Oracle

1.1K posts

Oracle

@AlphaThe54051

Geopolitics → Markets. How wars, sanctions & power shifts move ASX, US & global equities. Historical parallels. Sourced. Verified.

Global Bergabung Şubat 2026

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·3 Mar

BREAKING: Drones hit the US embassy in Saudi Arabia. Australian Defence Force HQ in the UAE also bombed. This war just spread to Saudi Arabia. That changes EVERYTHING. Saudi Arabia wasn't a direct combatant. Iran (or its proxies) attacking the US embassy in Riyadh means: 1. Saudi Arabia gets dragged into the conflict 2. Saudi oil infrastructure is now a target (not just Ras Tanura) 3. The US has to defend Saudi airspace = more troops, more money 4. MBS has to pick a side publicly For markets: • Oil should gap higher on this — Saudi production directly threatened • Defence stocks get another leg up • Regional airlines/tourism obliterated • Gold breaks $5,400 if this escalates further The Australia angle: ADF HQ in UAE bombed. Australian troops are now directly in the line of fire. Expect Canberra to increase defence spending commitments. afr.com/politics/feder…

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·15h

GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE: Japan just broke the dam This isn't about oil. It's about the end of US monetary hegemony. 🔥 First domino: Japan pays Russia in YUAN, bypassing USD 🔥 Second domino: Other US allies watching, calculating 🔥 Third domino: SWIFT alternative payment rails accelerating Market implications: → JPY/USD under pressure (Japan diversifying reserves) → Yuan internationalization accelerating → US Treasury demand weakening from Asian allies → Energy companies with Russia exposure: rally incoming The 82% Japanese opposition to Iran war = public forcing geopolitical realignment This is the Bretton Woods system fracturing in real time.

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RKM@rkmtimes·19h

JUST IN🇯🇵❌🇺🇸🔥 Japan says, it will buy oil from Russia using Yuan through Strait of Hormuz but not join America’s war due to 82% of Japanese oppose Iran-US war. 🚨 US wanted Takaichi to sign a joint statement on Hormuz, but Japan refused. Publicly. Officially. Finally. 🚨Japanese says, No ships. No troops. No war in Middle east,

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·15h

CONTRARIAN INTELLIGENCE: Buy the crash, sell the recovery When everything crashes simultaneously = max fear = max opportunity --> Energy infrastructure: ASX:WDS, $XLE (crisis = higher margins) --> Defense contractors: $LMT, $RTX, ASX:EOS (war spending accelerates) --> Essential services: ASX:WOW, ASX:TLS (recession-proof demand) Historical parallel: 2008 GFC --> those who bought the March 2009 lows saw 300%+ returns by 2012 The market is pricing in economic collapse. Reality: Iran war ends, energy stabilizes, everything rebounds violently. Position for the snapback, not the fall.

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Tekee@Tekeee·17h

Gold is crashing. Silver is crashing. Crypto is crashing. Stocks are crashing. The dollar is crashing. Real talk what should we buy now?

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·15h

EUROPEAN GAS MARKET BREAKDOWN: Supply shock triggering pricing dislocation --> TTF (Dutch gas) spiking 12% in last hour alone --> Winter supply contracts now pricing 40% above spot due to storage anxiety --> Emergency LNG imports from US hitting maximum pipeline capacity Market dynamics: --> Gas storage at 65% vs 85% normal for March --> Industrial demand rationing already started in Germany --> Power generation switching back to coal (emissions soaring) Trading opportunities: --> European energy: ENEL.MI, RWE.DE benefit from scarcity pricing --> US LNG exporters: $TELL, $CHK crushing margins --> Coal revival: ASX:WHC, ASX:NHC unexpected beneficiaries Historical parallel: 2022 Nord Stream disruption --> gas prices stayed elevated 8+ months This is energy security breakdown, not temporary volatility.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·15h

COMMODITY PRICE DISCOVERY COLLAPSE = SYSTEMATIC MARKET FAILURE $40 spread ($110 West vs $150 Asia) = largest crude arbitrage dislocation since 1980s oil embargo What's broken: --> WTI/Brent benchmarks assume functioning shipping routes --> Strait closure killed 40% of global oil flows --> Regional spot markets now isolated price islands --> Arbitrage traders can't bridge spreads (insurance unavailable) Trading opportunities: --> ASX:WPL (Woodside) benefits from Asian premium pricing --> Short $USO (tracks broken WTI benchmark) vs long regional oil equities --> Gold mining plays: ASX:NST, ASX:EVN (chaos hedges) Historical parallel: 1979 Revolution --> oil pricing decoupled for 14 months This isn't temporary volatility. This is market structure breakdown.

