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@shaedapk @OptaAnalyst @Tombrownlee Pretty much every time Opta model puts any prediction out you’ll see that difference

@OptaAnalyst @Tombrownlee have you seen this level of divergence before? opta 73% bfex 40%

How the Opta supercomputer sees the title race after Manchester City's win over Arsenal on Sunday🫣

Just stuck an offer in to renovate this place, cheers Haaland

No bet on the 13th, just some small stuff on the 14th. Slow rebuild continues, got some new ideas to work on in the next few days.

@Tombrownlee Hey Tom. Is an updated review of betting the player stats on the exchange/with bookmakers something that you would consider (instead of comparing to total x of each player stat over a large sample)?

This dashboard shows behind the scenes work we do at bookiebashing every single day that most people never see. We constantly check how accurate the market is in pricing player stats. Across the last 52,961 assists the pattern is very clear: the market has been overestimating favourites and underestimating longshots. The markets are far from efficient. You would make money blindly betting on longshots and would lose money blindly betting on favs. We adjust our own model to correct for this bias and keep our calibration as close to 100% as possible, lowering our lines on favourites and raising them on the outsiders. This is how we create a consistent edge against both exchanges and the sportsbooks.

Need to be more steady with golf instead of going crazy on one tournament a year. Regardless, a decent result and gives this month a bit of momentum. Looking pretty poor at the moment in terms of EV and staked so will need to step it up. Not helped by being abroad again next week

Betting masters this year has made me realise that: A) I need to betting more golf in general B) I need to stop going mental on the masters Always massively overstaked it because I wanted the winner, but yesterday was just a normal day and I didn't get much enjoyment from it

Masters sunday (and other sports). Bit of a learning experience, actually ended up being a decent result on the golf thanks to Rory winning. Would've been horrendous had he not. Lost on other sports as is tradition, but a decent winning day.

Young will go down in history as one of the most fortunate golfers to ever have existed.

To be honest probably big enough to be impacting how the year is going too.

50% win probability on the masters. Will be a very expensive coin flip to decide what direction this month is going 12 days in 🤞

Still pretty relentless at the moment. Mood not improved by my golfers deciding to regress massively to the mean. Will hope for some places tomorrow and pray for the winner to maybe keep the month going. Same message (again), keep going...

@Tombrownlee Sure, but we need those people. Don’t think there’s any doubt that what he’s doing is lower EV, but by engaging you’re not going to gain anything and just potentially prevent other users from following him and also laying.

@FullKelly1 It was drawn in by the confidence with which he told me I was an addict because I bet one side and that he knew the only way to profit from betting. As if people weren’t laying boosts in 2008.

Another loser, these sub-EVS bets are killing me. Have noticeably had less volume over the last 10 days, a combo of me focusing on the masters and also just putting in less effort. Planning to turn it around and get back to normal.

Few first round golf stuff that I misjudged. Would assume they were negative EV by the off, but I don't bother updating fair odds after placement. Decent first round aside from that, so hopefully I can claw a lot of it back on Sunday. Someone arrest Scheffler again

Playing catch up on these posts. Was mostly Masters stuff this week so minimal volume elsewhere. Where I did manage to get bets on, they lost.

Nice. Not too complicated, I assume we were all on the same bet. Started getting bets down on the masters so this'll make a nice dent in recovering when Scheffler inevitably wins.

Come on then