OwnerView.ai
37 posts

OwnerView.ai
@OwnerViewAI
Investment Research for Value Investors
Inscrit le Mart 2026
36 Abonnements13 Abonnés

You could buy 100 shares of $AMZN right now for $20,700.
Or you could buy the $200 call LEAP expiring January 2028 for $5,200. Same 100 shares of exposure. 75% less capital. Nearly two years of runway.
The trade:
Strike: $200
Expiration: January 21, 2028
Premium: ~$52.00 per contract
Breakeven: $252
If $AMZN hits $280, this LEAP returns ~54%
If $AMZN hits $300, this LEAP returns ~92%
If $AMZN hits $350, this LEAP returns ~188%
Buying 100 shares at $207 and watching it hit $350 is a 69% return. The LEAP nearly triples that.
Why I like the setup:
- AWS powering both OpenAI ($138B cloud commitment) and Anthropic ($8B investment)
- $200B capex in 2026, the majority going to AI infrastructure
- Analyst consensus target: $280. Barclays at $300. Wells Fargo at $304.
- Stock is down 20% from its November highs
- 668 days to expiration gives the thesis time to play out
The most I can lose is the $5,200 premium. The upside is multiples of that.
Important: I also own shares of $AMZN. LEAPs are one tool inside my system, not the whole strategy. The core is long-term equity holdings and selling options for income. LEAPs are for selective, high-conviction moments when conditions align.
NFA DYOR

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@JS_Value Interesting read! And turns out analysis was really good.
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I've started a Substack. My first post is a deepdive into British American Tobacco. Please have a look: looking4value.substack.com/p/deepdive-on-… $BATS $BTI
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@virattt Cool but tough task. Doing it manually is "nearly impossible" in some cases.
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I'm building a KPI extractor for every stock.
It pulls operational metrics and standardizes them across every company in a sector.
Example for airlines:
• seat miles
• fuel costs
• average fare
• revenue per passenger
Hard part: companies report KPIs differently with unique labels, formats, and tables.
Accuracy bar is 99.9%.

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"The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices."
- Benjamin Graham
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I think one big problem for $CPB is margin compression. They need to find a way to keep margins up, otherwise the price is not going anywhere for them.
Dividend is nice obviously and in combination with a little appreciation could yield nice total returns.
Would love to find out what your long-term assumptions are on $CPB ?

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Not all of my stocks are surging. Certain CPG Food holdings have been under pressure. Today, $CPB tanked to a 52-week low on Q2 results. The key will be holding the line on the dividend & stabilizing earnings. (Disc: I'm long CPB. Not investment advice.) investor.thecampbellscompany.com/static-files/a…
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@michaeljburry Massive growth needed to justify this valuation. Even under very optimistic assumptions (10y rev growth of 30-35% CAGR) would only yield 5-9% 10y earnings yields.

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