Nitin R@finallynitin
Market Quadrant 05/2026
A hard-money environment with very selective setups and fewer structural breakouts. Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash till the non-event of the union budget is over, & start deploying pilot positions only if next week follows through.
⦿ Bias: Bear
The long-term structure remains weak. Over 50% of stocks continue to trade below their 200-day SMA. Although participation improved marginally from last week, only about 25% of stocks are above this level. So the bias is bearish.
⦿ Trend: Downtrend
Market breadth remains unsupportive. Net new 52-week highs have stayed negative for three consecutive sessions. Major indices continue to trade below their 50-day moving averages, with only about 21% of stocks above the 50-DMA.
⦿ Swing: Sideways / early upswing
A brief mid-week bounce lacked follow-through. While a growing number of stocks are sustaining above their 10-day averages and short-term breadth has improved, these are early signals. Swing confidence remains at zero.
⦿ Momentum: Negative and worsening
Overall momentum remains in the red. Defense, PSE, and IT show relatively stronger and improving momentum, while metals, PSU banks, and commodities are weakening. The environment continues to favor capital preservation over risk-taking.
Link to complete blogpost:
finallynitin.substack.com/p/market-quadr…
