
Sebastian Stefanovic
1.3K posts

Sebastian Stefanovic
@SebStefMD
Interventional Endoscopist | Dad & Husband |Advancing GI procedures | Reader of biographies & innovation | Championing capitalism | Go for great
Inscrit le Kasım 2022
251 Abonnements108 Abonnés

Yup, it’s called indefinite pessimism as explained by Thiel: Indefinite Pessimism
Every culture has a myth of decline from some golden age, and almost all peoples throughout history have been pessi-mists. Even today pessimism still dominates huge parts of the world. An indefinite pessimist looks out onto a bleak future, but he has no idea what to do about it. This describes Europe since the early 1970s, when the continent succumbed to undirected bureaucratic drift. Today the whole Eurozone is in slow-motion crisis, and nobody is in charge. The European Central Bank doesn't stand for anything but improvisation: the U.S. Treasury prints "In God We Trust" on the dol-lar; the ECB might as well print "Kick the Can Down the Road" on the euro. Europeans just react to events as they happen and hope things don't get worse. The indefinite pessimist can't know whether the inevitable decline will be fast or slow, catastrophic or gradual. All he can do is wait for it to happen, so he might as well eat, drink, and be merry in the meantime: hence Europe's famous vacation mania.
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You know I am 100% on board with this post and TOTALLY agree that mindset and governance set the tone of how an economy grows and hence how a country feels.
But culture lies under all this, its why middle income countries get trapped as they do, its not (entirely) the labor rate or the easy to measure metrics, its how on very broad averages, people work, how much they care, how detail oriented they are, how much 'honor' they place on a commitment. etc.
I think it is declining generally in Europe which is why its felt acutely.
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🇵🇹 If you have ever dealt with any Portuguese business (and I have with many in my 5 years here) you know why
Portuguese in Portugal simply do not care about work, some foreigners find that refreshing, but it results in a country where you can't find anyone to do work because nobody wants to work
And when they do work, the work is generally bad, like imagine stepping into a time machine back to 1970s bad, they also can't follow the spec you agreed upon beforehand, and then when it's 60% done they disappear and ghost you
When we did home renovatiom, you hire ppl, they arrive late at 9am (you agreed 8am), they then drive away to get materials, come back 11am, do actual work for an hour, then at 12noon announce they go for lunch, come back around 2.30pm, walk around a bit, do some work, and then leave early at 4pm
It's not just construction workers, it's almost every interaction you have here with a Portuguese business, the quality is just low, the service non-existent or customer-hostile, and it's not the language, I speak fluent Portuguese, I'm respectful and friendly which is why I never ever had this amount of issues elsewhere in the world
And I know it's not just my experience, it's everyone I know here, even Portuguese complain about Portuguese!
It's not completely their fault though, the hostile tax system for both people and businesses literally gives you an incentive to never ever scale your business beyond I believe around €150,000/year, because you end up in a completely different category and tax tier that decimates you with more taxes and more bookkeeping
So every business tries to stay small, and doesn't want more customers (how many times have I walked into a Portuguese cafe or shop and the staff or owner *sighed* "not another customer")
Add decades of socialist governments that hand out free money to 50% of the country (and even the right wing parties here are socialist btw, they have to be or they don't get votes) and you don't have any incentive to work left
Why work when you don't need to work?
The majority of the young smart Portuguese people with actual ambitions understandably move elsewhere, because if there's no incentive to grow a business, there's also no jobs for them, and the whole thing becomes a vicious cycle of increasing poverty
Which is why I said Portuguese in Portugal at the beginning of this tweet, because Portuguese outside of Portugal are ambitious, want to work, want to improve their lives!
Bringing in lots of foreigners like me by the government as a way to pump money into the system, we spend a lot and it pays for the welfare, healthcare and retirements of Portuguese now, but it's not a structural solution (and we also instantly became the scapegoat for the government's decades of mismanagement)
It'd be relatively easy to fix this though if people in Portugal would put on their thinking hat:
💡 Make Portugal a great place to start and run a business, model yourself after Singapore but with extremely low taxes (maybe 5-10%) for companies/startups and make it easy for them to hire (and fire) people, the money you lose in taxes you will get back in increased economic activity over time (but it will hurt for a little bit)
Because even the foreigners who move here and start businesses get caught up in the reverse incentive spiral of Portugal:
Why even work?
EuroMaximalist 🇪🇺@euromaximal
There are no words to describe the economic failure that is Portugal. It is now almost as poor as Ukraine, a country literally at war. 50 years after a brutal dictatorship, you’d think an economic miracle would’ve followed like Poland and the Baltics. Total incompetence.
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Sebastian Stefanovic retweeté
Sebastian Stefanovic retweeté
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My conversation with @EricJorgenson, author of The Book of Elon (@elonmusk).
0:00 Book Reveal
0:39 Build Useful Things
2:19 Engineering Talent Edge
4:26 Wired for War
6:47 Tip of the Spear
8:47 Burn the Boats
13:13 Facing Fear
15:16 Origin Story Myths
18:19 Know Business A to Z
22:17 Simplify and Fail Fast
25:35 Reality and Physics
28:18 The Algorithm Begins
30:34 Delete and Simplify
34:25 Starlink War Room
36:52 Repetition as OS
38:18 Step Three Simplify Optimize
38:43 Question Every Requirement
39:13 Tesla Battery Pack Delete
40:43 Repetition Installs Ideas
42:02 Step Four Accelerate
43:26 Design Org for Speed
46:06 Step Five Automate
46:29 Control and Clean Sheet
48:54 Vertical Integration and Costs
50:47 SpaceX Incentives and Mars
57:11 Frontier Unlocks Starlink
1:00:26 Time as True Currency
1:03:58 Speed Triage and Bottlenecks
1:10:11 Internalized Responsibility
1:12:56 Avoid Serialized Dependencies
1:14:31 Aligning the Team
1:15:07 Time Is the Constraint
1:16:00 One Metric Focus
1:18:03 Directional Predictions
1:19:06 We Must Make Stuff
1:25:39 Manufacturing as Moat
1:26:23 Speed and Direct to Customer
1:28:41 SpaceX Feasibility Study
1:33:07 Edge of Sanity Leadership
1:37:10 Bottlenecks and Integration
1:40:01 Design and Simplify
1:45:15 Catch the Rocket
1:48:14 Capitalism and Closing
Includes paid partnerships.
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🚨📕 THE BOOK OF ELON IS NOW LIVE!!! 🎉🚀
This is the book we WISHED @elonmusk would write…
“All of Elon's most useful ideas, in his own words.”
Learn directly from the world’s greatest entrepreneur, like you’re sitting across from him at dinner.
It took FIVE YEARS to make this for you.
Because it's built from hundreds and hundreds of Elon's public appearances.
I went through 3,000,000+ words to collect the most useful and timeless ideas.
The final book is ~50,000 words.
Every word is USEFUL.
(This is what I do. My first book, The Almanack of Naval Ravikant, is one of the top 100 most highlighted books of all time on Kindle.)
Then, I spent $50,000+ on editing and design so it looks and feels beautiful.
Then…
> Foreword by @naval.
> Visuals by @jackbutcher.
> Blurb from @mrbeast.
> Published by @scribemediaco.
> And yes, approval on this idea from Elon himself, thanks to @samteller.
I went Maximum Effort to make this an all-timer.
We got 10/10 on reviews from early readers, then worked on it for ANOTHER YEAR.
Why so much effort?
My mission is to create One Million Musks.
For a generation to lift our gaze and build, so our grandchildren live in a world beyond our wildest dreams.
I’m an independent author.
I don’t get an advance.
I risk my own time and money to make these books.
Then we give away millions of them. Digital versions are free.
I believe this book can benefit every human, and if you can’t pay five bucks for it, I want to personally gift it to you.
Because I know it is useful.
Useful how?
You may be seeking purpose, a mission worthy of your life’s effort.
You may have a clear purpose and seek the tools for success.
You will find both in this book.
Get the benefits of Elon’s entire life of hard-won lessons in a five-hour, easy read.
(I checked, it’s a 5th-grade reading level.)
You’ll feel personally mentored by the greatest entrepreneur in history.
Click below to buy it now on Amazon, Audible, or directly from me.
Amazon: amzn.to/47avSuh
Audible: lnkd.in/gi_7HrFP
Me: lnkd.in/gS2xWUWH
If you’re not sure it’s worth $4.99 yet, just start reading the free version.
PLEASE take 6 seconds to Like, Bookmark, and Repost.
Even better: send this to your friends, team, or Group Chats!
I guarantee this book will improve their lives.
Spread the word!
Every little thing helps.
Your support spreads good ideas around the world, helping people and making the future better for everyone.
Thank you!
Forward. Together.

