Peter Fallenius

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Peter Fallenius

Peter Fallenius

@PeterFallenius

Former Startup CEO to public company CEO. Founder @Outlier360Pro (Outlier360Project) (Launching soon) @Outlier360AI (Leverage #AI & @OutlierLearning.)

London Se unió Ağustos 2009
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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
Everyone is born with infinite ignorance… and will die with infinite ignorance… Blindspots are, as far as I see it, part of the infinite ignorance… The problem is not that we have the infinite ignorance, the problem is that almost all are ignorant about having it…
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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
Really worth considering… …if Terence Tao is right, are you prepared…? If not, how can you get ready fast…?
Dustin@r0ck3t23

Terence Tao has won every award mathematics can give a human being. Fields Medal. Breakthrough Prize. MacArthur Genius Grant. He is widely regarded as the greatest living mathematician. Not one of. The greatest. He just said something that should terrify every university on Earth. Tao: “We live in a particularly unpredictable era. I think things that we’ve taken for granted for centuries may not hold anymore.” Not years. Not decades. Centuries. The assumptions governing who gets to contribute to knowledge have been in place longer than most nations have existed. Tao just told you those assumptions are dissolving. Tao: “The way we do everything, not just mathematics, will change.” This is not a man who deals in hyperbole. He builds arguments the way he builds proofs. Piece by piece. Nothing unverified. When he says everything, he means everything. Tao: “In math, you previously had to basically go through years and years of education, be a math PhD before you could contribute to the frontier of math research.” That was the contract. You give a decade of your life to an institution. You grind through coursework, committees, dissertation reviews, postdoc rotations. Then maybe you get to touch the boundary of what’s known. The entire system was built on that bottleneck. Time was the gate. Credentials were the key. Tao: “Now it’s quite possible at the high school level that you could get involved in a math project and actually make a real contribution because of all these AI tools.” A high schooler. Contributing to frontier mathematics. The same frontier that used to require a decade of institutional obedience to even approach. He said this about math. He already told you this applies to everything. AI didn’t just speed up the path. It removed the path entirely. The university sold you a ten-year toll road. AI just paved around it overnight. The toll booth operators haven’t realized yet that no one’s coming. Tao: “In many ways, I would prefer the much more boring, quiet era where things are much the same as they were ten years ago, 20 years ago.” This is the line that should haunt you. The smartest mathematician on the planet would rather this wasn’t happening. He is not selling this. He is not positioning himself for a funding round. The acceleration is so violent that even the mind best equipped to process it would prefer it stopped. If Tao is uncomfortable, you should be paying very close attention to your own assumptions about what’s coming. Tao: “The things that you study, some of them may become obsolete or revolutionized, but some things will be retained.” That word “some” is doing enormous work in that sentence. It means the rest won’t be. Entire fields that people spent their careers building will collapse. Not slowly. Not politely. And Tao is telling you he can’t predict which ones survive. Tao: “You should be open to very, very different ways of doing science, some of which don’t exist yet.” Most people will scroll past this. It’s the most important line in the entire clip. He’s not saying learn new tools. He’s not saying adapt your workflow. He’s saying the methods themselves haven’t been invented yet. The frameworks don’t exist. You cannot prepare for what hasn’t been created. You can only build the kind of mind that doesn’t break when the ground shifts beneath it. Tao: “It’s a scary time, but also very exciting.” He said scary first. Every tech founder says exciting first and mentions risk as a footnote. Tao reversed it. When the most brilliant mind of a generation leads with fear and follows with possibility, that is not optimism. That is a man telling you the truth about what’s coming while still choosing to walk toward it. The people who survive the next decade won’t be the ones with the best credentials. They’ll be the ones who stopped mourning the world that was and started building for the one that doesn’t exist yet.

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Peter Fallenius retuiteado
Waken Minds 𓂀
Waken Minds 𓂀@wakenminds·
When craftsmanship was important.
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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
Worth considering…
Naval@naval

