breezy

saylor a beast

Sorry if this is a long read. So $OPEN acquired Audrion. This is classic Kaz playbook: acquire small, elite technical teams, give them massive real world distribution and data, and let them compound like madness. I have come to understand that mortgage underwriting, compliance, and pricing are notoriously hard and regulated. So this is exactly the kind of “very hard problem” a default to AI team can attack with machine learning to reduce costs, speed up approvals, lower risk, and offer better rates/terms than traditional lenders. This will probably result in higher conversion rates on sales, lower acquisition costs, better attach rates and improved lifetime value per transaction. We all know that under Kaz, $OPEN has shown rapid operational progress: FASTER. Faster home acquisition velocity, stronger cohorts, AI emphasis across the business, and a clear path toward breakeven. Acquiring Audrion right after the Doma deal shows consistent, focused capital allocation. It totally reduces reliance on third party lenders (who take a cut) and positions $OPEN to capture more economics while making the entire process faster/cheaper for customers. In a (hopefully) stabilising housing market, this platform approach can create durable competitive advantages and margin expansion that a pure iBuyer model struggles to achieve alone. We are no longer there. This is what the broader market don’t see. This reinforces the vision of $OPEN as an AI FIRST platform company rather than just a home flipper.

What a time to be alive. My wife got me a Calibrex to track my workouts. Unfortunately the telemetry is terrible and so is the app UX. Instead of returning it, Claude and I hacked the device, rewrote the tracking algorithm and built a new app. 100x better and now I’m ready to roll.

In its early days, @Opendoor had one of the most cracked engineering teams in the Bay Area. Many of them left to create some of the best experiences currently available on the internet. If you are one of them and want to come back, please DM me. We're back on mission.

Love this pick

This is your reminder that the Nasdaq has only had a 12 day winning streak 3 times in its entire history. There has never been a 13 day streak. Today is day 12.

Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI. AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will not be inflation.

People are sleeping on the $OPEN Doma acquisition + mortgage product. This is the Opendoor 2.0 full stack. Let's do some basic math. Here's how I understand the economics to work. 🏠 OPENDOOR 1.0: THE OLD MODEL One revenue stream. Buy homes, sell homes, profit on the spread. Everything else goes to third parties. 🏠 OPENDOOR 1.0: SINGLE HOME TRANSACTION Buyer X finds an Opendoor home for $400,000. → Opendoor bought it for $370,000 → Spent $5,000 on repairs → Sells for $400,000 → Pays ~$5,000 in selling costs → $400,000 - $370,000 - $5,000 - $5,000 = $20,000 profit But during that same transaction: → Buyer X pays ~$4,800 in mortgage fees → goes to Wells Fargo or whoever → Buyer X pays ~$1,800 for title and escrow → goes to First American or whoever → ~$6,600 leaving the building on every home sale → Opendoor captures none of it Opendoor 1.0 per home: $20,000 🏠 OPENDOOR 2.0: THE NEW MODEL Kaz has been quietly building new revenue layers on top of every transaction: Layer 1 → Doma (title + escrow) Every home sale requires title and escrow. Legally required. Not optional. → Title = verifying the seller legally owns the home → Escrow = neutral party that holds all money and distributes it at closing Opendoor acquired Doma and rebuilt this with AI. What took humans weeks now takes minutes. Layer 2 → Opendoor Mortgage Traditionally the buyer borrows from a third-party lender who charges rate markups, lender fees, and loan officer commissions. Opendoor's version: AI handles the process. No loan officer. No lender fees. Buyer gets a lower rate. Opendoor originates the loan and can sell it to Fannie Mae or other investors at a slight premium. That premium is the gain-on-sale spread → that's the profit. 🏠 OPENDOOR 2.0: SINGLE HOME TRANSACTION Same home. Same buyer. Different economics. → Buyer X finds an Opendoor home for $400,000 → Opendoor bought it for $370,000 → Spent $5,000 on repairs → Sells for $400,000 → Pays ~$5,000 in selling costs → $400,000 - $370,000 - $5,000 - $5,000 = $20,000 home sale profit (same as 1.0) But now the rest stays in-house: Mortgage: → Buyer puts down $50,000, borrows $350,000 from Opendoor → Lower rate. No lender fees. AI handles the paperwork → Opendoor can sell that $350,000 loan to Fannie Mae at a slight premium → Say Fannie Mae pays ~101% of face value → $350,000 × 1.01 = $353,500 → $353,500 - $350,000 = $3,500 gain-on-sale profit Doma: → Closing handled by Doma. Title search by AI. Escrow in-house → Buyer pays ~$1,800 for title + escrow (same fee as before) → But now it goes to Opendoor's Doma subsidiary → Doma processes at lower cost with AI → I estimate ~$1,000 in processing costs (conservative) → $1,800 - $1,000 = ~$800 profit per transaction Opendoor 2.0 per home: → Home sale: $20,000 → + Mortgage gain-on-sale: $3,500 → + Doma title/escrow: $800 → = $24,300 Opendoor 1.0: $20,000 per home Opendoor 2.0: $24,300 per home 21% more profit. Same home. Same buyer. From software. 🏠 OPENDOOR 2.0: AT SCALE At current pace (~600 homes/week = 7,800/quarter): Doma (every transaction, legally required): → 7,800 × $800 = +$6.2M profit per quarter Mortgage (estimating 30% adoption): → 7,800 × 30% = 2,340 mortgages → 2,340 × $3,500 = +$8.2M profit per quarter Full stack: → $6.2M + $8.2M = +$14.4M per quarter → 7% contribution margin becomes ~7.5% → At only 30% mortgage adoption. As it grows to 40%, 50%, 60%+, margin compounds → Expands considerably as acquisitions/market share increases This is why I say people are sleeping on Doma + mortgage. Do you see the power of this model now? Every layer Kaz adds captures revenue that used to leave the building. This is Opendoor 2.0. And the market hasn't caught up yet. The stock is ~$4.80. nfa, long $OPEN 🏠

