History Eye

Many people question Moutai’s price hike, but not the price increase itself—what they question is raising prices during the off-season. During the off-season, shipments are low, so it’s easier to control volume after a price hike, and any problems will have a smaller impact. During peak season, increasing supply often pushes prices down, so raising prices and controlling volume in the off-season, then stabilizing prices and boosting sales in peak season is standard practice. The price increase is small, but its significance is huge. Based on past experience with Luzhou Laojiao’s price hikes, small, steady increases like slicing a sausage are the safest approach. Consumers barely notice, market fluctuations are mild, and the policy can be reversed at any time if implementation runs into issues. The impact of Moutai’s price hike on the industry: first, the darkest period for the industry is over. Second, it opens up room for other companies to raise prices later. Wuliangye benefits most directly. With less pressure on Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao will also face less pressure, and this effect will spread step by step. Will Wuliangye follow with a price hike? The answer is no. But the pressure on Wuliangye’s Puwu will ease, helping its market price return to normal. In this cycle, Puwu dropped from 920 yuan to 780 yuan; the bottom-line target is to rebound to 850 yuan. If even that can’t be achieved, I really don’t know what to say. If Puwu returns to 850 yuan, it will be roughly in line with the market price of high-end Guojiao, reducing pressure on Guojiao. To be fair, Luzhou Laojiao got lucky this time—holding prices is indeed good for the brand. But this must be done without a major drop in performance, and striking that balance is very difficult. The economy hasn’t fully recovered yet, so we need to keep observing. Some people predict 2027 will be the best time to invest in baijiu. Yeah, right. I’ve said before that the market always trades on expectations ahead of actual performance. By the time you hear the cuckoo call, spring is already long gone.

@DXDWX999 @grok 事實查核

💥【网友投稿】3 月 29 日 12 点，北京市房山区大韩继大集，疑似有人报复社会开铲车冲撞人群，据现场视频显示多名摊贩和路人被撞倒在地，生死不明‼️ 🔥 恐怖！铲车碾压惨景‼️

Baijiu is ready for a massive breakout! Moutai just raised the price of Feitian for the first time in 8 years. This bold move shows they’ve moved past previous constraints and market fears. Even though the industry is still in a difficult cycle, this "counter-cyclical" price hike actually aligns with market reality. Last year’s controversial channel reforms have proven successful—sales are up, and the inventory bloat caused by distributors is finally being addressed. Moutai is essentially forcing its partners to clean up their acts. With inventory levels normalizing and a successful price hike under its belt, the recovery for the sector is officially underway. Historically, Moutai breaks the ice first, and the rest of the industry follows. Give it some time. Baijiu is about to explode. Notes for the record. Not investment advice. #贵州茅台(SH600519） #chinesestocks

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (SH601869) Based on the annual report of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, we can forecast its profit for 2026. Its optical preform capacity is 4,000 tons, and the estimated sales volume of optical fiber available for sale in 2026 is 133 million fiber-kilometers. Excluding profits from subsidiaries, the net profit of the optical fiber business in Q4 2025 was 200 million yuan. In Q4 2025, 30 million fiber-kilometers were sold, with a net profit of 7 yuan per kilometer and an average selling price of 25 yuan per kilometer. The average price in Q1 2026 is approximately 60 yuan per kilometer, resulting in a net profit of 42 yuan per kilometer. Multiplying by 30 million fiber-kilometers, the estimated net profit for Q1 is around 1.2 billion yuan. Q2 profit is expected to increase by more than 50% quarter-on-quarter. Hengtong Optic-Electric (SH600487) New Optic (SZ300502) #Chinesestock

