Caleb Beer
664 posts

Caleb Beer
@CalebIsChasin
BSU ‘28 || Storm Chaser || Hoosier Alley || 🌪️=16 || Beerman The Weatherman || Dixie Alley’s Favorite Hoosier



Sitting this one out, generally still like staging in Davenport to NW IL play, feels like a small but reasonable window from 20Zish on for a storm to produce with an effectively destabilized environment and back winds and 3cape east of the sfc low. Still seeing the low level hodograph is nicely curved with strong directional shear, Effective SRH around 250 to 300 m²/s² is more than sufficient for sustained rotating storms. The downside is that the hodograph elongates quickly and becomes more linear with height. (Although hodos look much better in the IL side) That favors faster storm motions and can lean things toward more outflow dominant structures and a question how long we can maintain discrete/semi discrete. Deep layer shear around 60kts supports supercells, at least initially. However, the combination of stronger forcing, linear mid level flow will promote upscale growth at sooner rather than later I don’t think there’s been a meaningful trend either way , it’s just hard to justify 16 hours solo one way for 50mph+ storm motions. Certainly not feeling the same “I can’t believe I’m going to miss this” as I did before Kankakee day. Was really excited to send this too, but ended up staying 2 hours past shift change to finish care, and didn’t get the sleep I’ve needed after a couple overnights. (TLDR: Northeast chaser doesn’t want it bad enough, free tornados in E Iowa/Illinois tomorrow) Rooting for y’all sending it tomorrow go verify a TTC or a TOTY pic






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