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White House confirms more US-Iran peace deal talks are actively being discussed, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. That disconnect is the real story. Trump tied the ceasefire to the strait reopening, but ships still aren't moving freely. Whether these talks produce anything concrete or just more headlines is the question the oil market is pricing in right now.

Taiwan's benchmark stock index closed at a record high of 37,019.87, gaining as much as 2% on the session. The move tracks broader Asia optimism around potential U.S.-Iran deal progress and easing oil price pressure. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the index heavyweight, has been a major driver of gains as tech sentiment improves globally.

The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. has now intercepted eight Iran-linked oil tankers since the blockade began, up from the six merchant ships that were turned back as of Wednesday. The pace of seizures is accelerating. This is no longer just a show of force at the strait entrance. The Navy is actively pulling Iranian-linked vessels out of circulation across a wider area, which raises the stakes on any deal timeline significantly.

The S&P 500 is closing in on all-time highs as Iran deal optimism lifts sentiment, but the rally has a real ceiling. Talks between the U.S. and Iran are progressing, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains the sticking point. Both sides are still far apart on whether Iran retains any right to restrict access, and that unresolved question is keeping traders cautious about how durable this move really is. The index has clawed back a massive chunk of its April losses. Whether it breaks through to a new record depends heavily on what comes out of the next round of negotiations.

Trump just told Fox News that U.S. military operations against Iran are still ongoing and "not done yet." That directly walks back the deal optimism that has been driving markets higher all day. Oil was already pulling back on ceasefire speculation. This changes the tone fast.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is warning that a war with Iran could trigger supply shocks and push inflation higher. Coming from someone who spent years managing the post-COVID inflation surge, that warning carries weight. Energy prices, shipping costs, and global supply chains all run through chokepoints that a wider conflict would put directly at risk.

Stephen Miller says Iran is in a "difficult position" as nuclear talks continue. This tracks with the broader White House posture heading into negotiations. Miller's framing suggests the administration believes its military and economic pressure campaign is working, and that the U.S. holds the stronger hand at the table right now.

Existing home sales dropped to their lowest level since June 2024 in March, falling 3.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units. That is the second largest monthly decline since November 2022, and it is happening right as the spring selling season is supposed to be picking up. High mortgage rates are keeping would-be sellers locked in place and buyers on the sidelines, and there is no obvious catalyst to change that dynamic in the near term.

South Korea's incoming Bank of Korea governor is already signaling a hawkish lean before he even takes the job. Governor nominee Shin says inflation in South Korea is likely to accelerate, which complicates the rate cut path the market had been pricing in. The won and Korean bond yields will be worth watching when Asia trading picks up.

Trump says Iran is strongly interested in making a deal, according to a new Fox News interview. This is a notable shift in tone from what Vance said earlier about deep mistrust between the two sides. If Trump is reading Iran's posture as deal-hungry, that likely means back-channel signals are more positive than the public messaging has let on.

Oil pulled back Wednesday evening on reports that the U.S. and Iran may be heading back to the negotiating table, per the WSJ. This is a notable shift in tone after a chaotic 24 hours that included a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and six merchant ships being physically turned away. If talks resume, the pressure on crude could continue to ease.

Trump is now claiming credit for preventing Iran from going nuclear, telling Fox News that without his intervention, Tehran would already have a weapon. This comes as the US is actively blockading the Strait of Hormuz and direct negotiations with Iran are ongoing. Trump framing himself as the reason Iran hasn't crossed the nuclear threshold is part of his broader pressure campaign, and it signals he sees the current standoff as a moment of maximum leverage.

The Iran blockade is now 24 hours old and not a single ship has passed through, according to the Wall Street Journal. That is a complete halt to traffic in one of the world's busiest shipping corridors. The longer this holds, the more pressure builds on global supply chains and energy markets when they open tomorrow.

Japan is extending the release of its private oil reserves for another month, according to TV Asahi. This comes as global energy markets remain on edge over the Iran situation. Japan is one of the world's largest oil importers, and prolonging reserve releases signals Tokyo is serious about keeping domestic supply stable while the Strait of Hormuz standoff plays out.

The US has physically turned back six merchant ships trying to leave the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Washington Post. This is no longer just a naval interception story. A full blockade posture in the world's most critical oil chokepoint is a serious escalation. Expect this to hit oil futures and shipping stocks hard when markets open tomorrow.

Gold moved higher Wednesday as the dollar softened and falling oil prices eased concerns about a resurgence in inflation. With oil pulling back on Iran deal optimism, one of the main arguments for persistent inflation is getting quieter. That gives gold room to move on its safe haven appeal without the headwind of rising real yields.

U.S. Navy destroyer intercepts two Iranian oil tankers leaving Chabahar port and orders them to turn back, per Reuters. This is a direct escalation in the Persian Gulf at the exact moment nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran are still active. The timing could not be more complicated for diplomats on both sides trying to reach a deal.

Asia markets are extending gains into the session as Iran deal optimism keeps oil prices under pressure. This is a continuation of the same trade that drove Wall Street higher on Tuesday. Lower oil is feeding through to transport stocks, manufacturing, and consumer names across the region. The Nikkei and Hang Seng are both holding solid gains early in the Thursday session.

Asia markets are holding their gains as the session gets underway, tracking Wall Street's overnight rally with oil prices continuing to slide on U.S.-Iran deal optimism. The through-line here is that lower oil prices are doing a lot of heavy lifting across global markets right now. Airlines, shipping, and consumer-facing sectors across the region stand to benefit if crude stays suppressed while diplomacy plays out.

The US job market looks a lot weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Since January 2024, healthcare and social assistance has added 1.7 million jobs. Every other industry combined has shed 56,000 over that same stretch. Strip out healthcare and the labor market has been essentially flat for well over a year. That context matters a lot when the Fed is leaning on "labor market resilience" as a reason to stay patient on rate cuts.

Asian markets followed through on that open-higher setup, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Sensex all posting cautious gains as oil prices eased on US-Iran talk optimism. The recovery is real but guarded. Traders are not fully buying into a resolution yet, and Hormuz uncertainty is keeping a ceiling on how far risk appetite can stretch. Vance already flagged earlier today that deep mistrust between the two sides makes a quick deal unlikely, and that skepticism is showing up in how these markets are trading.