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Overall plan:
Bullish on BTC above all else. Far and away the largest part of my portfolio. Only thing safe enough to put a majority of your net worth in and forget about.
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Patience Exerciser
1.1K posts
Patience Exerciser
@HugeriskCapital
We exercise some patience
Earth Inscrit le Aralık 2024
73 Abonnements56 Abonnés
yes
game theorist red pushers are tending to deem the middle 3 rows as impossible, and entirely discount the global effect of their own actions
doing both makes the problem very easy and removes their moral culpability entirely
then they're like "why is this question so hard for everyone"
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@HugeriskCapital @stevehou It can be reduced to a game theory problem, they are just using the wrong model
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Strictly dominated option won the poll. Red strictly dominates blue bc if fewer than 50% chose blue, those that chose red survive anyway but those that chose blue would die.
If you presumed voters are “rational” as in they thought this through, you’d conclude altruism. In reality, this is “bounded rationality” as most people likely didn’t think through the implications and chose the feel good option without knowing they had taken on hypothetical lethal risks.
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@Oeufseblancse @ThingBeak @ChrisPacia well, presumably they did it because their friends did it and they're trying to save their friends
bravery is just stupidity plus the ability to save others
so if you're arguing against bravery, that's an interesting perspective
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@HugeriskCapital @ThingBeak @ChrisPacia no, and you should berate them for making such a stupid decision
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Imagine the button experiement was slightly different.
There is no red button. Only a blue button sitting somewhere where everyone can see it.
There's a sign on it that reads:
"Pushing this button will kill you unless 50% + 1 of the population also push this button".
Should you push the button?
If you say no here, but yes to the original, what makes you think this is fundamentally different?
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even if you had toddlers and they coin flip their button press, you should still pick red
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I’m officially convinced. It was a hoax. The Trump Administration recruited a leftist Kamala Harris voting Trump hater to participate in a staged assassination that would include the shooter getting shot at and then locked in federal prison for the rest of his life. The Kamala Harris voter agreed to this plan, that works against his political and personal interests, because he’s just like a really generous guy. Meanwhile the Trump Administration, despite dastardly planning multiple assassination hoaxes, decided to keep their patsy alive and a permanent liability to them, rather than just killing him like they could have easily done. They did this because they also are really strangely generous in a very odd and specific way. So in summary we have a plot where all parties involved are working against their own interests with no real discernible benefit to any of them. There is no evidence of this plan and it doesn’t even make any intuitive sense and the motives for everyone are unclear if not insane, but still I believe it because I’m a very smart person.
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@publicinte what do you think, over/under 1 in 250 million that its 50/50 when it gets to you?
(reason for this number coming after your response)
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your vote, like an election, is very unlikely to determine anything
blue wins kid blue - they’re Alive
blue wins kid red - they’re alive
Red wins kid blue - theyre dead
Red wins kid red - they’re alive
you need to ensure that you are alive to not leave your child orphaned
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The red blue button divide is becoming clearer and clearer, and also stupider and stupider.
The blue pushers are now reduced to claiming that “having one’s decisions depend on which logically equivalent but emotionally different phrasing is used is a good thing, actually”.
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@waitbutwhy Press red you are sure to live
Everybody can press red and live
>the only reason to press blue is because you assume it will help save some less intelligent people?
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Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@JohnBrown______ @XYZZY83382151 @joe_shipman Should be obvious that "thin" by definition in this chart means "what is able to be changed with and only with a campaign"
could be 10 (if we're talking about a small personal campaign)
could be thousands (if you have that kind of influence)
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@jon_vs_moloch @DuskQuill_Team wow thank god
I just wasted so much time when DuskQuill had it all along
discussion's over everyone, pack it up
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When you originally read the question, did you consider children?
It doesn’t actually matter whether the children have to vote: as worded, some people will think they do, and will try to save them; and so should be saved, themselves, if possible.
I bet on people like myself.
