LongYield

what happens if the Strait of Hormuz? Oil at $200. Global recession probability above 75%. Inflation surging. Currencies breaking. All from a single chokepoint 21 miles wide. My deep dive on what happens if the Strait of Hormuz closes: — Who wins — Who collapses — What investors must do New on LongYield ↓ substacktools.com/sharex/y29zmuKj

$LLY Lilly is guiding to $80B+ revenue. $NVO Novo is warning of “unprecedented” pricing pressure. Same market. Very different realities. The GLP-1 boom isn’t ending — it’s evolving into a fight over pricing, access, and profit pools. New LongYield deep dive ↓ substacktools.com/sharex/-ixAQSuw

Europe’s earnings season was better than feared. But not better enough to call it a real recovery. Q4 2025 delivered a surface-level beat, yet revenues still fell, beat rates stayed weak, and strength was concentrated in a narrow group: banks, defense, and cloud software. The real question now: can Europe grow into current valuations, or is this just margin management buying time? New on LongYield. substacktools.com/sharex/xUA5sO6b

Lucid makes one of the best EVs on the market. That’s not the question. The question is: do they survive long enough to matter? $LCID burned $3.8B in 2025 with ~14–18 months of runway. Gravity, Saudi backing, and the funding wall ahead. Full deep dive ↓ substacktools.com/sharex/2mav4HLE

Social Security faces a ~20% cut within a decade. Europe’s dependency ratio is heading toward 55%. But the real story isn’t collapse. It’s compression. Retirement is becoming shorter, riskier, and more unequal. Full analysis ↓ substacktools.com/sharex/Oa7HxVGf

The More You Know

CONFIRMED: Rebellion In Iran Was AstroTurfed By Israel's Mossad, According To The New York Times! "Intelligence Operations Intended to Encourage Regime Change, They Thought, Could Lead To A Mass Uprising" »WATCH THE LIVE ALEX JONES SHOW NOW: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Tencent just delivered its strongest year in years — and the market is still pricing it like nothing changed. +14% revenue +18% profit AI accelerating ads, gaming, and cloud Massive buybacks + net cash balance sheet Yet it trades at a discount to its own history. Is Tencent quietly becoming an AI-powered compounder… or is the discount still justified? Full deep dive ↓ substacktools.com/sharex/ea_ewLw2

Enemy: The Germans' War, pt. 2 - The Work of the Men As the starving, exhausted people of Germany process their defeat in the Great War, they face a new enemy more terrible than any they faced in the trenches. (Link below)

#RememberGaza We will never stop speaking for those innocent lives who were taken at the hands of the Israeli regime. God would never bless this. Ever.

My full interview with CNN on why I’m running for Governor

Today I watched the Israeli army bomb Khiam, Lebanon, with white phosphorus. This is a banned substance, therefore a war crimes. Americans, your tax dollars are paying for chemical warfare.

Planet Labs ($PL) just crossed an inflection point. This is no longer about satellites. It’s about owning the real-time data layer of Earth. But three risks remain: Commercial weakness Margin compression Defense concentration Planet Labs ( $PL ) just crossed an inflection point.t. substacktools.com/sharex/XTb0p6qR

Tensions rise in Taybeh—the last fully Christian town in the region—as settlers have reportedly taken control of a cement factory and quarry, with witnesses saying an Israeli flag was raised. Auxiliary Bishop Shomali of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem discusses the situation.

CNN asked me why I call @ByronDonalds a “slave.” Here’s why…

Insurance is no longer a line item in housing — it’s becoming the pricing mechanism. Premiums are up ~40% since 2019. In Florida: ~$8,300/year. In Louisiana: approaching $14,000. In some markets, insurance costs more than the mortgage. This isn’t a climate story. It’s a repricing. New LongYield deep dive ↓ substacktools.com/sharex/xAxyvHyH