AlienTek

$btc shorts - The Iran Peace Treaty Deal, how to deal with (ignore) news and the forward pricing nature of markets. My bold claim: we will see new lows once more and the deal should be framed in bearish light, not bullish That's a mouthful of a title. But I'm getting a lot of comments re-occurring which are of the form: "Astro, why build shorts on this pump, Trump is negotiating deals for reopening Hormuz, once the deal is closed, we will go higher". Before I get deeper, I can always be wrong on the trade and we can just send and my attempt to bust the comment above could be a complete failure. But the reality is different. Ever had the feeling of closing a long because "bad news is looming?" "war threats are coming". Or ever had the feeling of closing a short because "war is about to end?". Then accepting the reality I am about to share will likely help you erase that fear for good. The market constantly prices in the current sentiment and current collective mind of the news out there. Right now, that collective mind is lots of hope for good news while the good news hasn't arrived yet. Markets are forward pricing in nature, not backwards pricing. The current news available and known to everyone does not move price, it already has. That's why we watch the charts, and not the news. That's why we don't try to explain every move using news either since not all news is equally important. The market never cared what Jerome Powell said, only the anticipation and sentiment around it does. If this trade closes into a W and we see new lows, let that be a lesson, to not care about the news, when entering a trade, when holding a trade, when exiting a trade. Because if the deal doesn't go through and $btc makes new lows, everyone will blame it on the deal. But guess what, if the deal goes through and $btc still makes new lows, people will call the asset "bad" or "lagging" or "why is spx moving up and not btc, sell your bitcoin now, the asset is dead". Case and point, there will always be a narrative to why price did x, y or z. People will always look for reasons. Show me the charts and I'll tell you the narrative. Remember my bold claim. Once and if we made new lows and my (bold) plan to build shorts into it plays out, I will go back to this tweet, and you will become wiser, I promise. If not and the idea is wrong, at least, I tried. But I promise you that the business as usual is new lows once more. And, once $btc made new lows, we will not blame it on the deal (if it goes wrong), we will not blame it on $btc being a lagging asset compared to $spx at the moment (if the deal goes right). And then there is the third scenario, where nothing happens, or only a smaller pump. Then the bulls come out loudly, tell me I was wrong, and then we see new lows regardless. So, it's all a façade, hence we will simply ignore the news, news is just a subset of the narrative, which always comes after the move, not before. Markets are forward pricing.

Why I called the bottom on Feb 6th when most expected sub 50k or a bottom later down the year? Here's another clue: When $BTC approaches its production cost, it bottomed, historically. That's not voodoo, or "technical analysis", that is just basic economics.