Rideon Ingalls

4.1K posts

Rideon Ingalls

Rideon Ingalls

@RideonIngalls

Thinking Geopolitics, Philosophy, Human Nature. Read my Substack: https://t.co/Kf9S4gh6fm

Se unió Mart 2024
481 Siguiendo70 Seguidores
Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@akinikamanig Foolish Indians happy they r able to "rattle" China with fake social media stories, while the Chinese r taking over every industry they could have and AI is taking over all the service jobs they used to have. Happy to work as a servant for the rest of ur life?
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Akinika Manig
Akinika Manig@akinikamanig·
Interesting that the Chinese feel we owe them a correct understanding and a solid public opinion when they’ve conditioned generations to not just resent up but to actively spread that resentment for us. Good, they should be rattled. Hell, I don’t think they’re rattled enough just yet.
Muji Singh Rangi@mujifren

"The two sides should also actively guide all sectors of society to form a correct understanding and lay a solid public opinion of each other." Wang Yi statement to Ajit Doval today 😭😭😭 They are fking rattled, top to bottom

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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@cryptopunk7213 Cant reduce cost while paying million dollar salaries to workers while China pays 50k and has 5 times cheaper energy and significant lower cost raw materials that builds a data center
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Ejaaz
Ejaaz@cryptopunk7213·
i just don’t buy the idea anthropic and openai are just going to sit around while chinese models out-compete them on cost they’re obviously going to distill their flagship model into a much (much) cheaper one. the best part about owning the smartest models is you can get them to build a cheaper one :) watch out for the sonnet 5 release this week
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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@Satvik_Pen And yet west is screaming about a Plaza accord to boost yuan exchange rate. Money does not leave in appreciating currencies
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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@teortaxesTex Doubao is the most widely used llm in China. So being frontier is not the big deal
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex·
People (including me) keep predicting that ByteDance Seed will become a juggernaut in AI, and they keep not doing that (outside SeeDance/SeeDream). China is a strange place. Compute and capabilities are STILL uncorrelated. Among big boys, only Alibaba is worth something.
umumu@umi33563

@teortaxesTex So, would you say that "x months behind" means "x months to reach Y level under ideal circumstances"? I'm mainly wondering if Chinese labs have enough compute to reach Mythos level of capabilities. (GDM seems to lack resolve)

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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@wangfei693370 @BeijingDai Modern military hardware is not so simple that you can change a factory producing AC/TV to produce military grade radar or something. Its not WW2 anymore
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wang fei
wang fei@wangfei693370·
@RideonIngalls @BeijingDai Ignorant. China is the largest industrial country in human history. If you don't understand the concept, go ask AI.
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DaiWW
DaiWW@BeijingDai·
Lately, Ukrainian drones have been causing Russia some serious headaches. So I'm wondering — if China were in Russia's position, do you think it could hold up against that kind of drone harassment?
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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@wangfei693370 @BeijingDai As I said, they have the manufacturing capacity, but its producing civil equipment, not military hardware. It will take time to ramp up production of the military stuff and mass drone attacks could destroy those factories before production can ramp up. Not so simple
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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@wangfei693370 @BeijingDai China has the manufacturing to ramp up production of hardware in maybe 1 year once the war starts. But they don't have the overwhelming numbers to be able to dominate in 1 week or something. China has the same problem as US and Russia, too little unit count.
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wang fei
wang fei@wangfei693370·
@RideonIngalls @BeijingDai Do you understand what purchasing power is? It only costs $0.10 to produce a bullet in China, while it might cost $1 in the United States, even though they get the same thing.
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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@wangfei693370 @BeijingDai I study Chinese military hardware counts extensively, and the bottomline based on numbers is that, China is unserious about the military. They r spending the bare minimum and focusing all the money on the economy. China is NOT ready for a full-scale war
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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@BaldingsWorld Looks like u r describing sillicon valley with SpaceX getting 2 trillion dollar valuation for absolutely nothing
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Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板
Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板@BaldingsWorld·
If money never has to be paid back it is easy to make a great business
Anant Goenka@anantgoenka_rpg

I led a @ficci_india CEO delegation to China and visited companies like BYD, Geely, Midea, Mindray. My 3 top takeaways: 1. China is like a no frills fighting ring. Extremely competitive. Businesses operate at margins (2-3%) global boards would never approve. Only market share matters and there is no concept of ROI. The few who survive are the toughest and the best. 2. R&D and automation are at the highest levels. The scale of automation and R&D investment at these companies is built for a 10-year time horizon, not a quarterly one. They celebrate innovators, have walls of patents and dark factories with unmatched efficiency. 3. The state is a silent shareholder everywhere. Cheap capital, land, power, and policy support at a scale that fundamentally changes unit economics. As long as you service interest (@ only 2-3%), debt doesn’t have to be paid back. This isn’t a level playing field.

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Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@wangfei693370 @BeijingDai China may have good drone tech but they don't invest enough in the military to be able to withstand mass drone assaults. It needs a massive budget increase and mass mobilization of men. 2 million wont cut it, 1.5% of GDP wont cut it
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wang fei
wang fei@wangfei693370·
@RideonIngalls @BeijingDai Ignorant. China has the world's most advanced and diverse anti-drone equipment. It is also the world's leading drone producer; no other country can compare to China when it comes to drones.
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Rideon Ingalls retuiteado
Rideon Ingalls
Rideon Ingalls@RideonIngalls·
@BeijingDai No country can stop drones with their current level of forces. China's tiny 2 million will not be able to protect millions of long range drones. They will need to mobilize 10 million with AA guns in every corner. Then they might be able to stop the drones.
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@akinikamanig @cryptopunk7213 @Satvik_Pen @teortaxesTex @wangfei693370 @BeijingDai @BaldingsWorld @elonmusk