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⚡️New Features dropped on the Weather Edge Finder:
Improvements to the EV calculations; An expanded weather tracking history with CLI comparison.
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Weather Edge Finder
417 posts
Weather Edge Finder
@WeatherEdgeFind
Data-backed & game theoretical decisions for Prediction Markets. Free 3 day trial being offered
Inscrit le Ocak 2026
186 Abonnements314 Abonnés
What makes Weather Edge Finder different:
• Only tool with direct Kalshi trade execution — nobody else in the weather niche offers this
• ASOS 5-minute data updates — most competitors rely on slower NWS/weather.gov updates
• Smart position sizing — not just showing edge, but how much to actually bet
• Performance analytics — win rate, ROI by edge bucket, city-level P&L
• Clean, focused UX — built specifically for Kalshi weather markets
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🚨New Feature!
ASOS high of day reading vs. what the official CLI reports number.
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Live trading session using our Weather Edge Finder tool + full review.
Not just what was traded — but why, and what actually played out.
🔗 Link in comments
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Last years MAE (Mean Average Error).
Blend of ECMWF/GFS.
Not NWS, but gives you an idea of the cities volatility by month.
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@0xPhilanthrop The gap definitely exists.
But it’s usually not as simple as one forecast vs price — it’s how the data is shifting in real time vs how the market is adjusting.
That’s really what matters.
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My friend said, “You’ll never make real money on Polymarket.”
A month later I sent him a screenshot:
$38,700 profit in 30 days.
He asked how. I didn’t reply.
Here it is—short:
NOAA runs high-accuracy forecasts (~94% for 24–48h).
Most traders just guess using basic weather apps.
That gap = edge.
Example:
NYC forecast → 93% chance of 74°F
Market price → 9¢
Bot buys at 9¢ → sells near 50¢
No prediction. Just mispricing.
Copytrade → t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
The system:
Scans cities every few minutes
Buys only <15¢
Sells only >45¢
Max $2 per trade
Started with $100.
Runs nonstop.
30+ trades overnight.
3,100+ trades total.
79% win rate.
$38,700 in 30 days.
Still think you can’t make money on Polymarket?
Philanthrop@0xPhilanthrop
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@de1lymoon People hear “5x mispricing” and think it’s easy.
The hard part is knowing when that agreement actually matters — and when it’s already priced in.
That’s where most get it wrong.
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A climate data analyst quit his job and turned $1,000 → $77,000 on Polymarket weather markets
His thesis: "ML weather models see things physics-based models miss and the market hasn't caught up"
He built a 5-model that spots mispriced temperature forecasts in the $0.01 - $0.10 range
The edge is simple:
Weather models update every 6 hours
Polymarket crowds react hours later
When 3+ models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON) agree on a temperature range priced at $0.15 that should be $0.70 that's a ~5x mispricing
> Buy the forecast
> Wait for resolution
> Repeat
If you want to copy trade him, you'll need -> app.fors.market
- connect to website
- select the section "Copy Trading"
- select "Add Wallet to Copy"
- add the trader's wallet "0x594edb9112f526fa6a80b8f858a6379c8a2c1c11"
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@bonduelleioat This is the part most people overlook.
It’s not really about calling one exact number — it’s about understanding the range and structuring around it.
In weather markets, that usually comes down to how the forecast is distributed across brackets.
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the guy worked as a night operator at a weather station in Incheon
12-hour shifts, $1,400/month. every morning at six he'd log the temperature by hand
[account link @Maskache2?via=bondueiie" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@Maskache2?via…]
one day a coworker showed him Polymarket there was a market: "Will it be 7°C in Seoul on January 9?"
the market priced it at 9%. he had just recorded a forecast of exactly 7 degrees
model accuracy for next-day forecasts 95%
he bought everything available at $0.09, next day collected $294 (+871%)
a week later he quit
now he trades 15+ cities simultaneously
every morning at six he opens forecasts and buys positions while everyone's asleep
his edge he doesn't bet on one degree, he buys all the adjacent ones
forecast says 7°C he buys 6°C, 7°C, 8°C and "7°C or higher"
hedges every degree, 80+ positions in Seoul alone at the same time
biggest trades:
/ Tokyo 14°C → bought at $0.36 → collected $919
/ NYC 34°F → bought at $0.12 → collected $175 (+732%)
/ Seoul 7°C → bought at $0.09 → collected $294 (+871%)
he didn't get smarter than the weather he's just the only one reading it
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@magsimich Everyone focuses on the big PnL.
The real takeaway is the process — small edges, repeated over and over.
That’s a lot harder to replicate than it looks.
