
First Crown Research🇺🇸
5.9K posts

First Crown Research🇺🇸
@First_Crown
nano cap, distressed, hong kong, arb unwinds



I have many biases based on my experiences. So I fully admit that I am structurally bearish on credit priced at par. That view comes from having a front row seat of the GFC. In 2008, liquidity didn’t “fade.” It vanished. Spreads didn’t drift. They gapped. When you’ve seen how close the system came to breaking, you stop treating par as safety. You start treating it as volatility in hiding. Post-GFC: • Banks pulled back • Regulators discouraged >6x EBITDA lending (2013 guidance) • PE rebounded Leverage didn’t go away. It just moved off bank balance sheets. Risk migrated. Capital followed. Discipline didn’t always keep up. In PE, Fund II requires exits. In private credit, “no defaults” was often enough. Loans marked at par. Spreads tight. AUM compounding. Then came evergreen funds. Illiquid loans. Quarterly NAV. Periodic liquidity. We told ourselves this was product innovation. In reality, it’s duration mismatch wrapped in yield. Private wealth flows are pro-cyclical. They love income when volatility is low. They demand liquidity when volatility spikes. And when spreads widen, investors don’t debate underwriting nuance. They ask: “Should I stay or should I go?” If they go: • Gates get tested • Marks get tested • Conviction gets tested Credit is correlated in stress. You don’t lauded for being “slightly better” when the whole asset class reprices. Add in: • Sponsor relationships that are serial • Competitive underwriting drift • Internal marks • Public GPs optimizing fee growth In good times, these are features. In bad times, they’re pressure points. To be clear: I don’t think private credit is bad. The best managers — real underwriters, real restructurers, firms with true trading DNA — will likely gain share in the cleanup. Dislocations create opportunity. But today’s scale + liquidity promises + behavioral flows have never been stress-tested together. Private credit hasn’t faced a true systemic liquidity shock at this size. And when the cycle turns: “If I go there will be trouble… And if I stay it will be double.”



On my honeymoon in Hawaii right now so probably shouldnt be looking at this but wow didnt expect $4.20 at all $NBY

*ORACLE SHARES EXTEND DROP TO 10% ON HIGHER CAPEX VIEW


日本首相高市早苗今天在眾議院預算委員會上的答辯,標誌著日本安全政策的一個歷史性轉折。她明確指出,若台灣遭受武力攻擊,並出現以戰艦進行海上封鎖等行動,日本政府可能將此視為「存亡危機事態」,自衛隊可以據此行使集體自衛權。她強調,台灣局勢已進入極為嚴峻的階段,政府必須以最壞的情況為前提做好準備。這番話的意義在於,日本首度由現任首相正式承認,若台海爆發戰爭,自衛隊可能介入。 根據日本現行安全法制,只要與日本密切相關的國家遭到攻擊,而此舉被認定為威脅日本存亡,則即使日本本身未被攻擊,也可行使集體自衛權。換言之,若中國對台發動軍事行動,日本政府可能認定這是「日本的事」,進而採取實際行動。這樣的表態,延續了安倍晉三前首相在卸任之後發表的「台灣有事就是日本有事」的理念,而且進一步賦予了政策實質。 長期以來,日本被稱為「單肺國家」——由於和平憲法的束縛,只能依靠經濟和外交手段維持國際地位,無法以軍事力量支撐國策。然而,如今的日本正逐漸擺脫這種被動狀態。高市的發言,不只是安全政策上的宣示,更象徵日本國家意識的復甦。二戰敗戰八十年後,日本正準備重新以「正常國家」的姿態,回到國際政治舞台的中央。 對台灣而言,這是利多。若中國考慮動武,不僅要顧忌美國的反應,也必須防範日本的介入。這將大幅提高北京的攻台成本,使其武力冒險的可能性下降。 高市早苗的態度象徵著一個新的日本正在形成。面對台海的風雲詭譎,她以務實的危機意識推動防衛政策的轉變。日本正在對自身角色重新定位——從被動的和平主義者,轉向積極守護自由與安全的行動者。