I’ve spent a decade telling people to do what I do: "Buy and Hold." Now I've decided to list my entire real estate portfolio for sale and walk away. It started slow. The bills, the maintenance, the tax increases... but the final straw was when I tried to develop an ADU to do exactly what the city of LA claims it wants investors like me to do: Create more housing. You'd think they'd make it easier, but after two delayed inspections, a sewer pipe replacement that needed 75 days advance notice, and a city-owned tree that became my responsibility, I'd had enough. The identity of being a real-estate guy is very hard to walk away from, trust me. For a long time, I stayed just because real estate was my "thing." It’s how I started. It’s what I’m known for. It led to every good thing in my life. But that blinded me to the fact that just because something served me in the past, it doesn't mean things haven't changed in the present. The reality of 2026 finally stripped the emotion away. My LA rentals are netting about 4-5% after the constant background noise of taxes, insurance spikes, and repairs. Meanwhile, a risk-free Treasury pays 5%. The trade-off just doesn't make sense any more. I’m reallocating to a liquid portfolio that actually lets me focus on the work I love. I published a deep dive on my Substack about the ADU nightmare that broke my patience, the exact numbers behind the exit, and where I’m moving the money next to buy back my sanity. I'll drop the link here in a bit.

Since 1928, this is the first time the S&P has made new all-time highs in 11 days or fewer after falling 5-10%.

America💪💪

For too long, NJ TRANSIT riders have been promised change. Today, we start delivering the results they deserve – with the introduction of 40 new railcars, 250 new buses, and 30 new accessible vehicles for NJ Transit. This is a first step toward fully replacing NJ TRANSIT’s entire fleet for the first time in history.

I love people who love their animals this much.

😂

Wow

My relationship with God is my priority because when everything else fails me, He won't.

cant wait til im so up in life .. i manifest this shit everyday

Banks treat you nicely when you are rich. Companies treat you nicely when you are skilled. Women treat you nicely when you are handsome and rich. Men are loved conditionally. Nobody gives you sympathy if you're weak, poor, and broke.

In a world full of boys chasing women, drugs, and sex. Be the man who is busy fixing his finances, body, mind, and a strong relationship with God. Trust me, You'll go far in life.

$OPEN just broke below the potential double bottom. Week just started and war headlines are back in play. If we close below, next logical move is a push toward $3.16 support. But this could also be a fake breakdown (bear trap) and reclaim back above. Still too early to call, let’s see how price reacts 👀 #OpenArmy #Opendoor #RisingDynasty