Next Wave 后浪

@bboczeng 美股最强的地方是能把全球美元吸过来，最危险的地方也是：一旦增量美元不够，这些超级融资就会开始挤出二级市场里的高估值资产。所以真正该看的不是 SpaceX 谁买，而是买 SpaceX 的钱，是新钱，还是从 NVDA、AVGO、TSLA、软件股里卖出来的钱。新钱进来是牛市续命，老钱腾仓就是结构性抽血。

@Web3_Jarin Hello

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@ManOfFocus_ It’s very difficult to start first step

Step 1: Make money. Step 2: Manage it. Step 3. Multiply it. Getting rich is literally a game. It involves focus, knowledge, strategy, foresight, patience, and discipline. Get good at it.

@ManOfFocus_ Being unavailable with no output is just hiding. Being unavailable because you’re building something undeniable is the whole game.Disappear with purpose. Reappear with receipts

In the next 4 months, Be the man who has zero desire to be seen. Just busy, paid, hard to reach, and out of sight. You'll go far in life.

带大家看一下 @aleabitoreddit 这条，SpaceX IPO 最牛逼的地方不是“巨无霸上市会不会吸血”，而是它可能变成一个全球资金买美元资产的新入口。普通 IPO 是市场消化供给，SpaceX 这种级别可能反过来吸引海外增量资金流入美国

@ChengyuanBase 互关

正在努力回关，大家等等啊 #蓝V互关

@k_kula7 互关一下，加油

纪念一下，破100了，感谢大家，中文区强大Power💪。哈哈，每分每秒都要刷下有没有新的follower，生怕回关慢了一秒。

@hanking66 仙人这套我觉得核心不是“硬喊多”，而是相信周期还没走完。分歧越大的时候，才越考验这个判断。

很多人问我，为什么明知道要下跌，还要继续喊多？明明有那么多利空，还要硬着头皮喊，不怕坑人吗？ 这就太后视镜了，那是你跌了才这么觉得。从3月底到现在，已经涨了9周。第一个月就有人喊空，但没跌。第二个月还是有人喊空，又没跌。现在涨到现在，总算喊对了。那你觉得前两次喊空的那批人去哪里了？真的有人能精准预测这次下跌吗？别告诉我你能预测到纳斯达克连涨九周，反正我是预测不到。 下跌时，市场总会找到利空理由，所以跌时买入一定是逆趋势的，喊多一定是反人性的。你想买便宜货，就势必在情绪最差的时候买入。 但我是向前看的，我是马前炮博主。我不觉得美股趋势变了，非常有信心年底再创新高。那我为什么不趁下跌多买一点？ 我不介意在下跌中当小丑，这说明我做的是正确的。现在我越小丑，说明买的便宜货越多。未来新高时，我才能装更大的逼。我自己是这样赚钱的，也希望关注我的人能这么赚钱。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@ohyishi 理智清醒且善良真诚

@FuSheng_0306 傅老板精力真好，对新产品充满好奇和探索欲！

迫不及待开始用Fable 5了，让它给我做个网页版的红警。 三年前我用AI编程做贪吃蛇，发推特说"留给人类程序员的时间不多了"。 一帮程序员追着我抬杠："你让它写个王者荣耀试试？" 今天我觉得，Fable 5没准真能行。刚才它还问我要不要尤里的复仇，全给我规划好了，现在已经开干了。 大家等我消息，明天咱们验收一下，看这个传说中的神话寓言，是不是真的那么神，看看布林说的AGI是不是真的来了。

@tim_cook Niubility,Great Apple,Great Mr Tim Cook

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@hanking66 甲骨文今晚要是真能白衣白马救纳指，本质也不是它自己封王，而是替 NVDA 证明：AI 基建这桌饭还没散。白马可以是甲骨文，但王冠还在英伟达头上。

盘后还有甲骨文财报。。。能不能身穿白衣，身骑白马，拯救纳斯达克一盘。 这可是甲骨文口碑逆袭的最好机会！！！来证明自己吧！！！让大家知道谁才是纳斯达克永远的王！！ Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

@bboczeng 跑赢就是渗透率革命，跑不赢就是毛利被卷。所以上游硬件/存储/网络未必受伤，真正承压的可能是那些靠 AI 叙事撑估值、但没有定价权的软件股。市场接下来不是不买 AI，而是重新区分谁卖铲子、谁被卷。

OpenAI终于要打价格战了，这是好事啊！ 降价意味着竞争，有利于消费者 同时，它会改变模型，压缩Anthropic IPO乃至SpaceX中来自AI营收的估值 同时也意味着AI Frontier Labs和CSP们未来要更多融资 这将给下半年的美股带来不小压力 但不影响上游硬件厂商的营收，他们就在这里磨多头，磨IV，慢慢横着吧 现有存储仓位暂时不动了 等CNN Extreme Fear + SPY大跌10% 再考虑继续抄底， 比如ORCL和软件 😂😂😂

The real edge here isn’t “retail is smarter than institutions.” It’s latency. Retail can move on bottleneck shifts before sell-side coverage, ownership screens, and consensus models catch up. Once institutions appear on the cap table, the easy part of the repricing may already be gone. For Foci/optical, what would make you change your mind first: capacity, margins, design wins, or customer concentration?