I haven’t posted many articles lately, but I’ve nailed the rhythm of this market adjustment perfectly (from staying below 4130, to 4000, then to 3800) because I’ve been busy. The market performance hasn’t been great, but it’s not hard to make profits against the trend as long as you get the rhythm right. I’ll post more articles and communicate with everyone more often moving forward. Market outlook: Based on Friday’s trading, the index still needs a rebound to fill the gap. However, there will definitely be a second pullback later on, so controlling the rhythm is crucial — which means keeping position sizes in check, as I’ve always emphasized. For the medium to long term, the bull market expectation remains unchanged. I still hold my original view: there will be a spectacular bull market in 2026. AI technology: The market performance of AI tech hardware — including electricity, optics, memory, PCBs, and liquid cooling — is driven by China-US market resonance and AI-related news. If the corresponding tech sectors in the US stock market continue to weaken, this upward resonance will disappear, and we need to be extra cautious about high-position tech stocks in our market. Conversely, if US stocks stabilize, the tech main trend will still have room to continue. From Friday’s market action, lithium batteries have positive expectations. After the power sector broke through sentiment-wise, they may start a major industrial trend. This can be compared to the trend of the cross-strait theme — the commercial aerospace industry trend. For these two sectors, my current stock selection focus is on leading lithium miners and high-flexibility targets like lithium battery VC (solvents). I’m looking for stocks with good chart patterns and high price elasticity. In addition, innovative pharmaceuticals have quietly strengthened. The strong independent performance of US biotech stocks has also started to lift the sector. For now, this is mainly an oversold rebound, and we’ll watch for sustainability going forward. Commercial aerospace keeps getting positive catalysts from SpaceX. The strong performers are still stocks related to SpaceX. Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. (SZ002460) Shinechem New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZ301292) #Chinesestock

美诺华(SH603538) The Core Reasons Why Minorca’s Stock Could Hit 100 RMB: Solid Earnings + New Drug Breakthroughs + Market Trends Aligning Minorca’s current price is 39.18 RMB, but the target is 100 RMB (a 22 billion RMB market cap). This isn't just hype; it is based on a real turnaround in profits and breakthroughs in new medicine. 1. Solid Financial Foundation: The Turnaround is Real The company’s 2025 results proved they are out of the slump, with growth coming from three main areas. Profits are beating expectations: 2025 net profit grew by about 50% to 84%, showing the business is getting much healthier. Finished Drugs (Formulations): This is the main money-maker with high profit margins (over 60%). They’ve secured government contracts for the next 3 years and are expanding fast in Europe and Southeast Asia. Raw Materials (API): Prices for their standard heart and blood pressure meds are stabilizing. The big growth here comes from "Semaglutide" (weight loss drug components). Since the patent expires in March 2026, Minorca’s order books for these raw materials are already full through Q3 2026. Contract Manufacturing (CDMO): They have long-term deals with giants like Merck. In 2026, two major projects with Merck will start generating real global sales. 2. Breakthroughs in New Medicine: Moving Beyond Just Ingredients Minorca is transforming into an innovative drug company, which usually commands a much higher valuation. JH389 (The "Weight Loss" Probiotic): This is their star product. It’s an oral probiotic that mimics weight-loss drugs (GLP-1) but isn't classified as a "prescription drug." This means it avoids strict regulations and side effects like diarrhea, making it attractive to a huge audience. Clinical data from March 2026 shows significant weight loss results with zero safety issues. It is expected to launch in Europe (Italy, etc.) in the first half of 2026 and could become a billion-dollar product. Future Pipeline: They are also working on advanced treatments for fatty liver disease and cancer to ensure long-term growth. 3. The Timeline to 100 RMB (The Catalysts) Short Term (Early 2026 - Target 50-60 RMB): The 2025 annual report and 2026 Q1 report will confirm high growth. JH389 gets its sales permit in Europe, and the first weight-loss raw material orders start shipping. Medium Term (Late 2026 - Target 70-80 RMB): JH389 sales numbers come in strong, and the company starts the process to sell it in China. New data from their fatty liver drug (MN0201) looks good, making the company’s "tech" more valuable. Long Term (2027 - Target 100 RMB): JH389 becomes a global hit, contributing massive profits. The market stops viewing them as a simple "chemical factory" and starts valuing them as a "biotech innovator." By 2027, profits are expected to exceed 350 million RMB, making a 100 RMB stock price a realistic valuation. 美诺华(SH603538)

