Scenario analyses focus on plausible futures but do they then miss import aspects of risk: potential surprises and the unforeseen?
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Risk science
225 posts
Risk science
@RiskScienceInfo
This account provides information about risk science knowledge. From July 2025 it is to be incorporated in @terjeaven
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true, in daily language, an unknown quantity
Probability Fact@ProbFact
A random variable is a measurable function on a probability space.
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Inspired by professor Sven Ove Hansson, the Economics science can be defined as the practice that provides as with the most justified knowledge produced by the economics knowledge discipline (with its researchers, journals, scientific conferences, professional societies, etc)
Peter Boettke@PeterBoettke
Economics is a science just like physics, but it is physics if matter could talk, and if molecules had will. Mill described it as the "inexact science", but Menger was better and explained the different aspects of the science -- exact laws, empirical realistic theory, and economic history (both contemporary [public policy] and in the past [history and development path]). And I side with Vlad Tarko and his invoking of Buchanan's position between science and philosophy.
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I thought and hoped the tension between frequentists and subjectivists was over - as we need both frameworks
Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF@predict_addict
The best statisticians and mathematicians of both XXst and XXist century have nothing but contempt for bayesianism. Sure, one can use bayesianism when one knows the prior exactly - which is basically never. Bradley Effron warns:
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Fortunately we do not always have hard deadlines
Prof Lennart Nacke, PhD@acagamic
Academic success is 5% writing and 95% expertly procrastinating until the deadline pressure kicks in. 😆
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It is generally much more enjoyable to conduct research when it is based on your own ideas and specific projects
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this book is interesting!
Rob Calver@RobCalver5
Check out 'Seminal Ideas and Controversies in #Statistics' by Rod Little. A very interesting book, covering some of the most important papers published in the field, with Rod's personal view on them. I think it could spark a debate! routledge.com/Seminal-Ideas-… #DataScience
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Different scientific environments work with risk and uncertainty topics; here is a conference that mainly attracts economists and decision analysts with interest in mathematical and philosophical issues
sites.google.com/site/rudconfer…
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What does 'at risk' mean in this statement: "Anyone breaking the law is putting themselves at risk of being prosecuted"?
Not that it is certain that they will be prosecuted, but they could be - it is possible. Using the 'at risk' term an aspect of uncertainty is acknowledged. The term may also be interpreted here as expressing that it is likely that they will be prosecuted.
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perhaps meant to express a much lower probability
Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF@predict_addict
“Extremely rare”, like outside 95% interval for normal distribution. #bayesianism
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An interesting paper by George W. Warren, Sarah M. Duckett & Ragnar Löfstedt: An archaeology of risk: a bibliometric analysis of risk research
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
The paper presents a bibliometric analysis of the two journals Risk Analysis and Journal of Risk Research
@SocRiskAnalysis @JofRiskResearch
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but you should not use a risk matrix of this type - it can seriously mis-characterize risk and misguide decision makers and other stakeholders
Joey de Wit@JoeydeWit_
Risk Management 101: 1. Identify potential risks 2. Assess the likelihood and impact 3. Prioritise key risks 4. Develop a strategy to prevent or accept the risks 5. Implement the strategy 6. Review regularly 7. Communicate to stakeholders RM 201: put it in a fancy heatmap
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Risk science retweeté
CALL FOR ABSTRACTS: Submit to present at SRA's 2025 Annual Meeting titled "What Comes Next?" happening in Washington, D.C. from December 7-11, 2025. Be a part of the conversation on the future of risk analysis.
Submission Deadline: June 2, 2025
Link: lnkd.in/ehY7ydtV
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Yes but the probability is much higher when considering the probability of such an event occurring during one or more days
Jamie Kennedy@jamierkennedy
0.37 PERCENT That is the probability of a PGA Tour player hitting an approach from 197 yards to 2 feet or closer. Rory did it. On the 71st hole of the Masters. Tied for the lead. Going for the career slam.
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Not sure if they also ask for nominations of authors on the risk and uncertainty science foundation of their work. That is also needed.
IPCC@IPCC_CH
📣 #IPCC is calling for nominations of authors for the Seventh Assessment Report! IPCC’s WG Co-Chairs explain how your contribution as an author or review editor can help shape the global response to #climatechange. 👉 bit.ly/3XJOb4F Submissions close 17 April
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Has not knowledge a value in itself? hm
philosophy for life@philosophy_life
“The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge.” ― Aristotle
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Assumptions – explicit and non-explicit (tacit) - represent a challenge in science, including risk science. The issue is discussed in the context of risk assessment in this paper:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Data Science Fact@DataSciFact
Unjustified assumptions of independence are the root of statistical evil.
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This is not how we define and understand risk and uncertainty in risk science, see for example the Society for Risk Analysis Glossary
sra.org/risk-analysis-… @SocRiskAnalysis
If we have only risk when objective probability distributions can be obtained (in line with the Knightian terminology) we cannot talk about climate change risk, security risk etc.
Pablo A. Guerron (It's all about uncertainty)@pablo_guerron
A non-technical explanation of the difference between Risk and Uncertainty philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/a… And this is a survey (technical) on the impact of uncertainty on the macroeconomy nber.org/papers/w26768 Visit my website for lectures on uncertainty sites.google.com/site/pabloague…
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Risk science is a science per se, but also multidisciplinary/interdisciplinary when applied - just like statistics
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