BT | Datagram Analyst

𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗕𝗧 | 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁 Independent data analyst. I built this account on one belief: data is the closest thing we have to the truth. Not headlines. Not narratives. Not official statements taken at face value, but the numbers underneath them. Every post here starts from a public, verifiable source. I work with public, non‑paywalled data from institutions like the U.S. EIA, World Bank, UNCTAD, IMF and national statistics offices. The conclusions are drawn from what the numbers show, not from gut feeling. When the data is messy, I say so. When sources clash, I show both. If a headline doesn’t match the underlying data, I’ll walk you through why. I follow the major newswires (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, FT, Al Jazeera, etc.) to keep track of events, but the figures in my charts come from public institutional datasets, not from paid data vendors. I’ll still get things wrong sometimes. When that happens, I correct the mistake in public and update the work. No shortcuts. If you follow this account you won’t always get comforting answers, but you will get honest, evidence‑based ones. Data first. Always.

@McFaul If Iran was fully disarmed, why does the deal still require ships to coordinate passage with Iranian armed forces?

If we completely disarmed Iran, why do we have to sign an agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz? A completely disarmed Iran would not be able to threaten ships passing through the strait. Something is not adding up here.

@escobless @KobeissiLetter That’s the sharper read. Europe runs roughly 25% of its gas through Hormuz. The toll doesn’t hit the US, well it hits EU energy costs directly. Washington negotiated a fee that someone else pays

@BT_Datagram @KobeissiLetter It's basically a tax on EU. Trump is having Europe pay for Iran's reconstruction. Since they were willing to pay Iran during the war for safe passage, they might as well continue paying. It's a punishment.

BREAKING: The two-week ceasefire plan between the Iran and the US allows Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, per CNN. A regional official said this money would be used for the reconstruction of Iran. Iran has been recently charging $2 million for a one-way voyage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Source: abcnews.com/Business/wireS… abcnews.com/Business/wireS… eia.gov/todayinenergy/…

𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔𝗚𝗥𝗔𝗠 | 25 Mar 2026 (GMT+8) | Asia’s Coal Pivot Asian governments are pivoting to coal as LNG supplies shrink. South Korea lifted caps on coal-fired electricity generation and raised nuclear reactor utilisation to around 𝟴𝟬%. India is burning more coal to meet summer demand. Indonesia is prioritising domestic supply over exports, tightening regional availability. Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam are all boosting coal output. The Newcastle benchmark, the main coal price reference for Asia, rose 𝟭𝟯% since the war began on 28 February. The exposure is structural. The EIA estimates 𝟴𝟰% of the crude oil and 𝟴𝟯% of the LNG that transited Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia. Japan depends on the Middle East for more than 𝟵𝟬% of its crude oil imports, according to Japan’s Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry. South Korea sources about 𝟳𝟬% of its oil and 𝟮𝟬% of its LNG from the Middle East, according to Korea International Trade Association data. These are not diversified supply chains. They are single points of failure priced at whatever the spot market demands when the primary route closes. The compounding problem is that Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, is now directing output toward domestic consumption. That tightens regional supply at the same moment regional demand is rising sharply, pushing the benchmark price up for every buyer simultaneously. South Korea has responded by lifting coal caps and raising nuclear output, two steps that point in opposite directions on its own climate commitments. The question is whether emergency coal restarts outlast the crisis and delay renewable transitions that were already underway before 28 February. #Asia #EnergyCrisis #Coal #LNG

BREAKING: Over 500 gas stations in Australia have now run out of fuel as the nation’s fuel crisis worsens. Of these, 187 have completely run out of diesel, while 32 service stations had run out of all types of fuel.

@KobeissiLetter Made an analysis days ago x.com/bt_datagram/st…

Fertilizer prices are skyrocketing: New Orleans granular urea prices, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, are up +89% since December, to $660 per short ton, the highest since September 2022. By comparison, the 2022 peak during the Russia-Ukraine war was $910 per short ton. This comes as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown has effectively halted fertilizer shipments from the Middle East. Furthermore, top exporters China and Russia are also curbing crop nutrient sales, tightening supply further at the worst possible time, right before the spring planting season. Higher fertilizer costs directly translate to higher food prices, threatening to reignite agricultural inflation as seen in 2022. Food is set to get even more expensive.

Context worth adding here. Katz has made escalatory statements in each of the past four days. On 21 March he said strikes would increase significantly this week. On 24 March he confirmed strikes continuing with full force. The pattern is consistent. What makes today’s statement worth watching is the timing. It comes on the same day the US sent Iran a 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan and Brent fell around 5% on ceasefire optimism. Israel and the US are sending opposite signals simultaneously. The US is offering off-ramps while Israel is announcing new stages. That gap matters for energy markets. Hormuz does not reopen on a US peace proposal alone if Israel continues independent escalation. The strait carried one-fifth of global oil and LNG before the conflict. Five vessels transited on Monday versus a pre-war average of 120 daily. A diplomatic signal from Washington and a military escalation signal from Jerusalem are not the same thing.