Is Traditional Software Engineering Dead? “Does this mean that traditional software engineering is dead? Absolutely not. Software engineers—even the ones who are not necessarily tuning or training AI models—these are now among the most leveraged people on earth. Sure, the guys who are training and tuning models are even more leveraged because they’re building the tool set that software engineers are using. But software engineers still have two massive advantages on you. First, they think in code, so they actually know what’s going on underneath. And all abstractions are leaky. So when you have a computer programming for you—when you have Claude Code or equivalent programming for you—it’s going to make mistakes. It’s going to have bugs. It’s going to have suboptimal architecture. So it’s not going to be quite right. And someone who understands what’s going on underneath will be able to plug the leaks as they occur. So if you want to build a well-architected application, if you want to be able to even specify a well-architected application, if you want to be able to make it run at high performance, if you want it to do its best, if you want to catch the bugs early, then you’re going to want to have a software engineering background. The traditional software engineer is going to be able to use these tools much better. And there are still many kinds of problems in software engineering that are out of scope for these AI programs today. The easiest way to think about those is problems that are outside of their data distribution. For example, if they need to do a binary sort or reverse a linked list, they’ve seen countless examples of that, so they’re extremely good at it. But when you start getting out of their domain—where you have to write very high-performance code, when you’re running on architectures that are novel or brand new, when you’re actually creating new things or solving new problems, then you still need to get in there and hand code it. At least until either there are so many of those examples that new models can be trained on them, or until these models can sufficiently reason at even higher levels of abstraction and crack it on their own… And remember: there is no demand for average. The average app—nobody wants it, at least as long as it’s not filling some niche that is filled by a superior app. The app that is better will win essentially a hundred percent of the market. Maybe there’s some small percentage that will bleed off to the second-best app because it does some little niche feature better than the main app, or it’s cheaper, or something of the sort. But generally speaking, people only want the best of anything. So the bad news is there’s no point in being number two or number three—like in the famous Glengarry Glen Ross scene where Alec Baldwin says, “First place gets a Cadillac Eldorado, second place gets a set of steak knives, and third place you’re fired.” That’s absolutely true in these winner-take-all markets. That’s the bad news: You have to be the best at something if you want to win. However, the set of things you can be best at is infinite. You can always find some niche that is perfect for you, and you can be the best at that thing. This goes back to an old tweet of mine where I said, “Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.” And I think that still applies in this age of AI.”

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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
It's not Tolerance for Uncertainty that is the Truly Important thing... What really matters is the Ability to Understand/Figure Out what is going on in situations where some/most see Uncertainty... ...this is what to outsiders looks like "Tolerance for Uncertainty"... but isn't... THIS is an enormous competitive edge, and offers huge opportunities, and makes the few who can do it see great possibilities everywhere... ...and best of all. it can be learned...
Sahil Bloom@SahilBloom

Everyone needs to hear this…

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Massimo
Massimo@Rainmaker1973·
Perfectionism vs. Consistency.
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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
“Oil” is very different… Just recognizing a label, in this case “oil”, may not mean that one has any useful knowledge/understanding… and to assume that just because some people are using the same label/word, doesn’t mean that they are really talking about the same thing… …not making sure the understanding is the same, makes any real communication impossible…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Everyone talks about Iranian oil in barrels. Nobody talks about what is inside them. That difference is why Western refineries have been running shadow networks through Dubai for twenty years to get it despite the sanctions. Crude oil is not a uniform commodity. It is a spectrum of hydrocarbons with different molecular weights, and the composition of a given crude determines how easily it converts into the products refineries actually want to sell: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil. The measurement that captures this is API gravity. Higher API gravity means lighter crude with shorter carbon chains, which means lower energy cost to crack, lower processing cost to refine, and higher yield of the light distillates that carry premium pricing. Lower API gravity means heavier crude requiring more energy, more processing steps, more capital equipment, and producing a higher share of lower-value residuals. Iranian Light crude runs at 33 to 36 degrees API gravity with sulfur content between 1.36 and 1.5 percent. That is the refinery sweet spot. It is light enough to yield high fractions of gasoline and middle distillates without excessive processing costs, but heavy enough to produce the full range of products that complex refineries are designed to process. It is what petroleum engineers call an optimal blend crude. Now compare the alternatives. Venezuelan Merey heavy crude runs at approximately 16 degrees API gravity with sulfur between 3 and 5 percent. Refining it profitably requires a coking unit, a hydrocracker, and an extensive desulfurization train. The equipment exists. The economics work for refineries purpose-built around Venezuelan feedstock. It is not a substitute for Iranian crude. It is a different product requiring different industrial infrastructure. US West Texas Intermediate runs at 39 to 40 degrees API with sulfur below 0.25 percent. In theory, the cleanest and easiest crude to process. In practice, it is so light that it does not yield the heavier middle distillates a complex refinery needs to run at full capacity. European and Asian refineries built around medium crudes cannot switch to WTI without blending it with heavier crudes to achieve the molecular weight distribution their process units require. WTI is not a drop-in replacement for Iranian medium. Iranian oil fits where both US shale and Venezuelan heavy do not. It is the liquid that flows through the middle of the global refining system without requiring either the coking infrastructure for heavy crudes or the blending operations for ultra-light shale. That molecular fit is why it commands a persistent premium above comparable grades. It is why Indian refineries maintained Iranian crude purchases through every round of sanctions and negotiated the logistics to keep that flow moving. It is why the Dubai shadow banking and trading network that the UAE is now considering dismantling existed in the first place. The Strait of Hormuz does not just carry oil. It carries the specific category of oil that the global refining system was built to process most efficiently. Closing it does not just reduce supply. It removes the grade of crude that the system runs best on and forces every refinery in the world to run less efficiently on whatever it can find as a substitute. That is the premium embedded in the $82 oil price. Not just volume. Molecular weight. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Peter Fallenius retuiteado
Learn Something
Learn Something@cooltechtipz·
How does a drill make a triangular hole? This mechanism is incredible. 👀
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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
The vast majority of white collar work will be affected very severely, and very soon… However, there are small tiny groups of people who likely will benefit enormously, apart from the owners of the ‘AIs’… but they have thinking that is extremely suitable to disruptions, ‘chaos’, uncertainty, and dislocations… and the ‘thinking’ ‘taught’ in schools/universities is almost the opposite of what is likely needed… and ‘critical thinking’ isn’t it…
Kathleen Tyson@Kathleen_Tyson_