The memory bubble is about to burst. Prices of top‑selling DDR5 memory on Amazon have plummeted. Google’s TurboQuant technology has slashed large model memory usage by a staggering 6 times. This means the previous narrative of “unlimited AI memory demand” has been completely shattered. It is recommended to reduce positions in high‑level, high‑valuation CPO, server manufacturing, and memory chip stocks. The algorithm revolution is eliminating hardware premiums. Never catch the last baton. #chinastock

Many people's understanding of China's real estate market is that it has been falling continuously since 2021, with a decline of 40% so far, but they still think it will drop another 40% and keep falling. This kind of thinking is typical of predicting the future purely based on past experience, just like when lithium carbonate fell to 50,000, people thought it would drop to 20,000 or 30,000. If housing prices fall another 40%, how much will be left? A further 40% drop can only happen if household incomes drop sharply, meaning long-term negative economic growth, which obviously has a very low probability. In reality, most people only buy when prices rise and refuse to buy when prices fall. When housing prices are falling, they will never buy. When prices start rising, they don't believe it at first. After prices go up for a while, they are half-skeptical. When prices rise a lot, they panic and rush in to buy. In fact, real estate has hedging value, just like gold. The value of a house does not lie in the building itself, but in its location, which is scarce. Since it has hedging properties, it is impossible for prices to only rise or only fall forever. #chinestock

1. Delisting of the Xinhua CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560890) The Xinhua CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF (560890) is about to be delisted. As of February 5, 2026, the fund’s net asset value remained below 50 million RMB for 50 consecutive business days, triggering the termination clause in its contract. • Key Dates: February 12 was the last trading day; liquidation began on February 13. The official delisting date is April 1, 2026. How to avoid this "trap": While liquidation doesn't mean you lose your principal, it "freezes" your capital for months, which is incredibly frustrating. To stay safe: • For On-shore (Exchange-traded) ETFs: Choose funds with a scale of at least 500 million RMB to ensure healthy liquidity. • For Off-shore/OTC Funds: If it's an ETF Feeder Fund, check the size of the "target" ETF it tracks. If it’s an independent fund, ensure its scale is at least 200 million RMB. 2. The Shift in Gold Prices For the past two years, gold’s bull run was fueled by three pillars: the Fed’s rate-cut cycle, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying. However, following the Middle East conflict in late February, these factors have flipped. Gold has gone from "market darling" to "market outcast" overnight. • The Fed Factor: With WTI crude oil staying above $80/barrel, inflation is sticky. Instead of cuts, there is now talk of an emergency rate hike within the next two weeks. • Safe-Haven Shift: Historically, conflict drives money into gold. This time, likely due to gold's high price point, investors chose the US Dollar as their safe haven instead. • The "Mystery" Seller: Gold recently saw a staggering 24.3% drop. We finally found the culprits: Central Banks. • Turkey: After a decade of buying, they sold 6 tons in mid-March and another 52.4 tons the following week. • Poland: The central bank governor proposed selling gold reserves to double the country's defense budget. Revised Outlook: I’m lowering my expectations. While I previously hoped gold would hit 6,000 by the end of 2026, I now expect a volatile, sideways year ranging between 4,000 and 5,500. 3. Closing Thoughts Much of our pain comes from the gap between our high expectations and a harsh reality. As noted in The Almanack of Naval Ravikant, happiness is essentially peace of mind. When reality fails to meet our goals, anxiety moves in. Let’s hope the situation in the Middle East doesn't escalate further. Have a great weekend, everyone. #Chinesestock

I still remember buying CNOOC when the US imposed sanctions on the company. At that time, its share price was only around 6 yuan. Up to now, even without counting dividends, the stock has risen about five to six times. Sometimes I find it quite amusing when I think about it. I spend all day researching various stocks back and forth. Yet all that effort turns out worse than simply holding ZIJIN MINING and CNOOC for the long term. The return from holding these two steadily is actually much higher than what I got from constant research and trading. Great companies, supported by a strong industry cycle, can look past short-term crises. They end up becoming true friends of time. #Chinesestock market

