@TheMarketRaven Dangit so I guess we’ll never see a discord called “The Nest” lol
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Trylanol
827 posts
Trylanol
@Trylanol
Just a guy trying to make money off the stock market
शामिल हुए Ekim 2025
35 फ़ॉलोइंग38 फ़ॉलोवर्स
I thought about this while actually LIVING MY LIFE.
Signs your furu hasn’t been around long enough:
They brag about exact “levels” instead of understanding algos react to zones, liquidity and reactions.
They suddenly flex cars, watches and lifestyles right after launching a Discord/Service.
They take credit for every winning trade subscribers make, but disappear when the bad calls hit.
They spend every weekend glued to stock talk instead of having an actual life outside the market.
They claim they “change lives daily” while their own life only changed after selling subscriptions.
Most have less than 5 years in the game, yet talk like market wizards that can predict every move.
Dont get cucked!
I’ll never be those things.
I’ve been in the market 20+ years and I’m still learning, still adapting, and still following smart money when I see it.
And Yes I'm still wrong! I'm not afraid to own it!
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@TheMarketRaven Didn’t even realize you were back today. Welcome back!
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Setting the bar now.
I'm not coming back to post plays if you cant engage. Just how it will be.
250x ❤️ unlocks my trades today. 30 mins to do it.
If cucks can get 500 likes for picking random price targets out of their ass, I can get half just for being good & free.
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Ding ding $800 on Deck, much higher 🚀
$MU $SNDK $DRAM
Seer@seer_xyz
$MU nearing that $800 level in Hyperliquid , send it $DRAM $SNDK $WDC
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People spent their entire Monday watching the Frankfurt / Stockholm Exchange yesterday, hoping to cash in on gains today.
Only to find out their stock is down -10% pre-market now..
Enjoy life and touch grass when the stock market is not open in the US. It’s not worth watching GETTEX
$SIVE
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Trylanol रीट्वीट किया
Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:
1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.
The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:
Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.
If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years.
As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source.
As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production.
But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years.
You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers.
That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics.
It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it.
But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power.
Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs.
2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes.
You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures.
That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over.
There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers.
If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures.
All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers.
If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you?
Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players.
3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this:
$SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027.
It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027.
$AEHR which volume ramps after qualification.
$LPK that volume ramps after qualification.
This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently.
As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year):
$LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components.
This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO:
People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections.
This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company.
Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward.
Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion.
It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs.
I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14.
Now it's $140
I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30".
Now it's $170
I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45.
Now it's $170.
I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year.
And now I'm long on $SIVE.
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On a serious note, go open an IBKR account, throw $500 bucks into $SIVE and delete the app. Check back in a year or two.
$QQQ $SPY
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index. This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M. We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM.
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@Veganhippo21 Wow 0DTE and ATM. That’s some bullish conviction! I sold some longer dated and OTM lol
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@TheMarketRaven Hey hey! Going on a family beach trip this weekend. Hope you have some fun things lined up too!
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Good morning! Looks like I slept in. Anyone doing anything fun this weekend?
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Seer TA > Gamma
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
Seer@seer_xyz
Conflict here cuz chart tells me lower, but gamma levels say higher. We will see $SPX $SPY $QQQ
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