ETHVision🪙

@ethereumJoseph amazing！Incredible！this is my moment of glory🫡😇

Google 刚刚发布了 TurboQuant —— 一个革命性的新算法。 它的作用是：在几乎不损失质量的前提下，让大语言模型（LLM）变得更小、更快。 这意味着什么？ 即使是只有 16GB 内存的 Mac Mini，现在也能在本地完整运行那些极其强大的 AI 模型了！ 而且是完全离线、免费、安全地运行。 这项技术还将带来以下重大改变： 上下文窗口大幅扩大：以前长上下文会严重变慢和掉质量，现在 slowdown 和退化大幅减少； 手机也能跑高质量 AI：未来高端手机将可以本地运行顶级 AI 模型； 速度和质量同时提升，价格却会下降。 那些以前嘲笑你买 Mac Mini 的人，现在脸都要肿了。 Google 这次把 TurboQuant 完全开源，没有自己独占。这一点尤其值得称赞——很多大 AI 实验室很可能都会把这种技术藏起来当核心竞争力，而 Google 选择把它公开，推动全人类 AI 技术共同进步。

先说明下，这里所说的内容没有任何意愿搞流量或攻击BTC，且如果BTC真出问题，会是整个行业的问题。 下面只是纯粹探讨，面对未来量子计算的威胁，BTC怎么办？ 目前加密社区有个概念叫Q-DAY，具体是说，量子计算机可以用“Shor算法”破解现在BTC和ETH采用的ECDSA签名算法的那一天。 这意味着，私钥不再安全，钱包的锁不再牢靠。 如果说，在之前，量子攻击是天方夜谭，而如今这个威胁并非不存在。 按照目前量子专家的说法，大概范围是在2031-2038年之间，也就是快则5-6年，慢则12-13年，威胁就变得实际可见。 这里跟量子硬件+算法进步太快有关，按照量子专家们的说法，以前想要破解ECDSA，需要几百万甚至上千万物理量子比特。 而最近两年，算法优化+新纠错码将会让其以10倍+量级下降，按照目前算法+硬件的指数增长，最快5-6年，就有概率产生实际威胁。 因此，在Q-Day来临之前，不管是BTC还是ETH，都需要换上“新锁”（后量子签名）。 以太坊目前有明确的路线图以及预期完成时间（预计在2029年左右完成后量子升级）。 BTC社区的路线图目前还没最终明确下来。 由于历史原因，BTC社区的风格，一直是“能不动就不动”，支持不可篡改和向后兼容的原则，任何升级，在BTC都很难。 直到上个月，BTC才第一次把量子防护写进路线图。 2月11日，BIP 360（Pay-to-Merkle-Root），正式加入BIP仓库。 核心是，移除Taproot的部分“钥匙路径”，只保留Script-paht，实现大幅降低量子暴露。未来支持更容易插进量子安全的签名方案。 不过，它不强制任何人升级，只是为以后的软分叉铺路。 而完整的迁移计划（后量子迁移BIP），还处于讨论阶段，还没有正式采用，大概花5-10年时间： 第一阶段鼓励迁移：禁止新资金流向老地址，鼓励社区把币转移到新量子安全地址； 第二阶段新币强制：老地址还能花，但新币必须用新锁； 最后一个阶段，是争议最大的，因为涉及到老地址资金的处理： 是否将老地址资金冻结或者烧毁？ 这里涉及到较大比例BTC的处理：大约25-33%的BTC（大约600-700万枚处于量子暴露状态，包括中本聪的100万，以及其它永久丢失的BTC）。这样做的话，违反了BTC社区一直以来的原则：不可干涉。 还有意见说，无须冻结这些BTC，谁拿走算谁的。 如果是这样，600-700万枚BTC会被人拿走，假如当时BTC已涨至30万美元一枚，这意味着，这部分总价值在1.8万亿-2.1万亿美元。 这么大规模的BTC流入市场，难以想象，最终的市场会变成什么样子。 总言之，现在BTC的量子防护路线，最大的难点，不在于技术，而在于治理困境：如何协调社区。 如何处理老地址的BTC是未来BTC如何量子安全路线图的最大障碍。 或许未来的1-2年，社区会逐渐从争吵，慢慢走向共识。毕竟时不我待。