泸州老窖核心发展策略解析 对于成熟的高端白酒品牌而言，维持价格体系的战略坚定性，是保障品牌长久发展生命力的核心关键。 白酒品牌的价格如果出现大幅波动，无论是暴涨还是暴跌，都会对品牌价值造成极大的损害。 即便品牌力相较普五存在一定差距，高度国窖能够在零售价与之齐平的情况下，实现百亿营收规模。 这一成绩足以说明，每个高端白酒品牌都拥有属于自身的固定且专属的消费群体。 企业把高度国窖定位为整个产品矩阵的价格标杆，充分发挥其塑造价格、支撑品牌价值的作用。 短期面临的业绩承压，是企业主动选择的长期战略，并非被动的经营困境。 通过推动低度系列产品与特曲系列产品放量销售，能够有效对冲高度产品业绩下滑带来的影响。 只要长期坚持这一战略不动摇，三年内品牌在消费者心智中的高端地位必然会得到显著提升。 我想要表达的核心观点一直如此，并非是刻意拉踩五粮液。 部分人产生这样的误解，本质是认知层面存在局限，即便详细解释也难以达成共识。 泸州老窖坚持挺价的底气，有着多方面坚实的支撑，并非盲目坚守。 当前企业已经积累了数千万真实有效的消费者数据，对渠道的掌控能力也实现了大幅增强。 历经十余年的市场深耕，企业与合作经销商建立起了稳固的利益共同体关系。 公司前五大客户，均是由全国核心经销商入股成立的品牌专营公司。 合作经销商不只是单纯赚取差价的销售方，更是与企业共同建设品牌的重要伙伴。 目前品牌的全国化布局已经基本完成，仅在华南、华中部分区域还有进一步提升的空间。 企业现阶段按照经销商的实际销售能力进行货品发放，为高度国窖的挺价工作打下了扎实基础。 企业推行的五码合一技术，能够从技术层面彻底杜绝经销商窜货、乱价的违规行为。 企业推行挺价策略，并非只是单纯守住价格底线，而是配套了多元化的价值提升举措。 企业在全国设立了33个省级营销服务中心，专门聚焦高端圈层与精英消费群体运营。 通过持续升级消费者服务体验，为品牌和产品创造更多附加价值。 北京市场销售额从1亿增长到10亿，就是消费者圈层精细化运营的成功案例。 那些无法精准触达消费者、无法收集消费数据的盲目营销模式，终究会被行业淘汰。 企业正加快建设数智营销体系，整合全产业链各类资源，推动经营模式从渠道驱动向消费需求驱动转型。 依靠生态化的竞争模式，有效抵御白酒行业的周期性波动风险。 公司旗下100-300元价位段的大众消费产品，市场恢复态势十分向好。 低度产品在各区域市场的表现，明显优于同区域高度产品的市场表现。 特曲系列的低度产品销售额，已经超过了同系列高度产品的销售额。 当下低度产品的销售额，已经占到公司总销售额的50%。 在成都、北京、江苏等核心市场，消费者对低度产品的认可度一直在持续提升。 低度化发展是中国白酒行业未来的必然趋势，这一趋势已经成为行业共识。 通常经济发展水平越高的地区，消费者对低度白酒的消费需求就越旺盛。 泸州老窖在低度酒领域，已经打造出了难以被复制的技术壁垒。 企业始终坚持有机单粮酿造工艺，酿出的酒体口感纯净、味道醇厚。 采用原酒勾调原酒的传统浓香工艺，最大程度保留酒体的本真风味。 国窖系列、特曲60版的基酒储存周期长达5年，中国品味系列基酒储存周期更是达到10年。 充足的年份基酒储备，为低度酒的品质提供了强有力的保障。 目前公司低度酒的核心产品是38度系列，也是市场认可度最高的低度产品。 28度低度产品因酒体稳定性尚未达标，目前仍在开展长期质量监测与技术优化。 与此同时，企业的低度化布局已经拓展至更多品类，覆盖更广泛的消费场景。 除了传统低度白酒，还布局了养生酒、2-3度的啤酒、12-13度的果酿酒等品类。 2026年，企业将确立清晰的产品策略，也就是高度与低度双线发展，重点聚焦低度化布局。 针对创新体系产品，坚定朝着低度化、年轻化的方向研发与推广。 同步推进“百城计划”，针对年轻消费群体、女性消费群体，加大品鉴推广活动的力度。 提前储备新的消费人群，拓展更多元的消费场景，为长期发展蓄力。 市场拓展层面，在巩固华北、西南等传统优势区域的基础上，重点布局江苏、华南等潜力市场。 紧抓华南地区酱香酒热度退潮的市场机遇，抢占对应的市场份额。 在华东市场，面对五粮液低度产品的市场竞争，企业将保持主动进攻的态势。 企业的核心竞争优势，在于对消费者数据的精准掌控，以及专业的产品鉴赏服务能力。 费用投放与渠道管理方面，企业会保持整体营销费用的规模稳定，不会盲目缩减或增加。 重点优化费用投放方式，进一步提升投放精准度与资金使用效率。 在渠道分润上，做到结算清晰、发放及时，彻底取消模糊不清的奖励机制。 消费者促销、宴席合作、产品品鉴等方面的费用投放，维持原有的规模不变。 同时加大对高端圈层营销的投入，深化圈层运营效果。 企业会结合现金流变动情况与行业发展趋势，综合测算后续的分红方案。 。 #中国股票市场

