
BlackMinorcaPullets
197.4K posts





If bartenders can go to jail for over-serving alcohol to someone who then kills another person, judges should go to jail for releasing criminals who do the same.



The Government of Spain demands the opening of Hormuz and the preservation of all the energy sites of the Middle East. We stand at a global tipping point. Further escalation could trigger a long-term energy crisis for all humanity. The world should not pay the consequences of this war.




Primorsk, Russia’s largest western oil exporting hub, turns out won’t be benefiting much from Donald Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, on the grounds that it was blown to bits this morning by Ukraine.


A drone attack has been reported on the oil port of Primorsk in Russia’s Leningrad region. A fuel storage tank was damaged. Primorsk is Russia’s largest oil port on the Baltic Sea and a key export hub. A significant share of the country’s oil shipments to foreign markets passes through it.



JUST IN: Europe told Trump that Iran is not their war. Then the gas bill arrived. Germany’s defence minister said it is not their war. France denied airspace. Spain refused base access. The UK said it would not be drawn into a wider conflict. NATO declined to classify the operation as a mission. Every major European power looked at the Strait of Hormuz and decided the 21-mile waterway that carries one fifth of global LNG supply was someone else’s problem. European TTF gas prices surged 50 to 85 percent after Qatar’s Ras Laffan was struck. Spot LNG prices jumped 40 to 60 percent. The EU must inject roughly 60 billion cubic metres into storage by December to hit its 90 percent refill target. That target was set before the world’s largest LNG facility was hit by Iranian missiles. The refill arithmetic just changed and the continent that refused to send a warship now needs to find gas at record prices from a market it chose not to defend. Non-participation does not mean non-exposure. Europe’s logic is fiscal, political, and strategic. Post-Ukraine debt makes another military commitment unaffordable. Voters have war fatigue. The security establishment is focused on Russia and the Indo-Pacific. These are rational reasons. They are also irrelevant to the gas price. The molecule does not ask whether you participated in the war. It asks whether you can afford the premium created by the war you refused to join. While Europe stepped back, three powers stepped forward. Russia offered discounted pipeline gas and Urals crude to fill the gap. Deputy Prime Minister Novak told markets Russia stands ready to boost supplies. Moscow is selling the war’s dividend to the continent that sanctioned it two years ago, pricing energy below the spot rate that European non-participation created. India accelerated the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor. Adani Ports and Marseille Fos signed an IMEC Ports Club MoU in February, creating a 6,000-kilometre multimodal route from Mundra to Marseille with 40 percent transit time reduction and 30 percent cost cuts. Saudi Arabia committed $20 billion. India is building the physical bypass that Europe will need if Hormuz stays closed for months. China used BRICS coordination calls to position itself as the diplomatic interlocutor for a Europe that refused to fight alongside America. Foreign Minister Wang Yi offered de-escalation mediation. Meanwhile Beijing suspended nitrogen and potassium fertiliser exports, hoarding the molecule that European and American farmers both need. China courts Europe with one hand and starves its agriculture with the other. The courtship is not generosity. It is extraction. Russia sells energy at the premium the war created. India sells logistics at the premium the disruption created. China sells diplomacy at the premium the isolation created. Each power profits from the vacuum that European non-participation opened. None of them are fighting the war either. Urea at $610. China’s export ban closed the second gate on global fertiliser. The Midwest planting window closes in weeks. The Fed holds at 3.50 to 3.75 with PCE at 2.7 and Middle East “uncertain.” Trump told Israel to stop hitting gas fields. Iran threatened to burn the Gulf to ashes. And Europe, which said Iran is not their war, is discovering that the gas price, the fertiliser price, and the grocery bill do not care whose war it is. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…