Danny Ryan: Wall Street has flipped from terrified to use Ethereum to eager in the last 12 months “I’m a TradFi guy now — I talk to banks and financial institutions,” Etherealize co-founder and key architect behind Ethereum’s “Merge” upgrade Danny Ryan jokes. Danny was surprised to learn that banks understood decentralization and used terms like “credible neutrality.” He explains: “Their lens of the world is counterparty risk and the reduction or elimination of it. And a decentralized and resilient platform represents that. So when these institutions are actually thinking about their business case and utilizing this technology — which they went from being terrified to utilize it to eager to utilize it over the last 12 months — they actually care about Ethereum’s values. They care about the things we’ve been ensuring exists for the past decade because they don’t want a counterparty.” Source: @Bankless (Jul 2025)

以太坊基金会（ Ethereum Foundation ）发文阐述 L1 与 L2 的未来生态愿景。文章指出， L1 将保持作为全球结算与 DeFi 枢纽的角色，而 L2 的核心任务已从单纯扩容转向提供差异化与定制化服务。基金会建议 L2 至少达到 Stage 1 安全标准，并鼓励其向 Stage 2 、同步可组合性及“原生 Rollup ”方向演进。同时，以太坊基金会承诺将继续扩容 L1 与 Blob （目前仅约 30% 满载），并重点解决多链生态带来的跨链体验碎片化问题。 wublock123.com/index.php?m=co…

“超过 250 万亿美元的资产齐聚一堂，共同探讨以太坊作为未来金融基础设施的作用。” 这一刻，华尔街齐聚，只为探索以太坊如何支撑“链上华尔街”。

Justin Drake joins Bankless. Q-Day is no longer a sci-fi thought experiment. We get into: - When quantum becomes a real crypto threat - Bitcoin’s hardest post-quantum tradeoffs - Ethereum’s roadmap to survive it - Why Justin thinks quantum is also an opportunity - What AI changes about the cryptography race 📅 Monday, March 23 w/ @drakefjustin

这近期以太坊最值得关注的事情之一。 现在，以太坊转账到CEX或L2，需要等13分钟来确认。 未来，只需要变成13秒，整整快了60倍。 如何实现？ 现在出了一个FCR（Fast Confirmation Rule），也就是快速确认规则，单槽即可确认。 具体怎么干的？ 以前，大家靠“数区块”，一直等足够的区块堆上去才敢信。 现在，大家“数人头”，看看有多少验证者（质押ETH的那些人），投票说：“我看到这个区块，确认。” 大家在13秒内，也就是一个slot时间，只要点头确认， 那么，就可以说，转账是可信的。 这是最终确认吗？ 不是。 那么，还靠谱吗？ 靠谱。 因为，攻击成本很高，超过200多亿美元，正常人不会做这样的事情，得不偿失。 如果出现网络卡或其它极端情况，它会自动“刹车”，也就是慢慢回到13分钟模式，不会让用户丢钱。 还有个优点，FCR方案，不需要全网大升级（无硬分叉）。 在以太坊客户端（如Prysm这些）加个开关就行，交易所和L2改代码也超简单，用现有“safe”标签查就OK。 什么时候可以上？ 目前预估上等1-3个月左右。 最快3月底可以开FCR。今年Q2，CEX、L2、跨链桥可以接上用起来。 受益的都有哪些人？ 往CEX的存钱体验大幅度提升，存钱10多秒就可以到账。 L2链也会收益，转账速度快，不卡，对于玩DeFi的体验也是大幅提升，费用也便宜。 跨链桥来说，也是如此，转账快，风险降低，资产流动更顺滑。 对于普通用户来说，这意味着，以太坊L1的转账，感觉像是Solana这些高性能链，同时，还有以太坊的最大安全。 这也意味着，以太坊链上，这会刺激稳定币+DeFi的活动，会增加以太坊链上的活动，会利于ETH捕获更大价值。

以太坊或实现12秒交易确认，Vitalik：不可回滚的硬性保证 Vitalik转发以太坊研究员Julian的文章称，一种新的快速确认机制可在一个Slot（12秒）后提供交易不可回滚的硬性保证。 该机制的安全基于两个前提：超级多数验证者诚实、网络延迟在3秒以内。 这一保证级别虽然低于经济上的最终性，但对许多应用场景而言已经非常强大。

反直觉的是，过去三年多时间，eth的通胀率远低于btc，更远低于sol。

人生中99%的事情都是鸡毛蒜皮，犯不上不开心 1.打翻牛奶，擦干净就好 2. 手机丢了，再买就好 3. 酒店不好，换一个住就好 4. 飞机延误，等一等就好 有困难，面对困难，解决困难 这说白了就是有收拾残局的能力

