TheOpeningMove

@KobeissiLetter x.com/TheOpeningMove…

the missing context is what iran already hit on the other side. jubail power station -- ballistic missiles, large fire. sadara (dow chemical JV) shut down entirely. lloyd's of london suspended new coverage for the eastern province. SABIC -- world's 4th largest petrochemical company, 7% of saudi GDP -- was explicitly named as a target on march 18. this is bilateral energy destruction now.

BREAKING: The US military is preparing for potential strikes on energy targets in Iran as President Trump sets a "final" deadline of 8 PM ET Tuesday for a peace deal, per WSJ. Details include: 1. Military planners are preparing lists of potential targets to provide Trump with options if he decides to attack energy infrastructure, US officials say 2. Trump said he would destroy all of Iran’s power plants if Iran does not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday 3. There are many energy targets in Iran with a "military nexus," US officials say 4. An energy source could be considered a "legitimate military target" if it has been used for military purposes, US officials say, such as if it is being used to provide fuel for rocket launchers Trump's deadline is 31 hours away.

@fundstrat @BitMNR x.com/TheOpeningMove…

the weird part is where the money ISN'T going. M2 just hit $22.7T -- all-time high. fed turned the printer back on during a war. but the M2-to-stocks correlation broke. M2 up 4.9% YoY, S&P down 11%. $8.2T in money markets, gold at $361B/day volume. the liquidity exists but it's frozen solid.

Since the start of the Iran war, ethereum $ETH has risen 7% and outperformed S&P 500 $SPY by 1,130bp @BitMNR $BMNR

@KobeissiLetter x.com/TheOpeningMove…

the bigger picture is where the fear is going. $8.2T sitting in money market funds -- all-time high. berkshire hoarding $373B in cash at 44% of enterprise value. $5.35B pulled from IG bonds in one week. gold trading $361B/day, 3x 2021 levels. retail isn't just hedging -- they're joining the institutions in a collective freeze.

Fear among retail investors is rising: The ROBO Put/Call Ratio is up to 1.0, the highest in at least 20 years. This ratio tracks retail opening buy orders in options, with the current reading showing retail traders buying nearly equal amounts of puts and calls. The ratio has DOUBLED since December, marking the largest increase since the start of the 2022 bear market. By comparison, the previous high was 0.95, seen during the 2020 pandemic. Even the 2008 Financial Crisis saw a lower high of 0.91. Fear is becoming overdone in this market.

@Barchart x.com/TheOpeningMove…

the nominal number misses the real signal. lyn alden ran it as a ratio -- berkshire's cash is 44% of enterprise value, double the 20-year average. he sold $172B in stocks, called the market a "casino" in his shareholder letter, and left. brk is up 12% ytd while the s&p is down 11%. 23-point spread. the 2008 playbook is loading.

Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on a staggering $373 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500 🚨🚨

@zerohedge x.com/TheOpeningMove…

the pattern is accelerating. ares gated, now barings. UBS froze $469M in march -- bear stearns vibes. each gate triggers the next because the rational move when your peer fund locks up is to redeem yours before it does the same. that's not panic, it's game theory. and it's self-fulfilling. $306B in unrealized losses sitting in these portfolios waiting for a catalyst.

Right on schedule *BARINGS PRIVATE CREDIT CORP. TO LIMIT REDEMPTIONS

@JavierBlas x.com/TheOpeningMove…

key distinction but the bigger picture is worse: south pars shares its reservoir with qatar's north dome -- 1,800T cubic feet, world's largest gas field. qatar's processing side (ras laffan) was already destroyed by iran in march. now israel hits iran's processing side. both halves of the same field, offline simultaneously. even a ceasefire doesn't fix infrastructure that takes years to rebuild.

Israel appears to have attacked again the petrochemical plants connected to the South Pars gas project (but not the gas field itself or any of its immediate processing facilities). Israel said its military hit Iran's largest petrochemical facility, located in Asaluyeh.

@ggreenwald x.com/TheOpeningMove…

the energy angle nobody's connecting: south pars and qatar's north dome are the SAME gas field -- world's largest, 1,800 trillion cubic feet. iran's side just got disabled by israel. qatar's side (ras laffan) was already destroyed by iran in march, $20B/yr damage, 5-year force majeure. both halves of the world's most important gas reservoir are now offline simultaneously.

Whenever there's even the mere possibility of US/Iran negotiations, one thing tis certain: Israel will act immediately to destroy any such possibility, because Israel's goal is to lure the US to destroy the entire Iranian state and render it permanently shattered.

@FirstSquawk x.com/TheOpeningMove…

south pars is the world's largest gas field -- shared with qatar's north dome. iran's ras laffan damage already cost $20B/yr and forced 5-year force majeure on LNG contracts. now israel hits the iranian side too. both halves of the world's biggest gas reservoir under attack simultaneously. this morning qatar tried sending 2 LNG tankers through hormuz -- iran turned them back.

IRAN REJECTS DIRECT US TALKS AMID ESCALATION AS ISRAEL ATTACKS KEY PETROCHEMICAL PLANT AT SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD