Peter Cunningham 🇨🇦

Tariff refunds will total billions of dollars. Now, you might reasonably ask who looked at all this and cheered. Good question. Allow me to introduce you to them. Two thirds of Trump’s voters in 2024 did not have a college degree. That is not an insult. That is a Pew Research finding. The gap between college graduates and non-graduates voting Republican was 13 points in 2024, wider than in 2020, and wider again than in 2016. It is a chasm that keeps getting bigger.  These are the people who watched a man promise that China would pay America’s bills, nodded thoughtfully, and voted for him anyway. Twice. In some cases three times, if you count the primaries. States where fewer adults hold a college degree are almost all reliably red. States above that threshold are almost all reliably blue. It is, at this point, the single most reliable predictor of how a county votes. More reliable than income. More reliable than religion. More reliable, frankly, than common sense. And when the bill arrived, when $166 billion turned out to have been paid by American businesses and passed directly onto American families through higher prices on strollers, brake pads, and olive oil, these same voters did not pause for reflection. They went on social media and explained that actually, the deep state had rigged the Supreme Court. One in four Trump voters agreed that God had personally ordained his election victory.  Not metaphorically. Literally divinely appointed. This is the electorate that was asked to evaluate a 50-page trade policy and determine whether tariffs are paid by the exporter or the importer. They got it wrong, obviously. But here is the thing about Trump’s genius, and I use the word with the generosity I normally reserve for describing a broken lawnmower as “retro.” He did not need them to understand the policy. He needed them to feel it. And what they felt was that someone, finally, was sticking it to the foreigners. The details were irrelevant. The foreigners were laughing. He was going to make them stop. The foreigners are still laughing. The Americans paid $166 billion to fund that particular fantasy, and are now watching Walmart collect the refund. You really cannot make this up. Though apparently, you can make them vote for it. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

Pierre says he wants to “take taxes off groceries.” Here’s the problem: the supply of basic groceries, including most food marketed for human consumption, is already zero-rated — GST/HST is applied at 0%. Meat — including beef, poultry, pork, and lamb — is explicitly listed as zero-rated. The federal “grocery tax” Poilievre is campaigning on removing does not exist. It is currently zero. It has been zero since GST was introduced in 1991. The consumer carbon tax — which did apply indirectly through fuel and heating costs at the farm and processing level — was repealed in March 2025. Beef is up 13–14% since then. The policy he blamed is gone. The prices aren’t. So why is Canadian beef expensive while cheaper abroad? Despite being a major beef-producing nation, Canada consistently pays more than the United States. The reasons are structural: smaller market scale, higher transportation costs, and a retail landscape dominated by a few powerful grocers. Two companies — JBS and Cargill — dominate beef processing across North America, are both privately owned, and under no obligation to publish detailed financial results. That opacity leaves consumers, producers, and policymakers guessing at how much profit is being extracted from the system. The White House sued them for price-fixing. They settled quietly. Draw your own conclusions. Should Canada take similar action? Ranchers now receive less than 30 cents of every retail beef dollar — a historic low. Meanwhile packer profits have soared. The farmer isn’t getting rich. You’re getting gouged. The money is in the middle. Canadian beef is cheaper in the US because CAD trades at ~0.72 USD — that 28% discount is doing the work. Premium cuts ship to South Korea and Japan because foreign buyers outbid Canadians. Retail beef in Canada averages $25–26/kg. Imported beef entering Canada runs ~$15/kg. Export prices from Brazil and Argentina range $4–6 USD/kg. That gap is not a tax gap. It’s a structural concentration gap. “Take taxes off groceries” is a slogan targeting a tax that doesn’t exist, to solve a problem caused by entities named JBS, Cargill, Loblaw, Sobeys, and Metro. Sources: Canada Revenue Agency (Basic Groceries zero-rating policy) · Revenu Québec · Canadian Grocer/Charlebois, Dalhousie · Retail Insider/Agri-Food Analytics Lab Apr 2026 · Farm Action/USDA Packers & Stockyards Report

Poilievre’s grocery-affordability politics are a con. He talks like a populist enemy of concentrated corporate power, but when Parliament gets a chance to do anything concrete about concentrated grocery power, he votes the other way. He backed a vague motion about boosting grocery competition, then opposed real competition tools in Bill C-56 and opposed price-transparency and unit-pricing rules in Bill C-226 that the Competition Bureau itself says would help consumers and improve competition. That is not principle. That is theatre. He wants the anger of people at the checkout counter without supporting the rules that make dominant grocers compete harder for their business.

