Andrew Millard

We're thrilled to announce our outstanding performance in the @worlduniranking 2026🏆🎓🥳 3 subjects in the top 10 10 subjects in the top 50 22 subjects in the top 100 in their field Read more👉 brnw.ch/21x12aL #QSWUR #BestUniversities #UniLife

Modern human presence in eastern Asia before 130 ka: evidence from U-series re-dating of Daoxian site sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

How likely is ‘likely’? Does ‘likely’ have a higher probability than ‘probable’? I put together a quick quiz so you can see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with others: probability.kucharski.io There are some nice illustrative datasets out there on human perceptions of probability-based phrases, collected via online polls etc, but all are relatively small (i.e. the biggest only available one I could find is just over a hundred people). Datasets typically also focus on absolute estimates (e.g. what probability corresponds to ‘likely’?), rather than comparative judgements (e.g. does ‘likely’ or ‘probable’ have a higher probability?) So I thought it would be fun to run a larger survey that includes both absolute and comparative judgements, and allows participants to see where they sit on the distribution – do you perceive probabilities differently to others? It only takes a couple of minutes to complete, and please share so others can join in!