BTR

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing multiple U.S. officials, Iran has targeted the joint U.S.-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean with two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM). According to the report, one missile failed in flight whilst the other was engaged by a U.S. destroyer utilizing an SM-3 interceptor, but a successful interception was not confirmed. None of the missiles hit the base. This is notable as Iranian long-range precision fires have not previously been publicly assessed as having the range to hit such a target as Diego Garcia, as the base is some 4,000 kilometers from Iran proper.

The Khorramshahr-4 is likely the intermediate-range ballistic missile that Iran used in the attempted attack on Diego Garcia, which analysts had previously assessed may have a range of +4,000km, though it had only been proven at between 2,000-3,000km. Such an attack would suggest that the Khorramshahr-4, which can carry a cluster and other unconventional warheads, could be used by Iran to strike almost the entirety of Europe, possibly as far as France and the United Kingdom.

I asked a retired U.S. Marine familiar with amphibious operations about a MEU on Kharg Island. Granted, this person doesn't have "OSINT" in his Twitter bio, so what the hell would he know? But this is what he told me, contra Trump's claim this is a "simple military maneuver": "Amphibious landings are by nature high risk and a lot can go wrong even in the best conditions. The Marine Corps has lost equipment during exercises, for example when an Abrams tank was sunk during an exercise on the coast of Spain in the 2010s. "An amphibious landing on Kharg is within the capability of the United States to accomplish, but at what cost and to what end? Once the Marines fight their way ashore and take their objective, they will be on an island with limited cover, very close to hostile Iran. How long could the Marines hold this island, under bombardment, before they would need to be withdrawn? "As for the danger, I think of amphibious assault as being akin to airborne assault. A lot of this depends on the tactical advantage of speed and surprise. "What the Marines are working against here is that everyone knows they're coming. And there are only so many places that are suitable for a landing. Need a suitable approach, favorable tides, etc. the Iranians understand this and will plan for it. "It is reasonable to expect that they will try to attack the transports en route, that they will attack while the ships unload, that they will attack the landing craft while they move from the ships to the beach, and that the troops will be attacked as they assault from the beach to their objectives. "Once the Marines are at their objective, they'll be attacked there too because Iran, and any other interested party to the conflict, will know exactly where the Marines are. "We're also 13 years removed from major combat operations in GWOT. There are still combat veterans at middle and upper echelons, but the majority of troops are not combat veterans. They're new guys."

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces the US is ON THE VERGE of 100% completing the Iran war, and that America will NOT be responsible for securing the Strait of Hormuz once it's won "We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider WINDING DOWN our great Military efforts..." NO FREE RIDES! "The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!" "If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them."