Daniel Davis Deep Dive@DanielLDavis1
The United States in Iran are in a stressful continuous pause in the war. But the status quo cannot endure, and something will have to be done soon to change the calculus.
Iran is suffering from the blockade, but not too far out of the range of suffering they’ve had in the past, and they know how to suffer. It is reasonable to assume that with mitigation factors, and their proclivity to suffer, they can endure the blockade for many months before getting to a critical state.
The Americans on the other hand, we cannot endure many more WEEKS of the blockade, owing to significant and compounding financial cost because of the absence of 12 million barrels of oil per day on the global market.
And of course, that is further compounded by the absence of sufficient quantities of fertilizers, aluminum, and helium, necessary for economic activity across the Asian and European landscapes.
Trump will be tempted to try to solve the problem militarily. But as we have already conclusively, proven, there is no military path to compel submission by Iran. Trying again will only deepen our cost.
But the clock is ticking, and the pressure on Trump from around the world is building up, as well as from the domestic economy, which is about to suffer an oil shock at home, as the price of oil can no longer be manipulated to stay low. It will soon reflect the reality of the loss of 12 million barrels of oil a day.
With the aircraft carrier Gerald R Ford having already been deployed for close to a year, it is in desperate need of returning to port. Thus, the pressure militarily on Trump to do something quick or return all that combat power home adds to the pressure.
Probably the next three weeks will be crucial for determining how this situation goes. But the bottom line for the president is this:
Return to active combat operations, and we turn this strategic defeat into an unmitigated economic disaster. Just walk away and agreed to any terms that we can get from Tehran, and it remains in the area of merely strategic defeat.
There are no viable options that are positive for us. We baked that in when we started this foolish war last February.