Carson Clements / Stumptavian Roboclick

If you’re a TO looking for someone who: - Has loads of tournament admin experience - Can spend weeks debating formats and seeds - Is dedicated to making every event their best - Willing to be a paid joke punchline My Twitter DMs are open and my inbox is ready for inquiries!

BOSTON I AM IN YOU (No I totally didn't forget to do this last night shhh) #RLCS

Hey guys this is Sekai! My old Twitter account was locked after I tried to update my birthday, so I would really appreciate it if you could retweet and help me gain back some of my original followers. Thank you all so much for your help!

We made it! Can't say the same for the integrity of the windshield though...

An ode to the one and only Cyan. What an amazing community. #horseracetests @snakesandrews

Get ready to battle it out in a variety of games on April 19th ALL DAY LONG! Join the GameFest Discord NOW and lock in your spot! discord.gg/trg88CR6Q3 Register on start.gg! start.gg/tournament/gam… More info attached in replies:

LF Accommodation for Birmingham Major I have not been hired to admin the playoffs days of the upcoming major so I will be looking for a place to stay for Saturday/Sunday night RTs appreciated

@OliKiwii OCE's strongest observer

RLCS World Champion baby

11:20pm EDT 26th September -- #Hurricane #Helene has made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region at around 11:10pm EDT just E of the mouth of the Aucilla River. Max sustained winds at landfall were estimated at 140 mph & a min pressure of 938 mb. Info: nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…

As #Helene continues to approach the coast, please do not get overly focused on short-term wobbles in its track, "false" eye locations, or on specific computer model simulations. EVERYONE along the Florida Big Bend coast is at risk of potentially catastrophic storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds later this evening, and life-threatening storm surge is already increasing along the west coast of Florida. Continue to follow hurricanes.gov and weather.gov/socialmedia for the latest forecast.

@HurrMark1 I had hopped off this thread a bit ago, but just for clarification - the April CSU forecast for 2013 was 165 ACE. In reality, we had 36. In 2024, the April CSU forecast called for 210 ACE. Currently, we have 55. Even if we have no more ACE, 2024 is still proportionally closer.

@StumpyRobothing @webberweather 2013 was not forecast to be anywhere close as busy as this season. If we end up with 120-150 ACE, which is still quite active, it is as big of a bust quantitatively as 2013.

@webberweather @MassachusettsWx I guess we'll just have to revisit this thread after the season is over, to see which of us was being presumptive/being blind to the actual conditions. Long way to go, unfortunately.

@MassachusettsWx @webberweather Then we can revisit this thread in 2 weeks (the date you said) instead of making presumptive comparisons about a year that couldn't even manage a major in the deep tropics compared to this season, which had one in June/July + which is already matching the season-long stats.

@StumpyRobothing @webberweather My guess is you did not look at this closely..if nothing else develops now through September 15th, we will officially be on track with 1997.

@MassachusettsWx @webberweather Sure, which also makes any comparisons to 1997 or 2013 irrelevant. People are getting too hasty to jump to either down or doomcasting, and I just want us to put on the brakes before doing so. Give time for the season to play out and analyze what went wrong when we have all data.

@StumpyRobothing @webberweather Well 2022 is different. We had 2 storms this August as right about now 2022 got active and this year hasn't yet so it makes 2022 irrelevant

@MassachusettsWx @webberweather 2022 also had a stormless August and started getting active around now as an FYI - also, clearly not 1997, given Beryl + Ernesto + conditions. I get the urge to kind of jump on possible reasons why we're in a lull, but making short-sighted comparisons isn't the way of doing it.

@webberweather @StumpyRobothing @StumpyRobothing here's what 97' looked like

@webberweather @MassachusettsWx A week ago we had 0 signals, the ITCZ was in the middle of the Sahara, and SAL ruled every wave. While conditions still aren't great we've got multiple AOIs with decent chances of formation, a cooling troposphere, a southward-shifting ITCZ, and actual wave formation models like.

@StumpyRobothing @MassachusettsWx Basin-wide conditions are improving? Since when? We are struggling to get even so much as one storm near the climatological peak of the season & haven’t had a new name in nearly 2 weeks, first time that’s happened since 1997.

@MassachusettsWx @webberweather Which, in my opinion, is incredibly presumptive/optimistic when we still have 3 months to go with improving basin-wide conditions. Calling out underperformance is fine, but making direct comparisons and calling it a 2013-level bust is quite a jump from that. That's all.

@StumpyRobothing @webberweather Eric is saying, it's feeling like what happened in 2013 where we expected a above average season then as time went on, it never transpired. Of course that can change later in the season but for now, 2013 is the closest thing that we can relate to as to the season busting.

@webberweather I'm not disagreeing on that front, but I just have an issue with reacting so strongly to associating it with the biggest bust in the NATL instead of a less intense comparison. That kind of verbiage and direct comparison is what I'm taking a bit of an issue with.

@StumpyRobothing Ok? That’s definitely not the point of my tweet though. It’s really just that the forecasts are definitely going to bust, not that we can’t have more activity.

@webberweather in the final 3 months. To call a season a 2013-level bust, you really need to have very limited activity throughout the year, with all storms/invests struggling significantly. That's not the case this year. Even then, there are factors that are improving. Things can change fast

@webberweather Sure, I think you can argue that the more aggressive forecasts in general are out, and hyperactivity is in jeopardy. But we literally had a season 2 years ago that went without a single storm in August only to end up generating nearly 100 ACE with a less favorable pattern (1/2)