V神：PoS 比 PoW 更好！ Why？ • 攻击成本高，得先砸 800 亿美元买币质押 • 自动罚没机制，直接把黑客的币烧了 • 社区还可以软分叉，送黑客的钱归零

《Culper Research：我们为何坚定做空 ETH》（编译：深潮 TechFlow）做空机构 Culper Research 认为，Ethereum 在 2025 年 Fusaka 升级后出现代币经济模型恶化：区块空间扩张导致 Gas 费用下降约 90%，但真实需求并未同步增长。链上活跃度增长主要由地址毒化攻击和尘埃交易驱动，占新增钱包约 95%、交易量增长逾 50%。同时验证者收益下降、开发者增长落后于 Solana，叠加竞争与 L2 分流，ETH 基本面正在走弱，因此维持做空观点。阅读全文：wublock123.com/index.php?m=co…

Vitalik Buterin explains why proof-of-stake is more secure than proof-of-work “I think proof of stake is very secure because to attack the system, you need to have basically as much stake as the rest of the network. Right now, for example, we have 5 million ETH staking, which means you have to come up with 5 million ETH and then join the network.” At the time of this writing, more than 37 million ETH are being staked, with 3 million ETH waiting to join via the validator queue. At today’s prices, that’s more than $80 billion of ETH someone would have to acquire to attack the network and revert finalized blocks, which is more than the cost of attacking even the Bitcoin network by some estimates. The other defense mechanism that proof-of-stake has that proof-of-work doesn’t is slashing, which makes Ethereum antifragile. Vitalik explains: “Recovering from attacks is much easier in proof-of-stake than proof-of-work. For many kinds of attacks you do against [the Ethereum] network, we have this concept of automatic slashing. In order to revert a finalized block, you basically have to have a big portion of your validators sign two conflicting messages. This is something where once these messages are on the network, you can go and prove ‘these people did it.’ So we have this feature in the protocol where you basically take all these people who provably misbehaved and you burn their coins.” Vitalik also acknowledges the possibility of censoring attacks, where if 1/3rd of validators refuse to attest, the chain can’t finalize. But, as he explains, Ethereum has a contingency plan for this as well: “Everyone who got censored would create a minority chain, and the community would have to do a soft fork. The would have to say, ‘this chain is clearly attacking us and this one is not attacking us, so we’re going to join this chain.’ Then what happens is, on that new chain, the attackers also lose a lot of coins. The difference between proof-of-stake and proof-of-work is that in a proof-of-stake system, you can identify specific participants — and this isn’t a human going in and saying ‘I don’t like you’. It’s all automated.” One last benefit of proof-of-stake is that security scales with the value of the network. As Vitalik put it five years ago, it is really relative security, and not absolute security, that matters: “The security needs of a thing have to be proportional to the size of that thing, because as a thing gets bigger, its enemies become bigger and more well-motivated. If BTC were 100x as big as it is today, the value from destroying it would be 100x higher, and the kinds of actors that would want to care about destroying it would be much bigger and scarier. This is also why countries of all sizes have roughly similarly sized militaries as a percentage of GDP. Hence, cost of attack divided by market cap really is the correct statistic to measure, and in the long run issuance-free PoW really does look not that good." Source: @lexfridman (Jun 2021)