Spot on Jen! Poilievre’s grocery-affordability politics are a con. He talks like a populist enemy of concentrated corporate power, but when Parliament gets a chance to do anything concrete about concentrated grocery power, he votes the other way. He backed a vague motion about boosting grocery competition, then opposed real competition tools in Bill C-56 and opposed price-transparency and unit-pricing rules in Bill C-226 that the Competition Bureau itself says would help consumers and improve competition. That is not principle. That is theatre. He wants the anger of people at the checkout counter without supporting the rules that make dominant grocers compete harder for their business.

Poilievre complains almost daily about the Liberals raising prices on groceries. However, yesterday, he voted no on Bill-C226 to improve food price transparency. Conservatives are lying to you 😒

Wrong on the facts. The Reagan ad that blew up in October 2025 was an Ontario Conservative government ad, not a federal Liberal ad. And the claim of ‘zero outreach’ is nonsense: Carney met Trump in Washington, their teams were directed to keep working on trade, they spoke again on April 1, and Reuters has reported ongoing official-level contact. You can argue Ottawa’s strategy is good or bad, but claiming there’s been no outreach is bullshit.

Trump TERMINATED all Canada-US trade talks Oct 2025 after Liberals got caught running a fraudulent Reagan ad exposed by the Reagan Foundation itself. Six months later: Carney’s team hasn’t even picked up the phone. Zero outreach. Why? They’re deliberately torching our #1 trading relationship to keep the “Orange Man Bad” boogeyman alive and prop up Carney’s support. Sabotaging Canada’s economy for Liberal poll numbers. Insane. Suicidal.

John, two corrections. One: it's been 13 months, not 5. Carney became PM March 14, 2025. Two: "hasn't even tried" is measurable. Here's what 13 months looks like — met Trump in Washington October 2025 on steel/aluminum/energy, signed 20+ trade deals on four continents (Indonesia CEPA, UK DSR Bank, Canada-Mexico Action Plan, UAE FIPA, restored Chinese canola/lobster/crab access), maintained retaliatory tariffs on US steel/aluminum/autos specifically, passed Bill C-5 to kill interprovincial barriers, and delivered the LOWEST effective US tariff rate of any major trading partner at 2.4%, with 90% of Canadian goods crossing duty-free. For comparison: Japan paid $550B in US investment for a 15% tariff. Korea paid $350B plus $100B in forced energy purchases for 15%. EU committed $750B for 15%. Canada is at 2.4% with zero tribute. As for Pierre — if he has a plan to make Trump abandon a stated Section 232 national-security industrial strategy, he's had 13 months to publish it. He hasn't. That's not an assumption. That's the track record.

@PeterCunningham @PierrePoilievre How do you know Pierre couldn’t? You’re ASSuming..we all know carney hasn’t even tried , it’s been what 5 months?

Is this Mark Carney’s promised “rupture?” An entire industry leaving Windsor?

@TexasOperative @BBCWorld Kamala was never up 10. Final 2024 averages had her at +1. Trump won by 1.5. Polling error was 2-3 points — more accurate than 2016 or 2020. And the polls I cited weren't CNN. They were AP-NORC, Verasight, and Silver Bulletin, all showing the same trend. Have a good one.

@PeterCunningham @BBCWorld Oh. And fuck your CNN polls. More propaganda. They had Kamala winning g by like 10 points 🤡 You guys are dumbbbb and completely full of yourselves.

US 'won't dictate terms' of free trade talks, says PM Carney bbc.in/4vJFaYL

Receipts "30% economic approval" Washington Times, April 22, 2026, citing AP-NORC poll (April 16–20, 2026): Trump's economic approval rating fell to 30%, down from 38% in March and 39% in February. CNN/SSRS poll (April 1, 2026) had it at 31%. washingtontimes.com/news/2026/apr/… cnn.com/2026/04/01/pol… "-46 on inflation" Strength In Numbers / Verasight poll, April 10–14, 2026: Trump's net approval on prices and inflation fell to -46 (26% approve, 72% disapprove), the worst rating on any single issue in the poll's history. Worsened every month of 2026: -31 January, -35 February, -40 March, -46 April. gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-21-a… "73% of your own countrymen call the economy poor" AP-NORC poll, April 16–20, 2026: 73% of Americans now describe the economy as poor, up from 66% in February. apnorc.org/projects/fewer… "65% say Trump made it worse — higher than Biden's worst number" CNN/SSRS poll, April 1, 2026: 65% say Trump's policies have made the economy worse — "the highest of his presidency, higher than the share who said the same about Democrat Joe Biden's policies at any point during his time in office." cnn.com/2026/04/01/pol… "Manufacturing shed 77,000 jobs in 2025" Center for American Progress, January 20, 2026: "Despite the Trump administration's claims that the tariffs would bolster American manufacturing in 2025, the manufacturing industry lost 77,000 jobs from April to December 2025." americanprogress.org/article/a-year… "ACA premiums up 114%" Same CAP report, citing expiration of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025: "For 2026, net premium payments were expected to increase 114 percent from the year prior." americanprogress.org/article/a-year… "SCOTUS struck down the IEEPA tariffs 6-3" Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, argued November 5, 2025, decided February 20, 2026. Tax Foundation: "On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs." supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf… taxfoundation.org/research/all/f… hklaw.com/en/insights/pu… "Democrats +7 on the generic ballot for 11 straight months" Strength In Numbers / Verasight, April 2026: Democrats lead by 7 points on generic ballot; across 11 monthly polls (December 2025 skipped), Democrats have never trailed, with margins between +5 and +10. gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-21-a…

