Infinity

The same rule applies to investing, trading and life: keep it simple!

As a friendly reminder… $GOOGL owns 14% of Anthropic. $AMZN owns 18% of Anthropic. This year Claude has single handedly taken down the entire Software sector, & won’t slow down anytime soon. Google & Amazon won’t stay this low for long once the markets begin to catch on. $GOOGL will be $440+ in 2026. $AMZN will be $340+ in 2026. Bookmark this for later…

Software stock multiples need to be lower than oil stocks because of AI scare?

$SPY Weekly Bollinger Bands most narrow since October 2019! $QQQ Weekly Bollinger Bands most narrow since December 2016! Something has to give and soon…

Observation: True $BTC bottoms usually take several months to form. It flatlines, and consolidates in a pretty choppy narrow range before truly breaking out again to start the next cycle up higher. It tests your patience. I can’t recall a sharp V shape recovery back to ATH’s historically. Much more different than the equity markets. Which tells me this most recent bounce is indeed a dead cat bounce and we need at least several weeks to a few months to chop around, creating maybe a new low into the mid to high $50k’s handle. Just my guesstimation.

Drawdowns do occur almost every year. Some larger. Some smaller. Some with just one. Some with multiple. But it's a normal occurrence. Since 2009: 2010: a 18% drawdown 2011: a 21% drawdown 2012: a 9% and 11% drawdown 2013: a 5%, 5%, and 7% drawdown 2014: a 5%, 6%, 7%, and 11% drawdown 2015: a 13% drawdown 2016: a 5%, 6%, and 13% drawdown 2017: a 3% and 3% drawdown (probably the best yr) 2018: a 12% and 20% drawdown 2019: a 4%, 6%, 7%, and 8% drawdown 2020: a 8%, 9%, 11%, 36% drawdown 2021: a 5%, 5%, 6%, 6% drawdown 2022: a 6%, 8%, 11%, 12%, 13%, 18%, 19% drawdown 2023: a 9% and 11% drawdown 2024: a 6% and 10% drawdown 2025: a 5% and 22% drawdown 2026: So it's only right to believe we will get some drawdown at some point. Unless you think we are going to pull a 2017 rare low vol type year...

Downtrend intact so far $spy $qqq

We still have a HUGE long term opportunity for silver. The rotation is probably in its early stages.

@markminervini Either bail out or vix spike

Maybe tomorrow's CPI will bail out the market and put an end to the recent selling pressure. For the record, when I started trading 43 years ago, the Dow was just over 1,000. Since then, I’ve made more than 99% of my wealth trading individual stocks from the long side — including a significant $DIA short gping into 9/11. I will always prefer to be stopped on my index shorts in favor of long setups in individual stocks. And right now is no different.

Bear Santa 🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻 $spy $qqq

“Most people die at 25 and aren’t buried until they’re 75.” -- Benjamin Franklin

SPX & Bitcoin vs Short-Term T-Bill Buying Oct 15, 2019: The Fed began buying short-term T-bills (~$60B/month) after the repo market blew up. This ran into early 2020. Dec 12, 2025: The Fed will start buying short-term T-bills again (~$40B/month). Call it QE, Not-QE, QE-Lite…the label doesn’t matter. It’s the same tool as 2019, but for a very different reason. 2019: • Repo crisis • Strong economy • Unemployment at 50-yr lows and falling • No macro stress 2025: • Plumbing is fine. Now it’s the economy • Unemployment rising for nearly 2 years • Growth slowing • Credit tightening Next unemployment print: Dec 16th. Will SPX and Bitcoin repeat the 2019 price action? Or does the “why” behind this QE-lite set up a very different outcome?

The difference between broke traders and rich traders: Broke traders chase every move. Rich traders wait for their setup. Patience isn't passive. It's the most active thing you can do. Because every trade you don't take? Protects capital for the one that actually matters. Focus on A+ setups.

Warren Buffett on inflation proof businesses

Trading: Wait for the right setup. Hit it when ready, stop loss, increase stops as profits build, re-enter high conviction trades at key levels. You only need something to work, not everything.

If you’d like to get rich or stay rich, I’d encourage you to develop the ability to change your mind. Most ideas are shitty. So staying fixated on shitty ideas creates an anchoring bias that will weigh you down to the mediocrity of the masses. Learn to change your mind and skate to where the puck is going to be. Others who can’t change their minds will constantly remind you of a former opinion. Ignore them. They want you to be down there with them so they can feel better about themselves. Don’t fall for it!

@unusual_whales @grok is this true? if yes, is it mainly due to mortgage debt?

40% of those earning over $300k are living paycheck to paycheck, per Goldman Sachs, $GS.

Is this time different?

UPDATE: I am still holding my original $SPY short position from 10/29. It is currently trading at a fractional profit from my entry. I've recently added some longs which has diluted the net short exposure and now, by the default, it's a hedge with near zero risk. Yes, I had a really nice short term profit +6R. But I went into the trade in case we melted down; low risk high reward. If stocks can setup and breakouts start working, I will gladly take a breakeven stop on my short to be net long individual stocks. That's it. I entered perfect. In hindsight, I didn't cover perfect but I perfectly traded my plan. And I still have not been stopped.

Entries don’t matter. Your entry gets you in the game. But your exit determines profit or a loss. I've made money on terrible entries with great exits. I've lost money on great entries with terrible exits. The exit is everything.

The best way to gain job security is not being the most knowledgeable person in the room. It's being the most reliable person in the room. Information is abundant. Dependability, helpfulness, and responsiveness are relatively scarce. We count on people who consistently deliver.