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

@bboczeng AI 能替代一部分执行，但替代不了上下文、判断、取舍和兜底。尤其游戏这种东西，不是“做出来”就完了，而是要有人判断它值不值得做、好不好玩、能不能卖、出了问题谁背锅。

我有一个问题，既然Mythos的代码能力这么强 为什么全世界各大游戏厂商的开发速度，还没有翻倍？ AI难道不应该大幅减少游戏开发经费 减少烂尾频率，提早发行时间？ 另外，所谓“重制版”，难道不是应该半年出一个吗？ 《仙剑奇侠传》怎么还没上？ 不是一个Prompt就能搞定的事情吗？ 谢谢大家

Haven’t gotten hands-on with Fable 5 yet, but this is the exact kind of review that makes me pay attention.The interesting part isn’t “better at coding” — it’s the shift from autocomplete/agent to something with judgment: measure, log, verify, then decide.That’s the line where a model stops feeling like a tool and starts feeling like a teammate.Really curious how much of that “big model smell” holds up in messy real-world repos.

Fable 5 is the biggest step up I’ve felt in our models since Opus 4.5 back in November. After 4.5 came out I uninstalled my IDE when I realized that I’d been doing 100% of my coding in a terminal for a few weeks. With Fable, it’s felt like Claude has stepped up from being a coding agent to a thought and design partner in building the product. Fable has judgement, taste, and dimensionality in a way that previous models didn’t, leading me to trust it more with the most complex work. I think the first time I had this realization was when I asked Fable to debug something. It is the first model I have used that was so methodical and precise, taking measurements and adding logs then verifying that it truly fixed the issue before declaring victory. There’s nothing in claude code’s prompting telling the model to do that, it’s just part of its personality. It really has this “big model smell” that I haven’t felt before.

This is bigger than it sounds.Scheduled deployments + vault env vars + dynamic workflows means agents are no longer just “chat with code” — they’re becoming actual software infrastructure.The real unlock is when a Claude agent can wake up every morning, check prod, open PRs, run tests, and deploy safely without leaking secrets.Would love to see a full demo of that workflow.

New from Code with Claude Tokyo: scheduled deployments and environment variables in vaults are in public beta in Claude Managed Agents, and dynamic workflows in Claude Code are generally available. Agents now run on a schedule, use your tools securely, and take on bigger jobs.

@youngstockuser 钱在路上，谁把路修好就进谁口袋里，抓紧筑基修路，让钱沿途下蛋

股市崩了 黄金崩了 加密崩了 钱都去哪里了？ 谁能告诉我！

@bboczeng 美股最强的地方是能把全球美元吸过来，最危险的地方也是：一旦增量美元不够，这些超级融资就会开始挤出二级市场里的高估值资产。所以真正该看的不是 SpaceX 谁买，而是买 SpaceX 的钱，是新钱，还是从 NVDA、AVGO、TSLA、软件股里卖出来的钱。新钱进来是牛市续命，老钱腾仓就是结构性抽血。

我很好奇，甲骨文宣布要融资400亿，SpaceX IPO 750亿，谷歌已经融了850亿，Meta也要融800亿，OpenAI + Anthropic IPO大概又需要800亿 这个市场最后，到底是谁来买单？ 真的就是养老金和外国散户吗 SPY还能撑住吗？ 谢谢大家！ 😂😂😂

@hanking66 好公司 IPO 长期肯定不是吸血，反而是美股不断吸引全球资金的核心原因。但短期问题可能不在“上市”本身，而在 SpaceX 这种级别的资产一旦定价太高，机构会不会先卖一部分高估值 AI/科技股去腾仓位？所以关键不是 IPO 利空还是利好，而是：这次是新增资金进场买 SpaceX，还是场内资金换仓去买 SpaceX？

cpi 的雷已经排完，盘后甲骨文救市，然后 spacex ipo，然后 mu 救市，接着 fomc，最后 pce，我不觉得后面还能怎么跌，跌的理由是什么？ipo 吸血？一个好公司上市会吸引更多的资金入市，在我这里 ipo 就是利好，我希望越来越多的好公司上市，好公司越多，美股的吸引力越强，你看看大 a，那边没吸血，也没见有多强流动性😂😂这和做生意一样的，盘子是要越做越大的，而不是盯着盘子里边的三瓜两枣。 把 ipo 当利空，格局小了一点。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。