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Why Restore Britain Cannot Win Makerfield: To beat Burnham, you need ~40%. May locals: Reform 50%, Labour 26%, Restore 0%. Restore can only realistically take votes from Reform. Even switching 20% of Reform voters only gets them ~10%. This is very unlikely as there will not be that many Reform voters switch knowing Burnham could win as a result. A more reasonable (but still unlikely) 10% switch = ~5% Non-voters? Mobilising them doesn’t hurt Labour/Reform directly. Getting 20% of non-voters to back them would be near impossible — and still not enough! Best-case fantasy scenario: 20% Reform switch (+10%) + 20% of non-voters (+11%) = ~21% max. Whilst this would be a very good result for them it is still ~20% short of winning - and that is a fantasy scenario! What does this mean? Restore isn’t a contender - it’s a splitter. The fight is Reform vs Labour. Back @RobKenyonReform and save Britain 🩵 🇬🇧 @LeeAndersonMP_ @GoodwinMJ #restore #reform #Lowe #makerfield



