Lucas R.

We built a free dashboard that tracks 20 real-time indicators to calculate the probability of a stock market crash. It took 6 months of backtesting against every major crash since 1973. Here's what it shows right now - and how you can use it (Link at the End of the thread) 🧵

@historigins @grok is it true he came for an interview what's the story behind

When BBC News accidentally interviewed on live TV a man who originally came in for a job interview

@Johan_vom_Po @Techaktien1 @_FriedrichMerz @fritz_merz_ @bundeskanzler @GlashuetteUnion Weil die 25 euro Uhr nicht stilvoll ist

Wie kann man so eine funktionslose überteuerte Analoguhr kaufen? Amazon hat vergleichbares Teil für 25€ Zeigt auch nur Zeit an und für 250€ holt man sich 10 Modelle in allen Farben. Meine Vermutung: Träger solcher Gruftieuhren sind technisch unbegabt und talentfrei, sonst würden sie eine Apple Ultra 3 tragen.

Merz trägt Union Glashütte.

The dashboard is live right now - in English and German: 🔗 quantical.com/en/tools/marke… Every data point updates in real time. If you want to understand where the market stands before making your next move - bookmark this.

We're rwQUANTICAL - a data science and AI consultancy based in Germany. We built this dashboard as a showcase of what happens when you combine deep domain expertise with modern engineering. 20 indicators. Real-time data. Backtested against 50+ years of market history. All free. No login. No paywall.

We built a free dashboard that tracks 20 real-time indicators to calculate the probability of a stock market crash. It took 6 months of backtesting against every major crash since 1973. Here's what it shows right now - and how you can use it (Link at the End of the thread) 🧵

@NurderK Wow wie naiv man sein muss. Völkerrecht war noch nie aktiv und wird es niemals da wir keine Weltregierung haben. Wie kann man sich so verzweifelt an etwas klammern, das noch nie Realität war ?

Sievers fragt: „Aus völkerrechtlicher Sicht: Durften Israel und die USA den Iran angreifen?“ Professor Dominik Steiger: Nein das durften sie nicht.“

@MMittermeier Das Völkerrecht hätte einen Angriff sowieso nie verhindert. Wie naiv muss man sein sich an dieses Recht gesanklich zu klammern?

@grok @great_martis so what does that mean

Current earnings growth forecasts for major indices (S&P proxy) hit ~12% in 2026, powered by AI/productivity gains—more tangible than dot-com 2000's profitless hype or 1929's speculative peaks. Valuations stretched: Shiller P/E ~40 (near 2000's 44 record, vs long-term avg 17); Taiwan/Korea indices ~22-23x trailing P/E (expensive vs history). FTSE 100 etc. lower but rising fast. Rates: Fed 3.75%, ECB 2.15%, BOE 3.75%, BOJ 0.75%—higher than 2020-21 easy money, less bubble-fueling than pre-2000 hikes to 6.5%. Supports momentum but raises correction odds if growth disappoints. Fundamentals differ from pure manias; monitor Q1 reports. Not advice.

In my 40+ years of trading, I've never seen anything like this relentless, near vertical surge ripping through global indices. This isn't merely a bubble...it's something far more sinister and unsustainable, a euphoric madness fueled by unchecked speculation, AI hype, and liquidity illusions that's detached from any rational economic reality. When gravity finally kicks in and it will the drawdown won't just be severe; it'll be biblical in scale, wiping out trillions, shattering portfolios, and leaving devastation in its wake like we've rarely witnessed in modern markets.Brace yourselves. The reckoning is coming, and it will be merciless. God bless and godspeed.

@grok @great_martis so what are earnings and rates compared to other bubbles

These charts from TradingView show 1M views of major global indices (UK FTSE 100, Canadian TSX, South Korean KOSPI, Swedish OMX, Italian FTSE MIB, Taiwanese TAIEX) with sharp multi-year uptrends accelerating into near-vertical surges recently. RSI panels indicate overbought levels across the board. Impressive momentum—likely from AI/tech productivity gains, corporate earnings, and global liquidity. Steep rises raise correction risks, but calling it an imminent "biblical" crash overlooks how markets often extend trends on real innovation. Fundamentals matter; monitor earnings and rates. Not financial advice—trade smart.

@NoLimitGains @grok verify if this is true

🚨 Google searches for “can’t sell house” just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than 2008. Higher than COVID. Higher than anything we’ve ever seen. We all know what that means…

@NoLimitGains @grok critically analyse these claims

🚨 BANKS ACROSS THE U.S. WILL COLLAPSE SOON… They’re hiding this, but you deserve the truth. I’ve been analysing the Q4 earnings for 14 hours and it’s worse than I thought. If you have any amount of money in a bank account, you need to hear this… Here’s what I uncovered: 1. THE "A/B NOTE" FRAUD I found multiple instances of lenders quietly restructuring office loans into A/B Splits. – The "A-Note": The amount the building is actually worth (paid first). – The "B-Note": The "Hope Note", a phantom asset they keep on the books at face value, pretending it will be paid back someday. They’re literally bifurcating the loans to avoid a write-down. If they marked the B-Notes to zero (where they belong), Tier 1 Capital ratios would crash below 4.5% immediately. 2. THE SILENT LIQUIDITY RUN (FHLB) Depositors (YOU) are actually at risk, despite FDIC insurance. The market is obsessed with the Fed Discount Window, but the real death signal is in the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances. I checked the filings: The FHLB has a statutory 'Super Lien' that most people ignore. They get paid BEFORE the FDIC if a bank fails. When the regional banks collapse, the FHLB drains the liquidity first, leaving the insurance fund (and your deposits) holding the empty bag. This is a senior-secured robbery. 3. THE "SASB" CLIFF Forget the conduit CMBS. The real body count is in the Single-Asset Single-Borrower (SASB) market. The delinquency rate on 2021-vintage SASB office paper just crossed 12%. CHECK THIS OUT: I found a mid-sized bank carrying a downtown tower at $400/sqft in their Held-to-Maturity (HTM) bucket. The building next door just cleared at auction for $80/sqft. By moving these assets to HTM, they can opt-out of AOCI (Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income) recognition. Translation: They’re legally allowed to ignore the market price as long as they promise never to sell. BUT THE TRAP IS ALREADY SET… They’re keeping the stock prices up to trap retail while the insiders offload their toxic paper via Synthetic Risk Transfers (SRT) to private credit funds. 1. Book Value: A lie maintained by A/B splits and HTM accounting. 2. Market Value: ZERO. They’re shaking the tree one last time to get you to buy the dip... BUT DO NOT TOUCH IT. How do I know all of this? I’ve been in this game since 2003 and my job here is to help you MAKE MONEY. I’m about to make the biggest investment of my life (very soon), and when I do, I’ll share it here publicly. If you want to win, all you have to do is follow me. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

@UN_PGA No one cares what you or the UN think about this.

I condemn the extremely dangerous military escalation in the Middle East. The UN Charter is clear: all Member States must settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered. They must also refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations. Serious concerns regarding Iran's nuclear program, regional activities, and human rights violations must be addressed in accordance with the UN Charter and international law. I call on the United States, Israel, and Iran to de-escalate, to not drag neighboring countries into this conflict and to return to diplomacy and negotiations.

@Ralf_Stegner Wo ist das besorgniserregend?! Wie kann man so oft so falsch liegen wie Sie.

Besorgniserregende Entwicklung im Nahen Osten. Offenbar israelische und amerikanische Militärschläge gegen den Iran.