Etherealize CEO Vivek Raman on how to pitch ETH to Wall Street “The deeper people get into Ethereum, the more enamored they become by the technology . . . [But] I want to explain this as a Wall Street asset,” Vivek begins. “If we just take ETH as an asset, the issuance cap is 1.5%. Great — that’s better than fiat. It’s programmatic and you can look at the ETH software, which is open source and transparent. That’s the max it will ever be.” ETH thus should be viewed as a supply-capped asset like BTC, but with an economy layered on top of it: “If you think blockspace is going to fill up; if you think there will be more stablecoins issued and tokenization and L2s; then blockspace will get used, and that means ETH becomes a deflationary asset. An asset with a max issuance of 1.5% that can go to 0% and become deflationary if blockchain adoption picks up — and I don’t know anyone who doesn’t think blockchain adoption will pick up — it’s a pretty compelling asset.” Vivek continues: “When people think about which digital assets to hold — either as treasury assets, part of a portfolio, or when pitching to investors that want digital asset exposure — Bitcoin has crossed the rubicon as digital gold. That’s great, but ETH is digital oil and belongs as part of a portfolio too. That weighting has been almost 100% BTC and 0% ETH, but I think it’s going to start shifting. We’re already starting to see ETH ETFs pick up… as regulation becomes friendly for stablecoins and decentralized systems, that’s going to flow through ETH. The conversation is going to go from ‘Let’s just have BTC as a store of value’ to ‘Let’s have BTC and ETH as part of a portfolio’, and that’s going to cause a ridiculous repricing I think.” Digital oil is a great analogy: “It captures a lot of the geopolitical and strategic importance of [ETH]. But it’s much more than just oil — it’s a store of value with yield. So not only do you have this amazing monetary asset with a capped issuance, but you also get a staking yield, and that staking yield has a call option embedded where if there’s more activity, your staking yield is higher. You get indirect exposure to the growth of the digital economy.” Vivek sums it up as follows: “If you want digital gold, you buy BTC. If you want upside in blockchain adoption, you buy ETH. That’s what the narrative needs to go to. If people want exposure to stablecoins, you can buy Circle — but you can also buy ETH. If you want exposure to tokenization, you can buy ETH. The narrative is going to realign.” Source: @Bankless (Jun 2025)

现阶段，用费用方式来定义eth价值固然不合适，但紧跟黄金和btc之后做eth的价值存储定价也是不合适的。 eth真正的价值在于它为链上金融和链上AI提供安全服务，当链上跑着数万亿美元的稳定币+数亿的AI agent居民时候，不仅是想象力打开了，而且是真正的价值沉淀了。

EF, last year: Hey, we want to listen to you users to make Ethereum better. EF, now: Jk, we looked at the real world. We don't like building for it after all, we'll go back to building cypherpunk stuff only. This is the EF going back to its old ways, undoing the changes from last year. I have feared this would happen because Vitalik clearly wasn't in with his heart. But whatever they say about the "ecosystem" being able to take care of this, the fundamental problems remain: - there are very few voices in ACD caring about real world Ethereum usage - there is nobody doing Ethereum BD (everyone else who is doing this also has their own separate interests)

A truth bomb for you. ETH will never earn fees. Ok, never is a strong word - let me rephrase - ETH won't earn fees anytime soon or in sustained amounts necessary to justify a centa-billion dollar asset. The reason is written in the roadmap. Ethereum intends to massively increase blockspace supply in the coming years. If we get to Justin Drake's gigagas in 5 years, that's a 200x increase in blockspace supply. ETH only generates fees when demand exceeds supply - demand won't outstrip supply during this rapid expansion era, that means low fees. So if your reason for holding ETH is fee generation, sell now - send it to zero. Or...re-consider how to value ETH. Consider what the market is already telling you. What assets don't earn fees but are worth trillions? Gold. Silver. Oil. Bitcoin. Together worth $170 trillion in value. Commodity money and store of value assets aren't priced on their ability to generate fees. They're priced on consumptive usage, and store of value demand relative to their scarcity. ETH is scarce. Lower annual issuance than gold or bitcoin. ETH has store of value demand. A censorship resistant digital money, a cyberpunk money, native to AI and the internet, economic bandwidth for DeFi. You can try to value ETH as a fee generating DCF asset and continue to be confused or you can value it as the market already does. ETH is an emerging commodity money.

Blackrock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF added to the Farside ETF flow dashboard farside.co.uk/eth/

🔔以太坊基金会发布 EF Mandate 使命宣言，重申去中心化与用户自我主权愿景 火星财经消息，以太坊基金会发布一份 38 页的新使命宣言文件《EF Mandate》，其中阐述其发展理念、优先事项及在以太坊生态中的长期角色，指出以太坊的核心目标是推动“自我主权”（self-sovereignty），确保用户对自身身份、资产、行为及代理拥有最终控制权。文件强调，以太坊的发展必须始终坚持四项核心属性：抗审查、开源与自由、隐私以及安全（统称为 CROPS），并表示这些原则不应因效率或便利而被牺牲。同时，基金会将以太坊置于更广泛的开放技术生态中，称其为“无限花园”（Infinite Garden）的一部分，即由开发者、社区与机构共同构建的开放数字基础设施网络。以太坊基金会表示，其定位是项目的“守护者”而非所有者或统治者，职责在于维护网络的长期愿景与开放价值观。基金会同时强调，随着生态成熟，其影响力应逐步下降，更多职责将由更广泛的社区和开发者生态承担。 news.marsbit.co/flash/20260314…