CoinRichter

Market Pulse, 7 Jun 2026: Extreme bottom. SOPR below 1: coins on average changing hands at a loss, the signature of capitulation. Active Address Divergence sits low in its 2-year range: price is not running ahead of on-chain activity. We track conditions, not timing.

The 1.24M BTC supply transfer is the part of this story that doesn't get enough attention. On-chain, what matters isn't just who sold - it's the age of the coins moved. OG whale distribution (coins dormant 5+ years) has historically correlated with late-cycle exhaustion more reliably than any single buyer's accumulation pace. Saylor absorbs supply. He doesn't create new demand from thin air. Those are different forces operating on different timescales.

Criticism over Bitcoin’s price decline should be directed more at OG whales than at Saylor. Can we really compare the 1.24M BTC that OG whales sold to Saylor and ETFs over the past two years with the 32 BTC Saylor sold? Bitcoin is much higher today because of Saylor’s buying. The market should give him more credit. Without his purchases, if more than 700K BTC had been sold into the market, Bitcoin could have fallen much deeper, possibly like past bear markets. The fact that Bitcoin is not at $22K today may be partly thanks to Saylor. The “death spiral” narrative feels overstated to me. Of course, I am open to changing my view if there is a well-researched, data-driven analysis that proves otherwise.

We just shipped Market Pulse to CoinRichter. A new on-chain composite that reads where we are in the Bitcoin cycle — from deep value territory through to late-cycle excess. Right now it's reading: Extreme bottom. On-chain data is showing conditions deep in value territory. Valuation metrics and market sentiment are at the low end of their ranges, with selling pressure heavily depleted. Not a prediction. Just the data. coinrichter.com

Worth pairing with SOPR here. When short-term holder capitulation of this magnitude flips SOPR back above 1.0 and holds, that's historically been the more durable signal than the capitulation event itself. We're watching whether this one sticks or gets rejected at breakeven again.

Biggest short-term holder capitulation in the history of bitcoin.

Good framing. The 68% ceiling is worth watching closely. What we've seen in prior cycles is that SOPR tends to compress noticeably before that cohort threshold gets hit — holders stop selling into strength before the realized cap share peaks. If those two diverge this time, the sequence breaks. Too early to call which way.

Bitcoin is at the same price as two years ago, but one thing is different. The 6m–2y cohort, who joined this cycle, now holds 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago. Last cycle, Bitcoin bottomed when this hit 68%. Short-term holders are evolving into long-term holders.

The holder shift argument is solid. What we watch alongside it is whether new institutional hands are absorbing at a pace that keeps SOPR above 1 during drawdowns. In prior cycles, OG distribution without that absorption showed up in active address divergence weeks before price cracked. Still early to call which script this follows.

비트코인 OG들과 오래된 채굴자들의 매도는, 미국 전통금융 기관 투자자와 ETF로 넘어가는 큰 손바뀜 과정이라고 생각합니다. 그래서 손바뀜 이후 더 이상 들어올 유동성이 없어 비트코인이 잘 안 될 거라는 주장에는 동의하지 않습니다. 어떤 자산이든 결국 중요한 건 누가 들고 있느냐입니다. 지금 들고 있는 사람들이 앞으로 더 큰 유동성을 끌어올 수 있는 주체라면, 다음 상승은 언제든 다시 기약할 수 있다고 봅니다. 기업도 대주주가 누구냐에 따라 시장의 기대가 달라지잖아요. 비트코인도 크게 다르지 않다고 생각합니다. 솔직히 자산 가치 상승 측면에서는 비트코인 OG들보다 전통금융 기관 투자자들이 더 강한 수요 기반이 될 수도 있다고 봅니다. 물론 그 과정에서 사이퍼펑크적 가치는 일부 희석될 수 있습니다. 저도 그 부분은 정말 아쉽습니다. 그래도 비트코인에는 다음 상승 사이클이 분명히 있을 거라고 생각합니다. 투자자로서 여전히 비트코인을 믿고, 더 기다려볼 만하다고 봅니다.

Long-term holder capitulation at that scale is worth watching in context. When LTH loss realization spikes mid-cycle, it has historically either marked a local bottom or preceded a second leg down — the difference tends to show up in active address behavior within 7 to 10 days. We track SOPR alongside address divergence for exactly that reason. Too early to call which way this resolves.