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ATTENTION: THIS TRADER, Poligarch, EARNED $73,296 betting on the weather on Polymarket
He has 7,722 predictions, and his biggest win is 13.6K, which is impressive
His strategy is simple
He trades very frequently
He captures small price fluctuations 1–5%
He uses arbitrage YES + NO < $1
He often rejects overvalued bets
His advantage lies in trading volume, not large trades
His profile: @Poligarch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@Poligarch
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@polymarketsuc @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @poly_data @PolymarketMoney These are great when they play out, but the key is catching them before they’re obvious.
In weather markets, that usually means tracking how the forecast is evolving vs how the market is pricing it.
That’s really what we focus on surfacing clearly.
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$5,460 ➜ $10,500 TURNS WEATHER POLYMARKET TRADER TODAY
Fresh account, only 35 positions and his big play right now
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 19?
Bought: 10,500 Yes shares at 52c
Invested: $5,460
Now at: 99.9c → position worth $10,490
Profit so far: +$5,029
Check his profile yourself
➜ @soyeon2235?via=traderplus" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@soyeon2235?vi…
Weather markets on Polymarket are printing money daily , exact city temps, small risk, huge upside when the forecast hits.
Want to copy moves like this?
Or trade manually in the fastest tg bot without any vpn?
Follow top weather signals easily via Polygun
Connect for FREE ➜ t.me/PolyGunSniperB…
These markets are one of the cleanest ways to earn right now, low entry, real data, fast wins.
Who’s watching Tel Aviv temps today?
PolymarketSuccubus@polymarketsuc
RIGHT NOW! PROFITABLE WEATHER TRADER OPEN ORDER AT LOW PRICE 0.2c Guys, I’m scrolling Polymarket weather markets and see BeefSlayer dropping another sniper shot order Right now he bought 4,000 shares Yes at 0.2c 👀 on Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 19? Check his profile yourself → @BeefSlayer?via=traderplus" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@BeefSlayer?vi…
→ Entered at 0.2c → risked only $8 → Already at 1.4c → unrealized $54 +575% → If it hits: straight to $4,000 payout This dude is a weather market machine. Same playbook as his legendary Atlanta hit earlier Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on January 25 → 3,000 Yes at 0.2c → just $6 risked → Won $2,990 → Pure profit $2,984 → +49,744% ROI One of the craziest single trades I’ve seen Weather markets on Polymarket are insane for this reason. You can throw in pocket change $5–$10, catch a tight range that nobody else sees, and boom 10x, 100x, even 50,000%+ returns if it resolves Yes. No hype, no politics, no crypto, just data weather info + edge This NYC play is live today, already green and could explode. Think he repeats the +50,000% magic? Or is this one even bigger? English
@0xPhantomDefi Speed matters, but clarity matters more.
In markets like weather, the lag usually comes from how forecast data is evolving vs how it’s priced.
We focus more on surfacing that clearly than trying to out-execute everything.
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One Polymarket account turned $50 into $435,000 using OpenClaw.
No hype. Just execution.
The system runs locally in Rust, executes in milliseconds, and exploits one thing most people ignore — price lag.
Roughly $400–$700 per day.
24/7.
No breaks.
What it actually does:
It watches multiple markets at once and waits for moments where pricing lags behind real movement.
When that gap appears, it enters instantly.
By the time most traders react, the opportunity is already gone.
This isn’t about prediction.
It’s about being faster than the market.
I spent time breaking down how these bots work:
How to reverse-engineer profitable systems
How people use AI to build Rust bots in under an hour
How price lag gets exploited across exchanges
How local execution gives a real edge
How the full deployment actually looks
This isn’t theory.
It’s the exact process behind a working system.
The bot doesn’t sleep.
It doesn’t hesitate.
It just executes.
Copytrade:
t.me/PolyGunSniperB…
Phantom_Defi@0xPhantomDefi
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@0xPhantomDefi Everyone focuses on the bot, but the edge is really just spotting mispricing consistently.
In weather markets, that usually comes from how the forecast is evolving vs how the market is pricing it.
Most people aren’t tracking that part at all.
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Anthropic just updated Claude.
A student used it to turn $1,400 into $238,000 in 11 days.
No trading background.
No coding experience.
Just a laptop and two sleepless nights.
Wallet: 0xdE17
After the update, he read the docs and built a simple Polymarket bot.
Result:
$1,430 → $238,006
• 366 trades
• 62% win rate
• Largest win: $52,700
The logic is almost stupid:
The bot scans markets every few seconds and looks for one thing — mispricing.
If market price deviates from real probability by ~8%+, it enters.
Example:
Market → 30¢
Fair value → ~55¢
The bot buys. Waits. Exits on repricing.
No predictions.
No opinions.
