FoolsGoold

If you are looking for a likely end date of the war, it will likely be when Trump meets the Chinese May 14 and reaches a deal on Chinese access to the Gulf oil, or not.

Trump agrees to permanently open Strait to Chinese ships in return for Chinese not sending carrier killer missiles to Iran. So much for a blockade of the blockade.

The USA blockade of the Strait is really a blockade of Chinese ships moving Iranian oil to China. Outcome: Houthis shut down Red Sea and proxy war with China which then supplies Iran with mach 4/180 mile range carrier killer missiles, or not.

If I were the Iranians I would be using Mar-A-Lago as target practice for my cruise missile loaded Kilo Class submarines right about now, but since I am not Iranian, what do I know ?

On March 3 I declared that the Iranian strategy would be to take every hit and close the Strait of Hormuz until the USA came begging to end the war ... and that is exactly how it went. Time to start getting used to paying aya TOLL yas at the "Strait of Iran"

The next shoe to drop ... With USA bases all deserted and no ability to mass troupes, Iraq will now invade Kuwait again and take it over as its newest province, or not.

I've been waiting for the light bulb to go off in Iranian heads ... don't they know about the Trump International Hotel & Tower in Dubai and a $500 million resort in Oman ?

Want $200.00 per barrel oil ? ... then land some Marines on Kharg Island . Are they going to do it ? Let's rephrase that question ... How stupid do you think they are ?

Is the USA farm economy going to collapse this year with many thousands of farmers going out of business because of tariffs and the Iran War closing the Strait ? China market gone. Fuel prices climbing. Fertilizer prices climbing.

If you go back through my posts since Sept 1 it is clear that I predicted the market top and a new war in Iran based on various "tells". No or not.

It is now reasonable to expect Price Controls by the end of the year. It will take 10 years to return to the pre-war volumes of oil and gas exports from the Gulf. Europe will be forced to end the Ukraine war by October and rebuild the Russian Gas Pipelines. or not ?

So now Iran is going to hit major cities and sites in Ukraine in retaliation for Ukraine providing drones to Israel. Apparently Iran has missiles that can hit Finland, so hitting the entirety of Ukraine is easy.

I got 2 "tells" right about the Iran War, see 09/1 and 01/3 posts. My insistence, (10/23, 12/5, 01/2 posts) that a market top was forming, (they were getting backroom info about the war ?), has proven correct. I became frustrated when they didn't pull the trigger (01/05 post).

What about closing the Strait of Hormuz and the effect on the Petro Dollar and GCC country investment in global stock and bond markets ? Did anyone sit down and think this through before they started bombing ?

It isn't just oil and gas coming out of the Strait of Hormuz that is stopped, it is food coming in. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries import 80 percent of their food through the Strait. 60 % of GCC water comes from desalination plants that are sitting ducks for drones.

The Iranian strategy will now be to take every hit the USA and Israel wants to deliver, and then keep closing the Strait of Hormuz and destroying neighboring energy infrastructure until the USA comes begging on its knees to reopen it ... 3 months from now.

Insurers are now canceling war risk coverage for vessels in the Middle East. That stops both oil transport and container transport without the need to actually close the Strait.

Iran has 3 advanced Russian built Kilo class submarines capable of firing cruise missiles. I'm glad I had a chance to visit the White House last month for one last time.

With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, the next move on the global chess board is for Venezuela to shut down all oil production which is not used for domestic purposes and declare that they will blow up their wells if the US intervenes.

I won't predict, but I will comment ... Taking control of Venezuela's oil was the "tell" that the Strait of Hormuz was about to get shut down in a war with Iran .