Stranger Capital

Did something today I told myself not do again. Bought 10% OTM puts on S&P at the close. 4% of my portfolio. Godspeed.

@resourcebull @RealCalvin1 Literally been thinking of doing the same thing.

@RealCalvin1 I’m so getting a Blu Ray and hitting garage sales

Streaming was a mistake.

@account_blown @TheLincoln Love this book so much

@TheLincoln Add in this for the trifecta

You could build an interesting class around these two books as textbooks.

@StrangerCapital nice

just peeled a hard boiled egg

@iheartstonks Im a 7min 30sec guy

@iheartstonks Gotta time it perfectly, put it in ice water, tap all around with back of spoon

Major oil spill halts operations at Belgium's Port of Antwerp v.aa.com.tr/3901082

My dream is to sit in the helipad of a drillship at 5am, chainsmoking a pack of reds, downing some yuenglings, and observing as far as the eye can see. How do I convince my analyst to use his travel budget for this important cause?

Being retarded about how oil prices actually work is probably the biggest bipartisan issue

@iheartstonks When you say thank you, it builds more accurate depletion models for your kurdistan e&ps, this is not a joke I am so srs rn

in the future when ai is running everything it will remember the people who said please and thank you

@BlueDuckCap Banger

Howard Marks with a memo on Private Credit. Let me guess his view: it might be bad. It might not be that bad. We don't know. I only buy stuff every 10 years.

@TheStarkCapital Yup, and the screening is also worse. Its just a counterintuitive platform thats costs more in dollars and quality/speed/accessibility of data

@StrangerCapital Excel formulas being more intuitive is literally the only advantage vs BBG Even pricing, when it’s single digit terminals + some of the add ons ends up being more expensive than BBG who can do all of it and more

Anyone else find that Factset is absolute dogwater for equity research? Constantly glitching in my excel workbooks (e.g., randomly uncopy/uncut cells i have on my clipboard), API is total mess/too many options for single line item categories, mobile is useless, etc

@TheStarkCapital It's fucking awful.

@StrangerCapital Regardless of AI debate FDS is a zero cuz it’s shit

@jeremie0117 Honestly, not sure how to interpret. Whats driving the growth in equity tapping for homeowners? Is the pullback in CC debt growth from people tightness or restraint? Curious your thoughts.

@StrangerCapital Yeah really

U.S. Debt Growth Change. Consumer Balance Sheets. Interesting data from Evercore.

@nocalledstrikes @WaterworldCapi1 I don't disagree the valuation isnt attactive, even not adjusting for SBC youre looking at a 4-5% FCF yield

@StrangerCapital @WaterworldCapi1 As I said, valuation isnt cheap when adj for SBC. They need to spend $450-$500mm this year to keep the share count flat. Adjusting for this the stock is trading at a ~1% FCF yield (or ~2% adj for inflated capex in '26). For a MSD% grower, not exciting.

@nocalledstrikes @WaterworldCapi1 If you're concerned with SBC, and theres no dilution, then whats the concern?

@StrangerCapital @WaterworldCapi1 SBC as % of rev aint coming down (ask mgmt)

@nocalledstrikes @WaterworldCapi1 And are likely to keep coming down***

@nocalledstrikes @WaterworldCapi1 Buybacks have offset SBC. Just have to think about net dilution in the future, and based on last 10 years, dil share counts have only come down.