@PeterCunningham @BBCWorld That’s some really nice propaganda you’re getting over there. Wanna see reality? 🤡

Enjoy your $4 gas, 114% ACA hikes, -46 inflation approval, and the $166B in tariff refunds your Treasury now owes. American consumers paid the tariffs, and now American taxpayers are paying the refunds to importers. So much winning. We'll be fine at 2.4% effective tariff rate until the new house and senate neuter Trump. 30% economic approval. -46 on inflation. 73% of your own countrymen call the economy poor. 65% say Trump made it worse — higher than Biden's worst number. Manufacturing shed 77,000 jobs in 2025, the sector tariffs were supposed to save. ACA premiums up 114%. SCOTUS struck down the IEEPA tariffs 6-3. Democrats +7 on the generic ballot for 11 straight months.

@PeterCunningham @BBCWorld You still got Trump to deal with for 3 more years. Canada is fucked!!!! Bring on more Canadian tariffs!!!!!!

30% economic approval. -46 on inflation. 73% of your own countrymen call the economy poor. 65% say Trump made it worse — higher than Biden's worst number. Manufacturing shed 77,000 jobs in 2025, the sector tariffs were supposed to save. ACA premiums up 114%. SCOTUS struck down the IEEPA tariffs 6-3. Democrats +7 on the generic ballot for 11 straight months. Meanwhile Canada pays a 2.4% effective tariff rate — the lowest of any major US trading partner. You're not fine. You're just loud.

@PeterCunningham @BBCWorld The midterms aren’t going to save you. Even if the Democrats win, Trump will veto anything they try to put forward. But by all means don’t rush. Stay there and go broke. We’re fine here.

Three facts: (1) Canada has the LOWEST effective US tariff rate of any major trading partner — about 2.4-2.9%. ~90% of Canadian goods enter duty-free under USMCA. Carney himself said it: "Canada currently has the best trade deal with the United States... better than that of any other country." (2) Mexico didn't "move on." Mexico pays 25% on non-USMCA goods, 50% on steel/aluminum/copper, 25% on autos. Their "deal" is a 90-day pause that got rolled over. Canada is ahead of Mexico on every metric. (3) The "deals" other countries signed aren't what you think. Japan: 15% tariff PLUS $550B in US investment with Trump keeping 90% of profits. South Korea: 15% tariff plus $350B in US-controlled investments plus $100B in mandatory energy purchases. EU: 15% tariff plus $750B energy purchase. Switzerland/Liechtenstein: $200B+ in investment commitments. That's not trade negotiation — that's tribute. And the scoreboard: Trump promised 200 deals. After 15 months he has 19 closed agreements — Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Taiwan, Ecuador, El Salvador, EU, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, North Macedonia, South Korea, Thailand, Switzerland/Liechtenstein, UK, Vietnam. Roughly 170 countries that trade with the US have no deal. Canada is in that group and still pays less than all 19 who signed. Canada's diversification: Indonesia (full CEPA, largest SE Asian economy, 280M people), China (canola/lobster/crab tariffs removed), UK (DSR Bank), UAE, India (relaunched), Mercosur, ASEAN ($270B market). Luxembourg isn't a deal — EU trade is CETA, in force since 2017. lol

@PeterCunningham @BBCWorld So why did other countries already make deals and move on like Mexico and Japan? Meanwhile Canada has signed deals with the powerhouses of Indonesia and Luxembourg lol

If the Canadian economy "leans on" the American one, then why aren't the Americans thrilled by our attempts to diversify our trading partners? 🧐

My homework is sound. Feb 1, 2025 the original Canada tariff was IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Executive Order 14193 imposed 25% on most Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy, citing the imaginary fentanyl/illegal-alien "national emergency". Trump soon TACO'd the energy tariff, because guess who pays? Feb 20, 2026 the Supreme Court rule that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating both the Canada tariffs and the Liberation Day tariffs. Trump responded by proclaiming new tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Section 122 caps tariffs at 15% and can only run 150 days without Congressional extension. Is this the homework you're referring to? Mid-terms will change congress in 6.4 months. And unlike the present Congress, they won't sit tight-lipped about Trump's abuse of executive powers. Apr 20, 2026 after ranting at SCOTUS the admin began issuing $166 Billion in refunds. Canada was wise to wait.

