Mathieu Savary retuiteado
First since the 1970s seems to be a consistent theme
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Mathieu Savary
232 posts
Mathieu Savary
@SavaryMathieu
strategist @bcaresearch
Montréal, Canada Se unió Temmuz 2015
815 Siguiendo872 Seguidores
Given the constant fog of war and the heavy propagandist lean of communiqués by both Iran and the US, this data series might be the only real dose of objectivity we have.
Juan Correa-Ossa@ElClutch
Flow through Hormuz is still a trickle (below is 7-day moving total which used to average over 800 pre-war). However direction of travel is positive for now and does show Iran might be more willing to earn a bounty from its hostage than kill it altogether
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Fascinating chart from the always insightful @adam_tooze. The financialization of the US economy is an under-discussed latent risk for the dollar. Without equity market gains, flows will collapse (duh!). But without these flows, funding domestic demand will become more complicated, creating a vicious circle of low inflows, low growth and a structural dollar bear market.
Adam Tooze@adam_tooze
Higher average per capita incomes in the US are down to the divergence of the top 10 percent of the income distribution from the rest of the US and the rest of the world. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links.
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From The Western Front in WW1 to The Pacific Theatre in WW2, to the SPY order book today. The battlefield evolves.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
The article talks about Fibonacci retracement but today was the seventh straight session that the S&P closed below its 200-day moving average.
BCA Research@bcaresearch
⚠️ Energy chokepoint keeps pressure on risk Our US Investment Strategist @DougPeta told @business: 🛢️ Until Hormuz flows normalize, inflation pressure is likely to stay elevated 📉 Higher energy costs could keep weighing on global growth ⚠️ From a technical perspective, the worst may not be over yet bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@SavaryMathieu Fast food prices relative to fast food wages are way down. Here's the PCE Price Index for Limited Service Meal, relative to average hourly earnings for limited service restaurant workers (production & nonsupervisory) and indexed to 1995 = 100.
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
🇯🇵 Japan’s shock absorbers still look intact
Our Ex-US DM Chief Strategist @SavaryMathieu told @barronsonline:
⚡ Tokyo can soften a 2026 energy shock via tax cuts and transfers
🛡️ Low rates keep debt manageable, and bond resilience supports confidence
barrons.com/articles/japan…
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
Lots of chatter today on US using ground troops to escalate the situation.
Qeshm: the MOST strategic, but huge and difficult to hold. Full of Iranian military
Kharg: gives US leverage due to oil, but well defended
Abu Musa and Tunbs: iffy strategic value, but offers US plausible deniability that it did not invade Iran
Because Abu Musa and Tunbs are disputed between Iran and UAE, there could be some way for US to spin that as not really that escalatory.
All seems pretty risky to me. Risk-Reward is dubious at best. Market won't like any of it.
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higher yields, higher dollar, higher oil prices... yikes; this combo better ends soon...
Jurrien Timmer@TimmerFidelity
Long yields broke out last week and finished the week at 4.39%. As I have written many times, nothing good happens above 4.5% when the risk-free rate is competitive with risky assets, as is now the case.
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Work by my colleage @Geo_papic show that the pressure to reopen the straight is hitting overdrive. We are getting near the end of this chapter, but that doesn't guarantee a happy conclusion. Either way, big market moves are coming. Good luck everyone!
Marko Papic@Geo_papic
Did we really need a confusing diagram to tell us that we may be in a Mad Max: The Road Warrior world from mid-April onwards? No. But we (@bcaresearch) made one anyway!
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
Saw different versions of a "TACO index" and came up with my own. We already had our TACO for the ME war, and Iran is in the driver's seat for next steps of de-escalation. Still, I have a feeling this index will be useful until Jan. 2029. Just a hunch.
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
Thank you to everyone who joined our events and meetings in Auckland, Sydney, and Melbourne last week with @ElClutch, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist at @bcaresearch.
Juan also had the opportunity to speak at the Family Office Investment Forums hosted by the Global Investment Institute in Sydney and Melbourne.
Key discussions were on the global shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world and how that is reshaping trade, capital flows, and economic relationships. We also explored how the unwinding of global imbalances could drive a weaker US dollar, stronger ex-US equities, and a greater role for commodities, particularly gold, while touching on the outlook for inflation, geopolitical developments, and signs of recovery in Chinese consumer demand.
Thank you again to all who participated; your engagement made these sessions truly valuable.
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
While Iran headlines are driving markets, actions, not rhetoric, will decide what’s next. Our Iran Conflict Daily Dashboard (open to all, not paywalled) helps investors cut through the noise.
(🔗in replies)
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@SavaryMathieu My point is that we should move away from gearing consumption toward housing wealth and toward productivity and income growth.
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So many of Canada's social and economic problems are downstream of housing UNaffordability. May that Red Line fall.🙏
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@RichardDias_CFA Roughly 65% of Canadians are homeowners. I think the wealth effect is a bit broader than just “the asset wealth of boomers”.
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@SavaryMathieu Untrue. The asset wealth of Boomers is not 'the economy'.
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
Big thank you to my good friend @kevinmuir (The MacroTourist) for accusing me of breaking the markets... It is an honor sir.
posts.themacrotourist.com/p/my-buddy-mar…
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Mathieu Savary retuiteado
@BowTiedLobster @killerpainda Learning from others and acknowledging them is a rare skill today.
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My good friend @killerpainda taught me that 1987 also featured a Middle East oil transport problem.
The creativity of others makes me greater.
Lobbie@LobsterFinance
2026 is kind of like 1973, 1987, and 2000, all in one year. In hindsight, it’ll be “obvious.” h/t @shlonjay
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