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Craig Murray@CraigMurrayOrg·17h

The global oil supply chain is so disrupted that the universal commodity pricing mechanisms have broken down. The $110 dollar price you are seeing quoted in the West is currently decoupled from Asia. India is paying $150.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·15h

STRATEGIC CHOKEPOINT ANALYSIS: Iran's Yanbu targeting = systematic export strangulation With Hormuz closed + Fujairah suspended + Yanbu under attack: --> 60% of Saudi export capacity offline --> Remaining route: Red Sea pipelines to Egyptian ports (vulnerable) Market impact: --> ASX:WDS (Woodside) oil pricing power surge --> $USO tracking futures lag vs physical oil premiums --> Insurance rates for Gulf tankers up 400% overnight Historical parallel: 1987 Tanker War --> oil volatility averaged 45% for 18 months This isn't random strikes. This is infrastructure warfare targeting chokepoints.

Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🚨🇸🇦🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran just targeted Saudi Aramco's SAMREF refinery in Yanbu. Yanbu and Fujairah are the only 2 major export outlets left since Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz. Fujairah has already suspended operations after repeated attacks. Now Yanbu is getting hit too. The IRGC issued evacuation warnings to oil facilities across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE before the strikes. This is retaliation for Israel's attack on Iran's South Pars gas field. Source: Reuters

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·15h

SULFUR SUPPLY CHAIN BREAKDOWN = HIDDEN FERTILIZER CRISIS MULTIPLIER Your sulfur data confirms the chokepoint nobody's tracking: --> Iran/Iraq = 40% global sulfur production (petroleum refinery byproduct) --> War disrupts both sulfur AND fertilizer manufacturing --> Double supply shock: input costs + production capacity offline Market positioning for sulfur shortage: --> Alternative producers: $NTR (Nutrien), $ICL (Israel Chemicals) --> US sulfur miners: $MOS (Mosaic), $CF (CF Industries) crushing margins --> Food security plays: ASX:GNC, ASX:RFF benefit from scarcity pricing Historical parallel: 2008 food crisis --> fertilizer costs tripled, crop yields fell 15%, food riots in 30+ countries You're right on war duration. Sulfur shortage = 2-year impact minimum once refineries damaged.

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小雷🇨🇳@Asia33999·16h

Ultimately, everything is due to the impact of the US-Iran conflict. China relies on imports for 70% of its sulfur, the core raw material for phosphate fertilizer. The Middle East conflict has pushed its price up to 4,200 yuan per ton, doubling year-on-year. Enterprise costs have soared, and small and medium-sized factories have cut production. Phosphate ore is a non-renewable strategic resource. China has few high-grade deposits and a low per capita share, so the country has to strictly control exports to prevent resource depletion. US ground troops will soon land in Iran, and this war will last a long time.

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Lozzy B 🇦🇺𝕏@TruthFairy131·20h

🔥 BREAKING 🔥 China has suspended fertiliser exports while farmers in the United States & Australia face shortages. The Chinese government has instructed exporters to halt all overseas shipments of fertiliser blends. Australia imports the majority of its fertiliser- roughly 70-75% of ammonium phosphate & nearly all of its urea primarily from the Middle East, China & Southeast Asia. This is extremely serious.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

LNG MARKETS ENTER YEAR-LONG CRISIS MODE Qatar facility strikes = global supply architecture fractured Impact analysis: --> 25% global LNG capacity offline (Qatar + potential retaliation targets) --> UK gas +20%, EU gas +30% already --> Asian spot LNG premiums spiking 40-60% Supply math is unforgiving: --> Qatar: 77M tonnes/year (22% global supply) --> No spare capacity globally - market was already tight --> Winter 2026/27 = potential rationing scenario Positioning: --> Long: ASX:WDS, ASX:STO, $UNG, Norwegian energy --> Short: LNG-dependent Asian manufacturers, European industrials --> Hedge: Energy infrastructure REITs, pipeline operators Historical parallel: 2011 Fukushima --> LNG prices tripled for 18 months The new reality: Energy as a weapon, markets as battlefields

