Punk Rock Traders

📅 Weekly Recap: Rare Earths Take Center Stage in U.S.-China Trade Talks Musk slams Trump’s $2.4T debt-heavy bill, calling it a “disgusting abomination.” Tariffs double, trade deficit halves, services sector contracts, and the rare earth crisis deepens.

Russia’s playing for time. Europe’s bleeding industry. Trump’s juggling oil and war optics. Sanctions lack bite, and macro headwinds—deglobalization, rising yields, and runaway debt—are what move markets. punkrocktraders.com/research/us-po… #Geopolitics #Ukraine #Oil #Russia #Trump

📈 Weekly Market Recap: - Markets rallied after Trump delayed EU tariffs—S&P +2.2%, Nasdaq +2.6%. - Treasury yields dipped, and consumer confidence beat forecasts. - Labor data showed cracks, but income surged. - Legal uncertainty builds over tariff powers.

Our recent longs are delivering strong gains: $NVDA +71%, $BABA +120%, $GME +89%, $OKLO +118%, even as tariff fears create some pressure on other positions. Seasonal trends and upcoming catalysts support potential rebounds. punkrocktraders.com/research/trade… #Trading #options #investing

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 1919, sparking a selloff and a jump in Treasury yields above 4.75%. Trump’s tariff threats and a huge new tax bill add to market jitters. Dollar hits its biggest weekly drop since April.

🚨 Nvidia $NVDA is not leaving the U.S.—it’s building a “semiconductor embassy” in Taiwan. This move positions it between China and the U.S. as geopolitical tensions rise. Faster chips. Closer to TSMC. Aligned with Foxconn, MSI, Asus. A direct play to outmaneuver AMD & Huawei.

📅 Weekly Recap: Trump Demanding Trade Concessions, Nvidia Moving to Taiwan punkrocktraders.com/research/weekl… #markets #china #nvda #trump #tradewar

🚀 Trade deals are the new market catalysts. U.S.–China rollback sent the S&P +3.3%, Nasdaq +4.35%, Asia rallied hard. But the real winners? Countries striking early U.S. trade deals. #Markets #Trade #Macro #stockmarket #Trump

As U.S. LNG replaces Russian gas in Europe, and China floods Eastern Europe with automakers, the Pentagon eyes pipeline diplomacy—Qatar to Turkey—as the next strategic lever. Industrial power follows cheap fuel. Always has. Always will.

Tariffs cut for 90 days: U.S. from 145% to 30%, China from 125% to 10%. Markets rip—Dow +1,000, S&P +3%, Nasdaq +3.5%. Tech leads: $AAPL $AMZN $NVDA $TSLA. Retaliation paused. Some tariffs stay: 25% on steel, autos, 50% on solar & chips. #stocks #tariffs #china #tradewar

📅 Weekly Recap: High-Level Trade Negotiations Set to Start in Geneva - U.S. trade deficit hits record $140.5B - GDP contracts for first time since 2022 - AI chip export ban repealed - U.S.-China trade talks show "substantial progress" - Fed warns of stagflation risks

U.S. may ease AI chip export bans to China under a potential Trump policy shift—reviving trade talks & fueling a rally in Chinese tech. Semis are now a bargaining chip, not a blockade. $BABA $BYDDF $XIACY $TCEHY punkrocktraders.com/research/repor… #AI #China #Stocks #tradewar #stocks

🚨 FOMC holds rates at 4.25%–4.50% for now. Despite Trump’s calls for cuts, Powell stays cautious. Inflation risks + tariff uncertainty dominate. First rate cut expected in July. #FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Fed

Japanese domestic stocks led post-tariff shock—but with U.S.-Japan trade talks nearing resolution, markets may rotate into export names. A broader U.S. strategy to isolate China could lift Asian trade assets if early bilateral deals ease tariff fears. Watch industrials.