Eric Trump：我们做了史上最成功的3个加密项目，赚走了10亿美元 特朗普二儿子Eric Trump近期亲口在采访中承认：我们做了3个最成功的加密项目： TRUMP模因币，发布后一飞冲天，市值一度超越以太坊； NFT 早期入场，大获成功，赚得盆满钵满； World Liberty Financial，目前全球增速最快的稳定币项目； American Bitcoin 在西德克萨斯挖矿，刚刚登陆纳斯达克。 而另一面，过去1年多以来，加密市场的钱越来越难赚，流动性丢失，项目裁员，散户损失惨重，许多人坚持不住离场。 有意思的是，特朗普家族最成功的这3个项目，赚走的超10亿美元，恰恰都发生在这段时间里。 财富没有凭空消散，只是换了归属 版本二（简洁书面化，更精炼） Eric Trump：我们做了史上最成功的3个加密项目，赚走了10亿美元 特朗普二儿子Eric Trump近期亲口在采访中承认：我们做了3个最成功的加密项目： TRUMP模因币，发布后一飞冲天，市值一度超越以太坊； NFT 早期入场，大获成功，赚得盆满钵满； World Liberty Financial，目前全球增速最快的稳定币项目； American Bitcoin 在西德克萨斯挖矿，刚刚登陆纳斯达克。 而另一面，过去1年多以来，加密市场的钱越来越难赚，流动性丢失，项目裁员，散户损失惨重，许多人坚持不住离场。 有意思的是，特朗普家族最成功的这3个项目，赚走的超10亿美元，恰恰都发生在这段时间里。 财富并未消失，只是完成了转移

@mubeitech @fact check

2600万美元的现金报价。 高出当地市价整整10倍。 肯塔基州的一户农家刚刚把这笔巨款拒之门外。 买家是匿名的AI巨头。 大概率是谷歌、Meta或者亚马逊。 他们看中了梅森县的这片农田。 想把它推平建一个庞大的数据中心。 为了2600万放弃种地，傻吗？ 硅谷精英觉得这帮老农民根本不懂经济。 但82岁的Ida和女儿把账算得比华尔街还清。 土地一旦被吞噬，粮食的根就断了。 巨头的数据中心只会抽干水源，留下污染。 镇上有人跑来游说。 说科技巨头能带来就业，能带来繁荣。 Ida的回答很干脆：这帮人嘴里没一句实话。 这就只是一场收割土地的骗局。 这片土地他们家族守了四代人。 大萧条最艰难的时候，是这里的麦田养活了全美排队领救济粮的人。 华盛顿和硅谷画的大饼，忽悠不了真正在泥土里摸爬滚打的普通人。 老农民死死护住了这片供养过国家的土地。 硅谷的无底限支票，买不动肯塔基的麦田。