Israel Defense Minister: We have entered a new stage in the war with Iran.

The Ford’s fire on 12 March is confirmed. Laundry facility, non-combat related, arrived Crete for repairs 23 March after a 10 month plus deployment. What the post leaves out is that the USS George H.W. Bush was already deployed to the Middle East on 7 March, before the Ford went to Crete. The US did not drop to zero carriers in the fight. The Lincoln repositioning from under 350 kilometres to over 1,100 kilometres from Iran’s coast is confirmed via satellite tracking. Whether that was forced by Iranian missiles or was a tactical decision to reduce exposure to short range coastal threats is the disputed part. The US called it repositioning, Iran called it retreat. The distance numbers are not in dispute. The more accurate picture is two carriers deployed with one in for repairs, not zero. The Bush’s current operational status in the region is what determines actual strike capacity right now, not the Ford’s absence alone.

@TheAngry53586 Here’s a few: 19fortyfive.com/2026/03/u-s-na… This one is from Bloomberg. Bloomberg is behind a paywall. en.ypagency.net/387718

The US Navy sent its two most powerful warships to fight Iran. Both are now gone from the front. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the most expensive warship ever built at $13.2 billion, left the Red Sea after a fire broke out in its laundry room. That’s the official story. The real story is what a Pentagon testing report quietly revealed at the same time. The Ford’s jet launch system is unreliable. Its radar is unreliable. Its weapons elevators, the lifts that move bombs and missiles to the flight deck, are unreliable. Pentagon testers said there is simply not enough data to assess whether the ship can keep operating if it takes enemy fire. Fixes for these combat systems have been identified. Most remain unfunded. The ship also doesn’t have enough bunks. It needs at least 159 more. This is the Navy’s flagship. Delivered years late. $13.2 billion. Deployed into a war zone with systems the Pentagon itself cannot certify as combat-ready. Then there’s the USS Abraham Lincoln. Iran claimed repeatedly that its missiles forced the Lincoln to retreat. The US called it propaganda. What’s not disputed: the Lincoln moved from 350 kilometers off the Iranian coast to over 1,100 kilometers away. Both carriers are now parked far beyond the range of Iranian anti-ship missiles. The Pentagon calls it “tactical repositioning.” The Ford has been at sea for nearly 11 months, one of the longest carrier deployments in modern US history. Maintenance on nuclear carriers takes months under normal conditions. After a fire, an 11-month deployment, and a backlog of deferred repairs, analysts are now talking about 12 to 14 months out of action. America went into this war with two carriers. It now has zero operating near the fight. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

The market reaction captures the gap between the statement and the reality on the water. Before the conflict, Hormuz averaged 𝟭𝟮𝟬 daily transits. On Monday, maritime intelligence firm Windward tracked just 𝟱 vessels via AIS. Iran’s non-hostile passage announcement does not change insurance terms, does not restore tanker confidence, and does not specify what coordination with Iranian authorities actually means in practice. Brent fell around 𝟰.𝟳% to $𝟵𝟵.𝟲𝟬 on Wednesday on the 15-point peace plan reports and the passage announcement. That is markets pricing in a probability of resolution, not confirmation of one. The strait normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Five vessels transiting versus 120 is not a supply unlock - it is a diplomatic signal. The structural question for energy markets is whether insurance underwriters change their war-risk assessment before tanker owners change their routing decisions. Without that, the passage announcement changes the headline without changing the flow.

📉 Oil prices tumbled and stocks rose Wednesday after reports that Washington sent a peace plan to Iran, while Tehran announced it will let "non-hostile" oil vessels through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ u.afp.com/SbkF

Sources: abcnews.com/Business/wireS… abcnews.com/Business/wireS… aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12…

Asian governments are pivoting to coal as LNG supplies shrink. South Korea lifted caps on coal-fired electricity generation. India is burning more coal to meet summer demand. Indonesia is prioritising domestic supply over exports, tightening availability for the rest of the region. Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam are all boosting coal output. The Newcastle benchmark, the main coal price reference for Asia, rose 𝟭𝟯% since the war began on 28 February. The exposure is structural. About 𝟴𝟰% of the crude oil and 𝟴𝟯% of the LNG that transited Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia. Japan depends on that route for around 𝟵𝟯% of its oil imports. South Korea sources about 𝟳𝟬% of its oil and 𝟮𝟬% of its LNG from the Middle East. Only about 𝟵𝟬 vessels have transited the strait since 28 February. These economies have no short-term alternative at scale and coal is the only fuel with enough regional availability to absorb the gap. The compounding problem is that Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, is now prioritising domestic consumption. That tightens regional supply at the same moment regional demand is rising sharply - pushing the benchmark price up for every buyer in the chain simultaneously. Indonesia’s coal subsidies already rose 𝟮𝟰% to $𝟭𝟭 billion in 2024 before the war began. The question is whether coal restarts designed as a temporary fix outlast the crisis and set back renewable transitions that were underway before 28 February. #Asia #EnergyCrisis #Coal #LNG