@PeterCunningham @JakeSmi98786992 @BBCWorld Actually, Trump used another method to Tariff Canada instead of the emergencies act. Do your homework Peter.

1. The December 2025 sanctions lift was on Belarus, not Russia, and industry analysts (Rabobank, S&P Global) said it doesn't meaningfully change global supply. 2. The US imports 95% of its potash — Canadian volume (7+ Mt/year) is roughly 5x what all offshore suppliers combined can ship. Russia supplies only ~11% of US potash. Canada supplies 79-85%. US farmers forced Trump to exempt Canadian potash from tariffs because no replacement exists. "Without America's help" gets it backwards: the US is dependent on Canadian potash, not the reverse. I get that Trump loves Russia because, well, Epstein.

@PeterCunningham @JamesWitmer6 @BBCWorld Trump is in trade talks behind the scenes with Russia for Potash and other mineral rights, so Canada can be replaced. Canada's GDP will fall even further without America's help.

Nobody in leadership said America is the enemy. Carney said reliance on a partner that imposes Depression-era tariffs and talks openly about annexing us is a weakness — and he's right. The response is diversification, not hostility. 20 deals signed on four continents in under a year. China restored canola, lobster, crab and pea access last month. Canada has what the world wants. That's not enmity. That's a customer finding new customers.

@JerryBones8 @PeterCunningham @JamesWitmer6 @BBCWorld Tell that to Carney, we are the enemy right?

This is one-dimensional thinking. Without agreements America will sell less to Canada, and to the world. Under NAFTA Trade and market access. Trilateral goods and services trade tripled from around $290B in 1993 to roughly $1.2T by 2017. Canada and Mexico became the #1 and #2 export markets for US goods, absorbing about a third of all US merchandise exports. US agricultural exports to Mexico grew from ~$4B to ~$20B, with corn, soy, pork, and dairy the biggest winners. The US ran persistent services surpluses with both partners. Supply chain integration. This was probably the largest structural benefit. NAFTA knitted together a continental production system — most visibly in autos, aerospace, electronics, and medical devices — where components cross borders multiple times before final assembly. US content embedded in Mexican exports runs around 40%, vs. ~4% for Chinese exports. This made "Factory North America" cost-competitive against Asia in a way neither country could have managed alone, and it preserved high-value design, engineering, and capital-goods production in the US while offshoring the labor-intensive stages only as far as Mexico. Energy. Preferential, tariff-free access to Canadian crude and gas — Canada became the largest single source of US energy imports and remains so. Proportional-sharing clauses (which Canada disliked and got removed in USMCA) locked in US energy security during a period when that mattered. Consumer welfare. Lower prices on vehicles, produce, appliances, apparel, and electronics. Year-round availability of Mexican fruits and vegetables reshaped US grocery categories. Estimated consumer gains ran a few hundred dollars per household annually — small individually, large in aggregate. Investment returns. US FDI into Mexico grew from ~$15B to ~$110B. Returns on that capital flowed back to US shareholders and pension funds. US multinationals used Mexican operations to defend global market share. Yes there were costs in some regions. Manufacturing job losses concentrated in the Rust Belt and Southeast — credible estimates range from ~400K to ~800K net jobs displaced, mostly in auto parts, textiles, apparel, and furniture. Wage pressure on non-college workers in tradeable sectors. The US goods deficit with Mexico went from roughly balanced to ~$70B+. These losses were geographically concentrated enough to drive durable political backlash — the Autor/Dorn/Hanson "China shock" work later showed the same pattern for Chinese imports, but NAFTA arrived first and took the rhetorical hits. Strategic benefit often underweighted. NAFTA anchored Mexico's market reforms, supported its democratic transition through the 2000s, and created leverage over Canadian and Mexican policy that the US spent two years reasserting in USMCA. The fact that Trump's renegotiation produced an agreement that is ~90% identical to NAFTA tells you something about how much of the framework Washington actually wanted to keep.

@JerryBones8 @PeterCunningham @JamesWitmer6 @BBCWorld I lived through it Jerry... We lost millions of jobs in the U.S. . Our jobs went to China, Mexico and Canada. NAFTA fucked us. Our Auto industry died. Our steel industry died. Our manufacturing industry died!! Whole towns in the U.S. turned into Ghost towns.

@MarcMorvan @BBCWorld PP seems immune to strategy, just slogans. I’m grateful he’s not in charge right now

@PeterCunningham @BBCWorld Can you explain this to Pierre and his band of retards?

According to Howard Lutnick, the economic strategy of Canada, one of our greatest allies, “sucks.” These childish insults do nothing except hurt small businesses in New Hampshire—many of whom rely on Canadian exports and tourism.