AI hitting hard and fast. I asked a Ghanaian yesterday how many AIs he uses. His answer was instant: 17. He described all their special uses for his development work. BigTech layoffs accelerating. “Last week in our all-hands, leadership was bragging about how the team's "AI leverage ratio" hit 4.2x—meaning each engineer is now shipping what used to take a team of four. They showed the metrics: feature velocity up 180% YoY while headcount's down another 22% since Q4 '25.”

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Peter Fallenius
Peter Fallenius@PeterFallenius·
The vast majority of white collar work will be affected very severely, and very soon… However, there are small tiny groups of people who likely will benefit enormously, apart from the owners of the ‘AIs’… but they have thinking that is extremely suitable to disruptions, ‘chaos’, uncertainty, and dislocations… and the ‘thinking’ ‘taught’ in schools/universities is almost the opposite of what is likely needed… and ‘critical thinking’ isn’t it…
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Kathleen Tyson
Kathleen Tyson@Kathleen_Tyson_·
AI hitting hard and fast. I asked a Ghanaian yesterday how many AIs he uses. His answer was instant: 17. He described all their special uses for his development work. BigTech layoffs accelerating. “Last week in our all-hands, leadership was bragging about how the team's "AI leverage ratio" hit 4.2x—meaning each engineer is now shipping what used to take a team of four. They showed the metrics: feature velocity up 180% YoY while headcount's down another 22% since Q4 '25.”
Tech Layoff Tracker@TechLayoffLover

Just got this DM from a follower: Hey dude, I need to vent this to someone who gets it. I've been at this Big Tech company (you know the one) for almost 6 years now—senior SWE, TC around $350k last year with RSUs still vesting. Thought I was bulletproof after surviving the 2023-2024 bloodbaths and then pivoting hard into the AI org. But fuck, the ground is shifting under my feet faster than I can keep up. Last week in our all-hands, leadership was bragging about how the team's "AI leverage ratio" hit 4.2x—meaning each engineer is now shipping what used to take a team of four. They showed the metrics: feature velocity up 180% YoY while headcount's down another 22% since Q4 '25. The slide literally had a photo of Cursor + Claude Sonnet 4 workflows replacing entire squads. Everyone clapped like trained seals, but I saw three faces go pale—they're the mid-level folks who just finished documenting their entire codebase for the "knowledge distillation" project. My direct report, this solid L5 who joined right after me, got put on a 30-day PIP after his productivity dashboard dipped below the new AI-augmented benchmark. The benchmark? It's literally what the offshore team in India hits using the exact prompts he used to write. He trained them on our internal style guide last quarter—now they're outperforming him at $28/hour all-in. He told me privately he's burning through savings and eyeing real estate licensing because "at least houses don't get refactored by agents overnight." The internal job board is a ghost town. Entry-level SWE roles? Frozen since mid-'25. What few postings go up are tagged "AI-native preferred" and get 2,000+ apps in hours, mostly from people already on H-1Bs or contractors. Meanwhile, they're quietly converting more mid-tier positions to "AI orchestration" contractors—$90-110/hour remote from LATAM or Eastern Europe, no benefits, 6-month contracts. My manager admitted in 1:1 that if the next Grok/Claude/Anthropic release closes the last 10-15% quality gap, we'll probably cut another layer. I'm hanging on because I'm one of the ones who owns the prompt libraries and fine-tuning pipelines now. They need humans to babysit the models until the self-improving loops actually work without constant human intervention. But I see the writing: every time we make the system more autonomous, we make our own roles more optional. The alumni Slack is full of 2024-2025 grads DMing for coffee chats because their referrals bounce—67% underemployed or gigging according to the last poll. One kid I mentored last year is back living with parents after burning through his signing bonus. I used to tell people "just upskill in AI, you'll be fine." Now I feel like a fraud saying it. If I lost this tomorrow, I'd be competing with the same offshore talent I've been helping scale, plus a flood of recently "managed out" seniors. My emergency fund is decent, but the mortgage isn't. Thinking about side hustles in trades or something offline—plumbing, electrical, anything that can't be prompted away. This feels like watching the industry eat itself from the inside while pretending it's evolution. You still feeling secure over there, or is it hitting your shop too? Need to hear I'm not going insane.

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