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@johnennis @WR4NYGov You are potentially voting to kill people, because 50/50 before it gets to you is a possible scenario
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You aren’t voting to kill people since you don’t know how the votes will turn out
First off, maybe everyone else was smart enough to vote red and you’re just voting to kill yourself if you voted blue
Secondly, maybe blue will win anyway and no one will die
A red vote simply means you are okay with people dying as a function of their own choices as long as you get to live
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I’m a bit shocked at the number of people who:
Voted to kill people.
Brag that they voted to kill people.
And mock those of us who voted not to kill people.
I studied game theory. It doesn’t say you have to vote to kill people.
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan
The majority of people pressing blue is the epitome of virtue signaling. 100% of people should just press red and guarantee survival. There’s absolutely zero reason for anyone to press blue, but these sheep think it’s the virtuous choice so they vote for it anyway
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@XYZZY83382151 @joe_shipman This question is very easy when you strip it of all of its complexity, eh?
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@joe_shipman "it is the trolley problem but with no people on the tracks. Press blue to put yourself on the tracks."
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@radicallymid @Jacke_Bee @Brian_Rugg @WhickTv Original question didn't say whether that was permissable
but you can still opt not to campaign, so it doesn't change things too much
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@HugeriskCapital @Jacke_Bee @Brian_Rugg @WhickTv True...but if you can affect the outcome by campaigning it is a different problem entirely.
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I'm a blue button pusher.
Reasons in no necessary order:
1) Many people I love and care for will press blue. Me pressing blue has a chance of saving them, me pressing red does not
2) I would feel bad if I contributed, in however small a way, to the direct death of a non-zero number of people
3) I believe most people will, when it comes down to it, push blue. Pushing blue has the greatest chance of *everyone* surviving.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Actually I take it back, you did really change it, its not private and simultaneous any more, so that scenario allows you to provide a true signal, makes the "push red campaign blue" impossible to choose, prevents disabled people/infants/toddlers to opt out rather than choose randomly, becomes more emotional as more people press the button and if it starts to gain traction it would reach majority much more easily as anyone who had friends/family press would feel like they should press it themselves.
So yes, as soon as a few people I know pressed it, I'd press it and campaign for others to press it, which would easily happen
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@MichaelHar2317 @ChrisPacia actually I realized I was wrong here after. its much, much easier to press because at some point, your friends will press it, and it will become apparent that its got enough momentum to cross the threshold
x.com/HugeriskCapita…
Patience Exerciser@HugeriskCapital
Actually I take it back, you did really change it, its not private and simultaneous any more, so that scenario allows you to provide a true signal, makes the "push red campaign blue" impossible to choose, prevents disabled people/infants/toddlers to opt out rather than choose randomly, becomes more emotional as more people press the button and if it starts to gain traction it would reach majority much more easily as anyone who had friends/family press would feel like they should press it themselves. So yes, as soon as a few people I know pressed it, I'd press it and campaign for others to press it, which would easily happen
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@HugeriskCapital @ChrisPacia Seems much easier to not press right? In previous ppl were being forced to pressed. Which I understand your angle, but diaagree that this is same situation
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@radicallymid @Jacke_Bee @Brian_Rugg @WhickTv right but if you know you can affect the outcome by campaigning, you obviously campaign blue (regardless of your vote)
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@Jacke_Bee @Brian_Rugg @WhickTv Of course the votes around that threshold are more important to the outcome…but if you miss your mark by even one vote then you have chosen poorly not only for yourself but for others as well
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way way easier to choose bouba
a lot of people are not going to know what they're doing, so the whole "people who press kiki are not responsible for the actions of bouba pressers" morality escape argument wouldn't hold; when deciding, you'd be in the smaller set of kiki/bouba discriminators, and there's more of an implied moral duty this way
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You have two buttons in front of you, Bouba and Kiki. They are NOT labeled, and NOT colored.
The problem is the same, just substitute red with Kiki and blue with Bouba. Will you chose the same one as before?
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@HugeriskCapital @ThingBeak @ChrisPacia lol as if you’ll change the outcome of the button at that point. Main character syndrome
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