Talvi Capital

Semiconductors most overbought ever, going for a record 17 days of gains in a row because the nuclear apocalypse will be cockroaches and DRAM

The best Nowcast data on Earth? Solid PMIs from the US were just released, showing that economic momentum is gaining pace despite the war, and this was spot on with our live growth data from Nowcast IQ. The same applies to the euro area, which printed much weaker numbers this morning - also well telegraphed by our data. From our coverage to clients this morning: "The economy, particularly in the US, continues to show no meaningful signs of caving under the energy shock. With the S&P PMIs set to be released later today, current Nowcast IQ projections still point to a greater than 65% probability of rising trends compared to last month. So we feel comfortable saying that we have good odds of getting above consensus PMIs out. The opposite holds true in Europe this morning overall." We remain very proud of what we have built at Nowcast IQ, and I stand firm in my view that it is the best and widest coverage of nowcasts, with a daily feed, in the world. See a glimpse of the growth data here. Above 50% means acceleration. Visit nowcastiq.com to secure a single seat or a company subscription

$ARM measured move -> 250-280 don't sleep, every pullback is an OPPORTUNITY

upside in memory not done yet $SNDK $MU consolidating near highs and semiconductors still confirming bounce is REAL

don't sleep on $HIMS - management disappointed everyone, but it's the retail power that matters 40 inc?

$BIRD going parabolic should not be bullish... but it is $CORZ $CRWV looking PRIMED paired with $ORCL old plays seeing love

$ORCL might be one of the best strong bounce-back long ideas

failed breakdowns - lead to best breakouts and vice-versa keep an eye on software failing to breakdown lower in the coming weeks

do believe software $IGV will NOT find its footing until #Anthropic and #OpenAI IPO until then - too much uncertainty and flawlessness is bound to be seen

looks like a ZBT trend day is incoming + we are receiving closures below 100 on $CL even if you are parked majority cash, you missed only a piece - trends tend to last longer, and many setups are brewing either wait for a weekly close, OR -- wait for a small pullback

OIL hanging above 100 is a red flag can long equities and use margin ONLY when it falls below 100 on consecutive closures AND main indices start trailing above 21EMA on the dailies and rather weeklies $SPX $QQQ $CL

Bill is usually a contrarian indicator, but this time the valuations speak volume in the long run, such prices will be seen as a discount, especially the MAG7 rack

SpaceX trying to launch their IPO ASAP is not exactly the bullish sign you're looking for $SPCE $ASTS $RKLB

$BTC forming yet another bear flag would wait til weekend resolution and check if there are any upcoming dips into early next week those could be viewed as short-term dip buying opportunities within individual names and $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Potential SPACEX IPO rumors this week or the next: $SPCE $ASTS $RKLB and many more active names to experience bounces from their temporarily oversold conditions to participate in the short-term upcoming rally

BREAKING: Perplexity Computer can now access real-time options chains and can execute real options trades via a (free) API. You can pull quotes, scan full option chains, check delta/IV on any contract, view your portfolio, and place live orders all through a single conversation Here's how to set it up step by step (easy):

This fund has a 20% exposure rate for anthropic and a 20% exposure rate for open AI and people don’t know how to act… Up 811% in one week😭

was the correct approach: - no closure above -> no play capital preservation mode and only small pieces of DCA recommended missiles are still en route and we would wait for the officials from Israel/Iran to confirm peace talks before diving in

not the place to short after everything that has happened - a technical bounce could be underway, but we will use that as an opportunity to reduce long exposure much damage has been taken, hence rate of change makes it difficult for us to remain mid-term bullish into summer

• Gold: worst week since March 1983, -15% on month. Support ~$4,300. Target $6K 2H • Silver: -27.5% on month, -44% from Jan highs. Oversold. Need $92 for ATH • View: short-term bottom near/reached. Once risk stabilizes → metals roar back