Election Predictor and Political Commentary

I'm one person. Unemployed. It's harder for me than a team w/ regression software costing £1,000s, but I adopt many features in my regression model to ensure accuracy. Support me with a one-off or monthly tip at ko-fi.com/electionpredic… #GeneralElection #GeneralElection4thJuly

Gorton and Denton by-election RESULT Green 14,980 Reform 10,578 Labour 9,364 Con 706 Lib Dem 653 MRLP 159 AdvUK 154 RejoinEU 98 Libertarian 47 SDP 46 Communist 29 Green GAIN from Labour #GortonDentonByElection #GortonandDentonByElection #GortonAndDenton

Greens are so confident they’ve won it that @MothinAli is crowdsurfing at their volunteers party.

Good morning everyone! Meet our newest senior - ROSIE 💕 Rosie is approx 9 years old and came to SSC as she was left behind with a family member when the lady moved out. Unfortunately the gentleman was unable to care for Rosie due to his own health & financial issues 😞

@PeterCrerar Certainly not out of the question

@predictorelect What do you make of all the bookies odds favouring the Greens and suggesting a Caerphilly type result?

On the GB-wide polling published in the past 7 days, this is my model's forecast for Gorton & Denton, Andrew Gwynne's former seat: Labour 30.2% (-20.5%) Reform UK 27.7% (+13.6%) Green 24.9% (+11.7%) Others 6.6% (-3.7%) Conservative 6.0% (-1.9%) Lib Dem 4.6% (+0.7%) Labour HOLD

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@sibarnes2000 They do, but they are simulated regional vote shares, not actual ones. So everything we currently have has a trade off, so I decided to go with GB-wide polls as they are the most established and ‘reliable’ way of getting polling figures.

@predictorelect What about the larger MRP polls? They predict by seat so must have totals per country?

GE2029 forecast as at 30/01/2026 @ 11:27am Reform 324 (+319) Labour 94 (-317) Lib Dem 82 (+10) SNP 44 (+35) Conservative 40 (-81) Green 29 (+25) Plaid Cymru 10 (+6) Others 8 (+3) Speaker 1 NI 18 Reform short of majority by 2 Changes w/ GE2024 #Conservative #Labour #ReformUK

@sibarnes2000 Crosstabs are notoriously unreliable, which is why this model uses the slightly less localised, but much more reliable, GB-wide polling (UK-wide polling is not included to be as granular as possible).

@predictorelect The pollsters used to release the raw data. Don’t they do that anymore as that would show voting by region.

@sibarnes2000 With Wales and Scotland, polling is infrequent, and that's another limitation. But polling is a big part of election forecasting, and the only information that can be used is the polling data available.

@sibarnes2000 This is one of the limitations at present, but I believe the effect of this to be rather small. Obviously the aim is to build a model using current polling as well as demographic regression; this is the only way of doing so for England as there isn't much England-only polling.

You can view the forecast vote percentages for each party in each constituency here: blush-chrysa-58.tiiny.site/30012026.csv

The forecast used the weighted average polling of published opinion polls conducted over the past 7 days (between 23rd January and 11:27 this morning) for GB polling, and the latest published poll available for Scotland and Wales.

Just a reminder that I'm also on Bluesky! bsky.app/profile/electi…

@THE_Chris_Evans Absolutely. There is still much we don't know, like whether this surge for Reform really will hold up for a start.

@predictorelect I think people on the left voting for the Tories to keep Reform out is still a very untested theory.

Fareham and Waterlooville GE2029 forecast as at 27/01/2026 Reform (Suella Braverman) 36.8% (+18.7%) Conservative 25.0% (-10.1%) Lib Dem 19.1% (+0.1%) Labour 10.6% (-12.3%) Green 7.0% (+3.9%) Others 0.6% (-0.3%) Reform GAIN from Conservative #SuellaBraverman

@THE_Chris_Evans Other regression models are actually forecasting a significant dip in the Lib Dem vote share in this seat, which I would find to be illogical even if they don't leapfrog the Tories, and my regression model also believes it to be illogical.

@THE_Chris_Evans I say this because, at the moment, tactical voting would logically be around the most likely candidate to keep Reform out. At the moment, that isn't the Lib Dems, but closer to the election it may well be.

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