@RealMidasTrend @grok 這是什麼電視劇？

第一次看这个电视剧片段。好震撼。 养三只鸭子就是社会主义，养四只鸭子🦆就是资本主义。养了12只鸭子，就是资本主义的尾巴又粗又长。 要是没有邓公推动改革开放，真的不敢想象中国的今天是什么样子？

這是人類前所未有的價值儲存貨幣，沒有政府背書，沒有機構背書，有自然人自發組成的貨幣。 今時今日大型AI 大型言語模型的出現，全球都在擴展算力，換言之，算力足夠而電力跟不上的情況下，全球發展大規模的電力基礎設施，到時候電力和算力雙重疊加，全球都爭奪比特幣的記帳權，到BTC -2028年減半，產出一顆比特幣成本是20萬美元一顆。 #btc #eth #mstr #bmnr

Gemini太好用了， 研究Micro-Strategy （MSTR)2021-2025年， 5年的財報中。等待金融危機中， 2026年美國市場會一下跌20-30%， 我們拭目以待吧。

@WhaleInsider @grok what’s Kalshi

JUST IN: Brokers are expanding access to Kalshi for hedge funds and institutions, bringing event markets closer to mainstream financial adoption.

@Himalaya_bear1 @grok 還是不太懂 可以用最白的白話文數學的方式告訴我嗎？

从 1 美元到 2.71828 —— e 的伟大发现 在数学中，最重要的数字之一是 e，它被称为欧拉数 (Euler's number)，约等于 2.71828。这个数字出现在许多领域，比如人口增长、放射性衰变以及微积分中的许多公式。 但与源自圆周测量的 \pi 不同，e 有一个非常实际的起源：它源于对银行账户里“钱”的思考。 这个概念由瑞士数学家雅各布·伯努利 (Jacob Bernoulli) 在 17 世纪后期提出。当时他正试图理解一个关于复利的简单问题。 想象一下，你把 1 美元存入一个年利率为 100% 的银行账户。如果利息在年底只结算一次，你的钱就会翻倍。一年后，它的价值变为 2 美元。但伯努利注意到了一些非常有趣的现象：如果银行结算利息的次数更频繁会怎样？ 利息可以在一年内结算多次。每结算一次，产生的利息也会开始产生新的利息，这就是所谓的“复利”。 伯努利计算了当利息结算次数越来越多时会发生什么： • 每年结算一次： $2.000000 • 每半年结算一次： $2.25 • 每季度结算一次： $2.441406 • 每月结算一次： 约 $2.61 • 每周结算一次： 约 $2.69 • 每天结算一次： 约 $2.7146 你会发现，钱虽然一直在增长，但每次增长的幅度都在缩小。例如，从每周结算改为每天结算，只增加了几美分。于是，伯努利观察到了一个更极端的现象：如果银行每小时、每分钟，甚至每秒钟都结算利息呢？ 随着复利频率越来越高，总价值会越来越接近一个特殊的数字：2.718281828… 它永远不会超过这个值，但会无限接近它。这个数字就是著名的常数 e。 如果 1 美元以 100% 的利率在“连续复利”的情况下增长一年，最终的金额恰好是： e ≈ 2.71828 所以，e 这个数字并不是在研究形状或几何时被发现的，它源于一个与金钱相关的非常实际的问题。 从这个简单的想法出发，数学家们发现了一个后来成为数学和科学领域最重要的常数之一。 如今，e 出现在从金融到物理的各个领域。然而，它的故事始于一件非常平凡的事情：银行账户里的一美元，正在静静地产生利息。