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Sebastian Stefanovic retweeté

“He is free to evade reality, he is free to unfocus his mind and stumble blindly down any road he pleases, but not free to avoid the abyss he refuses to see.
Man is free to choose not to be conscious, but not free to escape the penalty of unconsciousness: destruction.”
The Virtue of Selfishness by Ayn Rand
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Sebastian Stefanovic retweeté

> work 40 hours a week. pay 30% in taxes
> 401k barely moves. savings account is a joke
> watch someone your age compound faster than you
> they’re not smarter than you
> the people beating markets just learned one thing you never did
> they stopped asking "am I right?"
> and started asking
> EV = pW − (1−p)L
> every decision reduced to a number
> most people chase outcomes
> a few just stack positive EV
> same world
> completely different game
> I wish I had this 10 years ago
Mr. Buzzoni@polydao
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Sebastian Stefanovic retweeté

Most people spend their entire lives swinging between two traps: boredom when life asks too little, anxiety when it asks too much.
Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi called the narrow space between them "Flow"...
and wrote one of the most important books ever written about it.
Here are 10 quotes that will change how you think about happiness:

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Sebastian Stefanovic retweeté


Best podcasts to accelerate your career:
1. The Knowledge Project (Mental Models & Decision-Making)
2. Invest Like the Best (Business Thinking & Strategy)
3. Diary of a CEO (Entrepreneurship & Leadership)
4. The Game with Alex Hormozi (Business Strategy & Execution)
5. Masters of Scale (Scaling Companies & Ideas)
6. Modern Wisdom (Clarity & Personal Growth)
7. The Tim Ferriss Show (Performance & Learning Frameworks)
8. My First Million (Business Ideas & Market Trends)
9. WTF (Entrepreneurship)
10. Lenny’s Podcast (Product, Startups & Career Growth)
11. The Next Wave (AI)
12. Marketing Against The Grain (AI+Marketing)
13. The 505 Podcast (Self-improvement, business, growth)
14. Creator Science (Content creation)
What else would you recommend?
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I was somewhat influenced by @FoundersPodcast but I do have to say it was as impressive as expected! Raisin Canes 😎


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