Gentry

What this is really showing is our grids are being asked to do more than it was built for. Your bill pays for two things: electrons and plumbing. The electrons (wholesale power) haven’t been persistently expensive, natural gas has even been cheaper at times but the plumbing (poles, wires, substations, transformers, wildfire hardening, storm resilience, cyber, and interconnection work) is exploding in cost. Utilities are pouring record capex into a network that’s old, congested, and not designed for data center clusters, EV charging, heat pumps, or extreme weather. Those dollars get rate based, and with higher interest rates the carrying cost of every new project is bigger, so the price per kWh drifts up even when fuel isn’t the culprit. On the supply side we retired a lot of firm coal and nuclear faster than we added firm replacements. Wind and solar help on energy, but they don’t always show up when the grid needs capacity. That means paying for backup like gas peakers, batteries, and capacity payments plus more transmission to move surplus from where the wind blows to where people live. Until long duration storage and new firm low carbon generation scale, we’re running a two system grid: one to harvest cheap variable energy and another to guarantee reliability. Two systems cost more than one. The bottleneck now is wires and time. Interconnection queues are jammed, permitting takes years, and congestion rents rise because power can’t get to load without expensive detours. Add regional issues like wildfire mitigation in the West, gas pipeline constraints in the Northeast, hurricane hardening in the South and you get a national average that climbs even when wholesale prices don’t. Bottom line is prices are signaling infrastructure strain. If we want cheaper, steadier power, we need to build the boring stuff faster (transmission and distribution), add firm, clean capacity (nuclear, advanced geo, gas with carbon management), scale storage, and use smarter pricing so demand shifts off peak. Until then, the chart is less about electricity being scarce and more about a grid that’s being stretched and financed like never before.