Phillip Roberts

@TedPillows We couldn't just have one, ONE day without this kind of shit?

Mr Tariffs is back.

@SamanthaLaDuc No, they're not. But I think any rational person who looked at what was on the table and thought this admin would legitimately move forward or wished it needs their heads examined. It was the safest I'm 99% he backs down trade I've ever made. What's next is now the question?

Binary events are NOT easy to call or trade with conviction. Some think they can smell the Trump TACO in the room: “civilization - decimated” talk. Escalate to de-escalate game theory stuff. Not my game. What I smell are charts, flows & motivations. On Trump’s agenda: THIS WAR IS NOT DONE, so my form read is that volatility is what will stay in the room with us all year. On positioning ahead of THIS event, here is what I posted to clients: “Mechanical buyers can step in IF price rises to above the gamma flip level (~6650). CTAs are modelled to buy USD148bn of global equities over 1 month (USD47bn in the US alone) Point is: Right-tail risk enters the conversation, again, once we get above - and despite war escalation (and US isolationism) afoot with ground troops deploying to the Middle East for more conflict. Why? Because upside calls or call spreads in MAG7 names give you the hedge to your downside protection. I don't make the rules. But I can remind a really basic one: Trends need fundamentals for conviction (read: organic) buyers to keep the bullish momentum in play. Or intervention. Like real, lasting, trusted peace. And what are Vegas odds of that?!”

@assface_burner Yesterday was the most telegraphed trade setup I have ever seen, in 20+ years. Anyone honestly thinking that this *wasn't* the outcome, needs their head examined. Only question I have now is, what's next. Either way, made so much yesterday I really don't care. Can just wait..

An entire civilization of traders was destroyed last night never to be brought back again

@assface_burner It was in fact my trade of the year, my biggest day for sure. I essentially took puts Monday night, closed them yesterday morning, hit stage one calls, then rolled (true parlayed) it all into $6750C's that I closed overnight. Hedge Fund Guy = undefeated. Account, +50% one day.

The fomo cope going around this morning is wild Next time, make a friend at a hedge fund or follow someone who has one Bessent told them on a conference call Monday this was happening I heard about it later that day from my hedge fund plug and shared it with you all If you follow me, you did NOT miss this gap up on $spx, or at a minimum were not caught short This was the trade of the year. Accounts, including my own up multi x overnight. Time for a trading break. Shitposts okay.

@TedPillows Sometimes the best trade, is no trade while waiting for a trade. I wasnt going to swing long where it was, but I will start scaling shorts in those upper liquidity clusters now.

Most of the upside liquidity for $BTC has been taken out. There's one liquidity cluster around the $73,000-$73,500 level, which MMs could tap. After that, there are big liquidity clusters below the $71,000 level, which could be the next target.

@unusual_whales To be fair, this is like the lowest hanging fruit of low hanging fruit for AI to pick. People who know how to leverage Ai in this space will put the ones who dont out of business. You cant compete with the productivity, you just cant.

65% of marketing jobs may not survive AI, per AdWeek.

@JohnLoc18 All gaps fill, eventually. This one I'd agree sooner than later. Gotta fill all that exit liquidity first.

$SPY current gap: PPI-CPI on Thursday and Friday this week.

@JohnLoc18 I know better, that's why I only trade SPX on IBKR or /ES calls, for THIS very reason. If you're holding SPY calls right now, I wouldn't start counting the bands just yet.

If you have $SPY calls tomorrow sell it then switch to puts, double them profits, the gap is too big it will get filled. 👌👌

@assface_burner Exit, liquidity. Close all my calls for almost 300%. This folksy is why you trade SPX calls on IBKR, or trade /ES options. If you're holding SPY calls, I'd be as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs right now.

I sold all my $spx calls for all expiries and took 6750p insurance for Friday for everything else I can't sell right now good luck

@ThePrimeagen It involved perhaps the largest plate of Mexican food I've ever seen. Perhaps, the best plate the world has maybe seen ever of #TACO's known to man. Frankly, it was family sized order.

can someone explain to me this after hours movement?

@TraderJonesy Whos gonna tell him?

I am still 40% sized into May puts for $SPY. If we see 662 by open or higher, I will go 70% size. If we see 670 I will go 90% size. I don’t necessarily want to see 670 but I have dry powder in case of it. Personally if you ask me, I do not think we will see a resolution or peace deal. And the last person you want to call bluff on if that’s the case is Trump. I am continuing to build May puts into the levels I mentioned above. And I am not worried in the slightest. Now I know there are a bunch of trolls that will come out after I say this. But this still stands. There is a 70% probability that the #SP500 hits $642 by tomorrow. There is still that 85% chance that the #SP500 hits $642 by Thursday. Thats based on historical data from my system. It’s not always right. But most of the time it is. I am about 40% sized into May puts. I am about 50% sized into 14 DTEs. The May puts are for a larger move. The shorter dated are playing to the move to 642 and 631. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

@salmaogs Those puts were sold to open, or a hedge. They 99% were not bought to open. This is the problem with naked flow reads, you can see it, you know its there, but I looked at it and although it was above the mid (read-bought), I'm 99% they were STO.

Chat, are these short dated $QQQ put buyers for $58.8M cooked?

@HeroDividend Who's going to tell him? I hope you like your Mexican food EXTRA spicy. 🌮🌮🌮

@GuyTalksFinance Any bets on how big Papa Warren's outperformance when he deploys enough cash (checks math) that could buy 90% OF the S&P 500 companies will be? He's not sitting on $400b for no reason.

Berkshire Hathaway is underperforming the S&P 500 by more than -30% over the last year. Someone needs to remind Warren Buffett that time in the market beats timing the market.

@SamanthaLaDuc How this in any way could be construed as *COULD* be a war crime is beyond me. We know POTUS simply doesn't care as in his mind how could he be committing any war crimes against "animals". Very disappointing.

"could"?! Still amazes me. Allies refuse to partake in Trump-Netanyahu's war crimes, but our US Congress continues to support. 😡

@GuyTalksFinance *Results not guaranteed*.

Never underestimate the power of compound interest. Investing $1,000/month into the S&P 500 will turn you into a millionaire.

@SamanthaLaDuc Market doesn't care, but they're going to. The avg consumer in the US is already stretched SO incredibly thin (20+ years as a personal banker) that when nobody has money to either buy things, or pay bills. They then will care. Inflation up, rates up, consumer down.

Wars are always Inflationary Market, show me you care.

@SamanthaLaDuc What I fail to understand is how do people NOT see "this is not priced in". We're going to be extremely lucky if we avoid catastrophic damage to the economy, at best it's going to be moderately damaging. If oil continues to go up it's going to be very, VERY painful what happens.

Pretty simple, the fundamentals go like this: "Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Trump, last night. Me, on repeat: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In samanthaladuc.com/p/flows-not-fu…

@GuyTalksFinance Is anyone going to tell him what's inside index funds?

@TheGoldPrairie If we avoid that scenario, it's going to be a miracle.

If I had to guess, this is where I think the S+P is ultimately headed. I don't have a timeline but the Bear Market has begun imo Approximately a 40% drop from here