Source: aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3… abcnews.com/Business/wireS… aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3…

On 23 March, Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum to Iran sent Asian markets into a sharp retreat. South Korea’s KOSPI closed down 𝟲.𝟱% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 𝟯.𝟱%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 𝟯.𝟱%. The sell-off was not panic. It was geography priced into equities. The reason Asia moves harder than anywhere else on Hormuz news is structural. Japan and South Korea depend on imported fossil fuels for between 𝟴𝟬 and 𝟵𝟬 percent of their energy needs. When Hormuz closes, there is no domestic buffer and no alternative supply route that matches the scale of what the strait normally delivers. The energy cost transmission into manufacturing and corporate margins is direct and immediate. Oil is up more than 𝟱𝟬% since the war began on 28 February. For economies running almost entirely on imported energy, that is not a market event. It is a structural cost shock compounding with every week the strait remains effectively closed. The question is not whether Asian markets recover when a ceasefire comes. It is how much industrial damage accumulates in the weeks before it does. #Hormuz #OilMarkets #AsianMarkets #EnergyCrisis

19 drones on the Eastern Province while a five day diplomatic pause is nominally in effect. That is the number that matters here. Iran denied negotiations had taken place hours after Trump announced them, and the drone campaign against Saudi infrastructure has continued regardless. The Eastern Province hosts Ras Tanura, which handles around 550,000 barrels per day, and the Abqaiq processing facility which moves roughly 7 million barrels per day through its stabilization plant. Ras Tanura was already shut down once this month. The 2019 Abqaiq attack halved Saudi output temporarily and spiked oil 15% in a single session. Brent dropped 14% yesterday on the diplomatic announcement and is trading around $99 right now. Iran denying talks while the drone campaign continues is the contradiction markets have to price. The gap between the diplomatic signal and the operational reality is where the next move lives.

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry says that in the past two hours, the kingdom's air defence systems intercepted and destroyed a total of 19 drones, targeting the country’s Eastern Province. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/0myuqk

At the current pace, US mortgage rates will be back above 7% in a matter of days. The bond market is out of control. This is a MUCH bigger problem than oil.

The gap between equities and crude today tells the story. WTI is trading around $98, Brent just above $106, with Goldman now calling $110 average through April. That is a 62% move from where oil averaged in 2025. In under a month. Goldman’s tail scenario is the one markets are quietly pricing. Hormuz flows at 5% of normal for 10 weeks and Brent clears the 2008 record near $147. Iraq and Kuwait are already shutting in. Saudi and UAE are two to three weeks behind that decision if nothing changes at the strait. Equities are not reacting to oil directly. They are reacting to what crude at these levels does to margins, inflation expectations, and consumer spending six to eight weeks from now. The oil price is the input. The earnings revisions are the output.

📉 Stocks tumbled Monday and oil prices jumped after Donald Trump and Iranian leaders traded threats over the key Strait of Hormuz, while Israel said the Middle East war could last several more weeks. ➡️ u.afp.com/SLKr

22 countries in the planning room is notable. But the Axios reporting from Thursday is worth reading alongside Rutte’s Fox News framing. France, Germany, Italy and Japan had all publicly ruled out deploying naval vessels before signing the political statement. What Rutte confirmed is coordinated planning, not confirmed force deployment. The distinction matters. The Strait moves roughly 21 million barrels of seaborne oil per day. Planning committees do not reopen chokepoints. The gap between a political statement of support and actual naval presence in contested waters is where the operational question lives. South Korea and Japan specifically are still navigating domestic political constraints before any ships move. The 22 number reflects political alignment. The actual coalition size when deployment decisions land may look different.

🔥 NATO BACKS US STRIKES ON IRAN NATO Secretary General says a coalition of 22 countries is working together to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalate. The group includes NATO members plus partners like Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, UAE, and Bahrain.

The infrastructure map explains the split. Saudi Arabia’s Petroline runs at 7 million bpd and the UAE’s ADCOP handles up to 1.8 million bpd - both routing crude out without touching Hormuz. Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, and Bahrain have nothing equivalent. Their entire export position locked up on 28 Feb. Qatar is the clearest case. Ras Laffan took direct hits, LNG operations declared force majeure, and there is no pipeline alternative for LNG at that scale. No bypass, no options. If the two states with geographic leverage are reading the conflict one way and the three fully exposed to Hormuz are each calculating differently, what does that mean for collective GCC decision making once a ceasefire becomes real?

Shift happening in Gulf on Iran: - Both Saudi Arabia and UAE inching closer to Trump on war - Qatar cracking down on pro Iran influencers + some Jazeera voices - Kuwait going after Hezbollah elements - Oman keeps distance, contradicts Trump - Bahrain in line w Saudi, UAE