Aggregated realized loss spiked to $1.3B/day as price contracted back to $62k. Long-term holders accounted for $770M of that, roughly 59% of total losses realized. The cycle-top buyers who held through the drawdown are now exiting at a loss. 📉 glassno.de/btc-realized-l…

LTH exchange inflows are one piece we watch closely. The part that sharpens the signal: whether those inflows coincide with Active Address Divergence, where price keeps climbing but wallet participation quietly drops. When both show up together, historically the gap between warning and peak has been around 18 days. LTH sending alone doesn't always confirm a top is near.

When Long-Term Holders Send $BTC to Exchanges Watch Chart of The Week below👇

Solid pattern. What we'd add: the floor in profitable addresses is rising cycle over cycle, but the ceiling at tops is compressing too. 2021 peaked around 97-98% in profit vs 2017's near-100%. Tighter top, higher floor. That narrowing range is something we watch closely when SOPR and active address divergence start moving together.

Probably the most important $BTC analysis. It doesn't take a genius to see that the drops are getting less aggressive with every cycle. 2015 retrace = 35.82% addresses in profit. 2019 retrace = 40.47% addresses in profit. 2022 retrace = 45.11% addresses in profit. 2026 retrace = 51.12% addresses in profit. We are seeing a 5% increase each cycle. So do the math. 45.11% + 5% approx = exactly where BTC is now. Hindsight is a b*tch when the weekly/monthly looks disgusting.

Both of those together have historically marked the deepest accumulation zones. What's less discussed: active address counts tend to bottom before price does in these zones. In our data, address divergence started curling up roughly 6-8 weeks before realized price was reclaimed in prior cycles. Not there yet, but worth watching the divergence as well

✅ below 200w moving average (black line) 🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ...

Good data point. LTH supply in loss climbing like this has historically shown up near capitulation zones, but it cuts both ways. In 2018 it kept rising for weeks after most called the bottom, and in 2022 the peak reading came before a secondary leg down. What we watch alongside it is Active Address Divergence, whether new demand is actually showing up to absorb that supply. Right now that read is less clear than the LTH number alone suggests.

Bitcoin (BTC) LTH Supply in Loss update 👀 The indicator has now climbed to 6.32M 🔥

@CryptoTice_ The SOPR data backs this up. LTH-SOPR at cycle bottoms has historically spent weeks below 0.85 before the actual floor printed. Right now we're nowhere near that threshold. 15 cents on the dollar is stress. 50 cents is capitulation. Those are very different markets.

LONG TERM HOLDERS ARE IN PAIN BUT THE REAL BOTTOM IS NOT HERE YET. At $69.5K they are carrying 15 cents of loss for every dollar held. That sounds bad. But historical cycle lows? 50 cents on the dollar. We are at 15%. Previous bottoms required 50%. The stress is real. The capitulation is not complete. Not even close. This is the uncomfortable truth nobody wants to hear. The long term holder base has absorbed far worse than this in every previous cycle. And they are not even close to breaking yet. More pain may be required before the real bottom forms. Respect the data. It has never been wrong.

Realized losses surging while spot sellers regain control is exactly the setup that's preceded prior cycle floors. SOPR is in reset territory right now. Historically that combination has marked capitulation, not continuation. Too early to call a bottom, but the pattern is closer to 2018/2022 lows than anything we'd flag as a top.

The Rally That Wasn't $BTC has fallen to $66K, with profitability collapsing, realized losses surging, and spot sellers regaining control. We are below the ETF cost basis, and options continue pricing elevated risk. Read the full Week On-Chain👇 glassno.de/3QlNpdE

4/4 We built CoinRichter to warn when markets overheat. Right now it has nothing to warn about. The system is quiet because the data says quiet. We will flag loudly when that changes.

3/4 Conditions this compressed across holder-valuation and market-structure metrics have, in prior cycles, marked the deepest phases before recovery. We are not at a top. By almost every measure we track, we are at the opposite end of the cycle.

1/4 CoinRichter weekly update. BTC is sitting at $73,195. Our top-warning system is completely quiet. SOPR, address divergence, and pattern similarity are all in the low-to-mid percentiles. Zero concurrent signals firing. No top warning is active.

7/7 The full methodology is public — no signup needed. The free tier shows the warning state on a 24-hour delay; paid unlocks it in real time with alerts. Read it and judge for yourself: coinrichter.com

6/7 Across ~13 years of Bitcoin history: [15 warnings · 73% hit rate · 5 of 6 all-time-high tops caught · ~18-day median lead before the peak]. It's not perfect - there have been false positives. A warning is a heads-up, never a guarantee.

1/7 Most people don't sell the top. They sell months later, on the way down. We built CoinRichter to change that - a clear warning before Bitcoin's cycle top, while there's still time to act on it. How the methodology actually works 👇