Denise

On March 31st, I titled my post “History May not Repeat Itself but it often does Rhyme.” In 1997 due to the Asian currency crisis and in 1998 due to the Russian bond default, the S&P despite having an intra-year drawdown of 11% and 19% respectively, finished the year up 31% and 27%. This was in year 3 and 4 of the internet infrastructure buildout. My view was 2026, which was year 4 of the AI buildout, would also see a solid rebound especially given a war can get walked back versus the structural issues in 97/98. In addition, Agentic AI was ramping which required 10-100x more tokens versus Chat-based AI. After a 9% intra-year drawdown from 1/27-3/30, the S&P has now rebounded 12% with just one down day over the past 13 trading sessions as the war with Iran heads to a conclusion. It took just 11 trading days for the S&P RSI to go from oversold to overbought which is the fastest since 1982. The Nasdaq has been even more impressive with a 13 consecutive day winning streak over which it gained 18%. This is the longest streak since 12 consecutive days of gains in 1992 with a gain of 16% for perspective. Future positives include a new Chairman of the Fed likely by mid-May who was chosen largely due to his preference to cut rates and continue the easy money policies that have fueled this market over the past 3 years. In addition, the AI infrastructure buildout seems to be taking another step function higher with the emergence of Agentic AI earlier this year fueling token production which requires more hardware. But first comes the meat of earnings. There was lackluster stock performance last week by important tech stocks which reported earnings such as $ASML (-1%), $TSM (flat) and $NFLX (-6%). In addition, their were mixed results by the big banks which reported this past week such as $WFC -5% but $C +6%. But despite this, the S&P financials sector as a whole still gained 3% with much better results seen in the S&P (+5%), Nasdaq (+7%), R2K (+6%) and Magnificent 7 (+9%.) A 13% decline in WTI last week to $84 on positive Iran headlines was the major catalyst of the market rally. Having said that, it was in the mid-$60s before the war started and the S&P is at all-time record highs. Looking to what the market is discounting looking forward, the 12 month futures contract is about $71 and was down 3% last week but it was in the low-$60s prior to the war. 10 year treasury yields also seem to reflect the higher oil prices. They were close to 4.0% before the Iran war and while down from their highs of closer to 4.5% they are still around 4.25%. Finally, the S&P is technically overbought as noted earlier due to the speed and gains during this 13 day rally. As a result of the above factors of: 1) higher oil, 2) higher bond yields and 3) overbought technicals with the market at all-time record highs, the near-term risk versus reward in my opinion is not great. I am expecting a minor pullback. A sell the news reaction to the final settlement around Iran or further angst around the opening of the Strait and under what terms could easily do this as well especially if oil does not come down further. But I would use a minor pull-back to add exposure. During 1997/98 following those macro scares during the internet buildout, after the prior losses were recouped and the market went to new highs, the pullbacks were contained to around 5%. All the best in the week ahead.

Okay, this is damn funny. 😂 Trump is such a global laughingstock right now, and it’s such an embarrassment for our country.

I will add some conviction and accountability: $QQQ 98% chance that it'll have a red week. If I am wrong, I will post a video of myself doing 200 pushups and 50 pullups total in 10 minutes.

Here is a guide of when to know that a Prop Firm is in trouble or at least know the signs so you are well prepared to run: 1) Changing trading conditions Tweaking trading environment on a demo LP is the first sign there are troubles ahead. That would be by increasing spreads by 2 - 5 pips, increasing latency upon entry and exit at specific market hours, or adding arbitrary slippage on specific order types or Market (Gold is the main culprit). Usually a sign that a firm is trying to lower the payout ratio. 2) Changing rules and payout timelines Changing rules every now and then is actually a good thing. For example, if a firm is too strict and needs to compete with other firms out there, it's wise to slightly tweak rules in order to accommodate better flow of customers. But if you see weekly/monthly rule changes, or stealth/ambiguous rules being introduced, it means that the firm is trying to lower amount of payouts. 1 and 2 go in tandem, time to diversify and use other firms. 3) Sudden and sharp increase of payout rejections for ambiguous reasonsIf step 1 and 2 fail, then step 3 is implemented. Many of the big firms have done this, and do it sporadically just so it's not obvious to the naked eye. 4) Payout delays (multi day ones specifically) Huge red flag! If a firm has multiple day payout delays, instantly run, do not buy further challenges from that firm. It simply means their cashflow is in deep red and they are about to rug pull or are extremely struggling. Just run, do not listen to excuses no matter how good they are. Over the years I've heard and seen them all. 99% is PR bullshit. 5) Extreme discounts... at all times 40 - 50% discounts in special occasions 1 per year is fine, but remember having discounts cuts into the business main revenue stream which is never good. On its own it may not be a sign, as the firm may be trying to gain more market share and have the capital to back it up, but in my opinion it's a terrible idea as you build innate yearning from customers to keep having 50% off due to being used to pricing. 6) Forced Platform Migrations If a firm suddenly forces you to move from a major platform (like MT4/5) to a web-trader nobody has ever heard of, it is rarely an "upgrade." It usually means they lost their license or their broker dumped them due to toxic flow. Stability is key in this game, and forced migration is chaos. 7) Leadership acting emotional on the timeline If you see the CEO or the main brand account arguing with random anime profile pics, blocking critics, or screaming "FUD" at legitimate questions, the end is near. Professional, solvent business owners don't have time to fight on Twitter. If they are panicking publicly, imagine what is happening behind the scenes. One of these signs is a worry. Two is a pattern. Three is a guarantee of trouble.

I hope this is rage bait because $1M is definitely not enough to retire comfortably. I have $10,547,837.27 in my 401k and still can't retire.