheme. His boss did. Or former boss. What's happening to him? 1/

If Jim Chalmers understood what was going on in the energy market, he'd realise that every home battery the government subsidises, actually pushes up the cost for everyone else. The AEMC knows this, which is why it has proposed a 350% - 500% increase in connection fees so people with solar and batteries still contribute to the grid. reneweconomy.com.au/plan-to-increa…

@todd_hannigan Great call! - when did that note come out?

Mark up another win for Leopold Aschenbrenner’s brilliant ‘Situational Awareness’

@JackDostine Good point. It’s like one swift kick to the groin after another.

It's better than that. Marginal tax rates on wages do NOT go up automatically unlike in other countries. You pay more tax when your wages increase. You have less money because prices increase. You're hit twice. Wealth transfers to the government employed group from the non-government group. Not noticing this is the insurance that lets the gov reduce living standards without debate on raising taxes. With this they aren't accountable. People need to talk about this.

If you've noticed it's becoming harder to pay for everything, here's a hint as to why: For the 12 months to January 31st 2026: ◾ wages increased +3.4% ◾inflation increased +3.8% So although people are getting paid more, you can afford less stuff because inflation is going up faster than wages. But not for everyone... ◾Public sector wages growth +4.0% abs.gov.au/statistics/eco… That government wages are going up 17% faster than private sector wages would be galling enough... but just you wait. On top of that, the number of government funded jobs has increased 240% faster than private job growth since June 2022. And if you really want to rub some salt into the wounds, consider the bottom chart, which highlights private sector employees add about 4.5x more value per hour worked than government employees. So government employees are getting bigger pay rises, for doing less, and there's more and more of them. Keep this in mind the next time interest rates go up and taxes are increased to pay for it all.

Worth listening to - this is what happens when your regulator is following political directives rather than physics.

Just the NSW Energy Minister clutching to the talking points… but stalling on the question that matters: why are bills rising? She got there in the end. Admitted it’s because of transmission investments for the transition. That is, her policies. Bravo @WesFangMLC ! 👏👏

This is what superior Australian economic management looks like....

@EnergyWrapAU Don’t miss the heavy lifting by “on average” as well. So of course the 8hr system will need back up, the costs of which the LCOE calc doesn’t include. So no, it’s not cheaper.

Note the misdirection = "cheaper than new coal" This is a very different claim to "cheaper then existing", and even then, "cheaper then new coal" will depend on the no doubt one-sided assumptions e.g. GenCost that deliberately tips the scales against coal.

The SA price spikes on 26 & 27 Jan 2026 wiped out all earlier wholesale price reductions. Negative prices have almost no effect on the average because those negative prices occur when there’s almost no grid generation - it’s all rooftop solar. Is gas used in power generation decreasing in SA? Not consistently. EnergyConnect feed will be in the bills soon too - another upward tick. Summary: no relief for SA electricity consumers despite the hype.

Unrealized gains tax for Gen-Z: You buy a Pokémon card for $50. Someone offers you $500 for it. You say no. You love that card. You're keeping it. The government says: "Cool, but that card is worth $500 now. You owe us $100 in taxes." You: "…I didn't sell it." Government: "Don't care. Pay up." You don't have $100 lying around. So you're forced to sell the card you love just to pay a tax on money you never received. Next month? That card drops back to $50. Your card is gone. Your money is gone. And the government shrugs. That's a wealth tax on unrealized gains. They don't pay you back the tax... Now picture this. Your mom calls you crying. She has to sell the house she raised you in. Not because she can't afford it. She's lived there 30 years. It's paid off. But some website says it's worth more now and the government says she owes $15,000 she doesn't have. So she sells your childhood home. The kitchen where she made you breakfast. The doorframe where she marked your height every birthday. Gone. To pay a tax on money that was never real. Now picture the opposite. Your dad put everything into his small business. For 20 years he built it from nothing. One year the business is "valued" at $2 million on paper. He owes a massive tax bill. He empties his savings. Sells his truck. Borrows money. Pays it. Next year the market crashes. His business is worth $200,000. He lost everything to pay a tax on a number that doesn't exist anymore. Does the government give him his money back? No. Does the government give him his truck back? No. Does the government care? No. They sold this idea as "taxing billionaires." But billionaires have armies of lawyers, offshore accounts, and trusts. They'll be fine. You know who won't be fine? Your mom. Your dad. Your neighbor with a small business. The farmer down the road who's had the same land for four generations and now has to sell it because dirt got expensive. You're not taxing wealth. You're taxing people for owning things. It's like getting a parking ticket for a car you might drive somewhere someday. They want you to own nothing and be happy. To fund the fraud, waste and abuse of the welfare state they created. There is enough money. More tax isn't needed. It's all a lie. But you've been gaslit into believing this is a rich vs poor debate. I hope you understand what's at stake.

84 years today since 21 Australian nurses marched "chins up" into the sea on a quiet Sumatran beach and were murdered by Imperial Japanese forces. The nurses had earlier refused to flee and leave their patients. Amongst the most gallant of our Greatest Generation. Lest we forget.

@vass_and_ Falling cost and improving functionality

@strikeextent Agree re robotics. What makes you so bullish humanoids?

If you were in any doubt as to the impact of next generation robotics and AI will have on the workforce, have a look at the number of automotive manufacturers adopting humanoid robots into their production lines. It starts here, and will spread... quickly. I remain of the view humanoid and next generation robotics will do for rare earths, what electric vehicles did for lithium. Time will tell.