Just inefficiency.
Biggest trade:
Trump executive order market
Entry → 28¢
Exit → 81¢
+$52,700 on a single position.
That’s not luck.
That’s attention arbitrage.
Full wallet:
0xde17f7144fbd0eddb2679132c10ff5e74b120988
Copytrade:
t.me/PolyGunSniperB…
People ask him how much capital you need.
He said:
“I had $1,400 and a sleepless night.”
Anthropic built the tool.
He just used it.
Phantom_Defi@0xPhantomDefi
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A 2°F bracket is narrow.
Even the best forecasts in the world average over 1°F of error.
This means the probability of any single bracket rarely exceeds 35-40% even when you have a strong forecast.
The market is inherently uncertain, and the bracket structure amplifies that uncertainty.
This has profound implications for strategy.
You are never betting on certainties.
A “good” bet at 30¢ means you believe the bracket has roughly a 35-40% chance of hitting — which means it misses 60-65% of the time.
Losing streaks are not a sign of a broken system.
They are the mathematical reality of betting on 30-40% probability events.
If you are uncomfortable losing 6 out of 10 bets, temperature markets are not for you.
The edge is in the math over large samples, not in any individual bet.
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@ox_sherlock Appreciate that, seriously. As soon as we have a Polymarket version live, you'll be one of the first to know!
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@WeatherEdgeFind Thanks mate.will be number 1 subscriber when poly version comes.
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⚠️This is what we’ve been warning people about.
Our tool isn’t an execution bot — that’s a losing strategy for 99% of market participants for many reasons.
It’s built to aid decision-making, track bet analytics and weather accuracy, and provide a cleaner order book with true depth of market for precise entries.
developing valhalla - h/acc@valhalla_dev
The "OpenClaw made me $ x,000 from trading prediction markets/crypto" stories were pretty much all affiliate scams. They're getting paid by Kalshi and Polymarket to post about and popularize automated trading via LLM bots. Both companies pay for posts that get a lot of impressions, because they make money off of raw trading volume. They bot tweets, YouTube views, etc. to get content going in the algorithms. Then tons of people are tricked into just downloading OpenClaw, handing it the keys to their wallets and letting it run, 99.99% of the time losing all of their money. There are a handful of VC backed startups that are basically only making money off of these affiliate scams. Not "small VC's with very little following" but the biggest ones in the US. I'm not going to call them out because I do not have the budget, time or interest in fighting with legal, but if you know of the big wigs in the US VC space, especially around crypto, it's not hard to guess. I can't pretend to know how VC money works, because my immediate next question would be "how are you going to make money for the VC's if all of your money is coming from Polymarket/Kalshi affiliate revenue" but my assumption is that you get your initial revenue from affiliate income, then you pivot to infrastructure or something reasonably stable after you get a huge wave of followers from the initial (likely botted) exposure. I have seen at least one OpenClaw startup with VC backing do this. Once you pivot to infrastructure ("run your OpenClaw bot on my VPS infrastructure that's just DigitalOcean with a couple bash scripts") then you're making money off of people deploying OpenClaw bots on your infrastructure, then Kalshi/Polymarket make money off of those people losing all their money trading. The entire grift is wholly based off of ensuring your customers lose every dime. It's pretty shocking, unless you've been following how grifty the space has been for a while. I'm an AI believer. I played around with OpenClaw a lot. I've built my own harness (in Rust, btw) and really believe that there's a bright future for agents. There is so much grift in the space right now that has to get shaken out for that to happen, though. Unfortunately, it's going to victimize a lot of early users first.
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@ox_sherlock Yep, I found the offerhub email and followed through with your request. Again, thanks for all your support 🙏
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@WeatherEdgeFind Hello sir, did you finish the subscription wish that i requested?
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Who Is on the Other Side?
Understanding your counterparty matters.
Temperature markets have several participant types:
• Market makers provide liquidity by maintaining bid-ask spreads. They are not expressing weather views — they are earning the spread. They reprice based on order flow and basic models. They are not your primary adversary; they are infrastructure.
• Algorithmic traders may ingest real-time ASOS data and reprice brackets within minutes of new observations. On same-day markets, they can be fast. Their edge is speed, not necessarily accuracy.
• Retail bettors are often anchoring to the headline NWS forecast number or gut feel. They tend to over bet favorites and under bet adjacent brackets. They are a source of edge.
• Sharps are traders with systematic approaches — people who have done the work to understand forecast errors, per-city biases, and probability distributions. You want to be in this category.
The game is not about beating the best algorithmic trader on speed.
It is about finding spots where the market consensus — the combined output of all these participants — is slightly wrong and having the patience to act only in those spots.
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