🛍️ Supply chain strain into 2025. 💰 Retailers keeping prices high—margins expanding even as input costs ease. Price stickiness could outlast the tariffs. Earnings may surprise. punkrocktraders.com/research/repor… #Trade #Retail #China #Markets #Tariffs

Amazon $AMZN (-3.21% After hours) reported a robust first-quarter 2025 performance, surpassing expectations. The company's revenue rose by 9% year-over-year to $155.7 billion, beating the forecast of $154.9 billion. Earnings per share stood at $1.59, a significant increase from the predicted $1.38, marking a 62.2% rise from Q1 2024. The company's net income reached $17.1 billion, and operating income grew by 20% from the previous year to $18.4 billion. The company's performance was strong across all segments. AWS, Amazon's cloud computing, was the star performer with a 17% increase in revenue to $29.3 billion. North America sales rose by 8% to $92.9 billion, while International sales grew by 5% to $33.5 billion. Advertising revenue also saw an impressive 18% year-over-year growth, reaching $13.9 billion. Despite the strong Q1 performance, Amazon's stock fell by 4-5% in after-hours trading due to a disappointing Q2 guidance. The projected operating income for Q2 was set between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, falling short of the expected $17.82 billion. However, the revenue guidance for Q2 was set at $159-164 billion, roughly in line with expectations. The company’s strong performance was credited to continued innovation, including advancements in Alexa, record Prime delivery speeds, the introduction of new AI chips, and the successful launch of Project Kuiper satellites to expand rural broadband access.

Apple Inc. $AAPL (-3.78% After hours) reported a strong fiscal first quarter for 2025, with record revenue of $124.3 billion, marking a 4% increase year-over-year. The company's diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a 10% increase from the previous year, reaching $2.40. They reported robust growth across product categories and services, with the Mac and iPad segments showing a notable increase of 16% and 15% respectively. However, iPhone revenue saw a slight decline of about 1%, which could be a cause for concern. Apple's services revenue reached a new all-time high of $26.3 billion, up about 14% year-over-year. Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, highlighted the expansion of Apple Intelligence, which will be available in more languages. Despite some challenges in China and a modest decline in the Wearables, Home, and Accessories category. Apple expects low to mid-single-digit revenue growth in the upcoming quarter, with a continued focus on AI integration, product innovation, and expanding its services ecosystem.

Caterpillar Inc. $CAT reported a 10% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q1 2025, totaling $14.2 billion, which fell short of Wall Street expectations. The revenue drop was primarily attributed to reduced equipment sales volume and unfavorable price realization, largely stemming from adjustments in dealer inventories as demand softened across key markets. The company’s operating profit margin contracted to 18.1%, down from 22.3% in Q1 2024, due to lower sales leverage and cost pressures. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell by 24% to $4.25, reflecting the impact of reduced profitability and volume. Caterpillar reported a record $5 billion increase in its organic backlog, signaling strong future demand and robust order pipelines in the infrastructure and energy sectors. Management cited weaker global machinery demand, persistent raw material inflation, and tariff-related uncertainties as key challenges. Looking ahead, the company projects tariff-related costs of $250 million to $350 million in Q2 2025, which may further weigh on margins if not offset by pricing or efficiency improvements.

Qualcomm Inc $QCOM (-5.69% After hours) has reported record fiscal first-quarter 2025 results, with revenues of $11.7 billion, a 17-18% increase year-over-year, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.41, surpassing both guidance and analyst expectations. The performance was driven by Qualcomm's CDMA Technologies (QCT) segment, which posted record revenues exceeding $10 billion. This included a record $7.6 billion from smartphone-related revenues, a 13% increase year-over-year, largely due to higher volume and increased content in the Android premium tier, particularly from the Snapdragon 8 Elite and Samsung devices. The company's IoT revenues also saw a significant increase, growing 36% year-over-year to $1.5 billion. This growth was fueled by new product launches and AI capabilities across consumer networking and industrial applications. Qualcomm's automotive segment also performed well, achieving its sixth consecutive quarter of record revenues at $961 million, a 61% increase year-over-year. This was driven by growing content in new vehicle launches and demand for high-performance, low-power computing and connectivity chips. CEO Cristiano Amon expressed optimism about the growing AI opportunity and is targeting $22 billion in non-handset revenues by fiscal 2029. Despite potential challenges in maintaining growth in the licensing segment and the ongoing negotiations with Huawei.