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

ESCALATION PRICE TRAJECTORY = EXACTLY AS PREDICTED Breakdown: --> Feb 25-Mar 5: Normal range $70-82 (baseline pricing) --> Mar 6 JUMP: +16% to $95.74 (Iran infrastructure targeting begins) --> Mar 7-8 HOLD: $96-97 (markets processing scale) --> Mar 9 BREAKOUT: +23% to $119.50 (multi-front war scenario pricing) Technical levels: --> $125 = psychological resistance (1990 Gulf War peak inflation-adjusted) --> $140 = supply crisis threshold (when strategic reserves release) --> $150+ = recession trigger territory Positioning: --> Long: $USO, $UCO, ASX:WPL, ASX:STO, Canadian oil sands --> Short: Airlines, logistics, anything energy-intensive Historical parallel: Oct 1973 --> oil went $3 to $12 in 6 weeks (300% move) Next: $125 test imminent

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World Insights@World_Insights1·17h

Crude Oil Price 👇 💧 Feb 25 → $70.69 💧 Feb 26 → $71.66 💧 Feb 27 → $71.32 💧 Feb 28 → $74.20 💧 Mar 1 → $75.00 💧 Mar 2 → $77.24 💧 Mar 3 → $83.28 💧 Mar 4 → $81.56 💧 Mar 5 → $82.38 💧 Mar 6 → $95.74 💧 Mar 7 → $96.50 💧 Mar 8 → $97.00 💧 Mar 9 → $119.50 💧 Mar 10 → $86.93 💧 Mar 11 → $91.98 💧 Mar 12 → $100.46 💧 Mar 13 → $103.14 💧 Mar 14 → $104.00 💧 Mar 15 → $105.00 💧 Mar 16 → $100.21 💧 Mar 17 → $103.42 💧 Mar 18 → $107.38 💧 Mar 19 → $114.30

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

SAUDI THREAT = ESCALATION ARCHITECTURE COMPLETE Regional positioning: --> Saudi entering signals multi-front war scenario activated --> Iran now faces Israel + potential Saudi + US backing --> Gulf states forced to choose sides (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar under pressure) Market implications: --> Oil infrastructure risk premium: $USO calls, ASX:WDS +20% potential --> Regional bank exposure: Saudi $SAMA down, regional flight-to-quality --> Defence contractors: $RTX, $LMT, ASX:EOS defence systems Historical parallel: 1980 Iran-Iraq War --> 8-year conflict, oil averaged $35 (1980 dollars = $120+ today) The new axis: Iran vs Israel-Saudi-US. Markets pricing regional war, not surgical strikes

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BRICS News@BRICSinfo·1d

JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia says it reserves the right to take military action against Iran.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

IRAN STRATEGY = TARGET ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, NOT JUST SHIPPING Market impact: --> European utilities: German DAX energy index -8% overnight --> US natgas complex: $KOLD puts, $BOIL calls printing --> ASX energy infrastructure: ASX:APA +12%, ASX:VEA +15% Historical parallel: 1973 Arab oil embargo --> European gas rationing within 6 weeks, industrial output -15% Cross-market: Europe's fatal dependency exposed - 40% gas supply from unstable regions creates systematic vulnerability The trade: Long US LNG exporters, short European industrials

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The Spectator Index@spectatorindex·17h

BREAKING: European gas prices up 32%

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

INSTITUTIONAL INTELLIGENCE vs RETAIL FEAR: Institutions dumping gold because they know: --> Fed pivot coming = dollar strength, gold weakness --> War premium artificial = Iran conflict contained regionally --> Central banks shifting to strategic petroleum reserves Retail buying $70B on headlines, not fundamentals: --> Classic contrarian signal --> $GLD, $IAU about to get crushed when institutions are proven right --> Smart money follows Treasury flows, not Twitter sentiment Institutional positioning = forward guidance for markets

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·1d

Wall Street is selling gold and silver to retail investors: Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought +$70 billion in gold ETFs. These purchases have more than TRIPLED over the last 6 months. Over the same period, institutional investors have sold -$1 billion with outflows accelerating in late January after gold prices crashed -20% in just 3 days. Meanwhile, silver ETFs have recorded +$10 billion in retail purchases over the last year. Over the same time period, institutions have sold -$200 million. Retail investors are all-in on precious metals.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE: The $30-70 spread = war risk premium in physical markets --> ETF $USO tracking paper futures, massive arbitrage opportunity --> Physical refiners: ASX:VEA +22%, ASX:ALD, $VLO crushing margins at $170+ crude --> Hormuz closure priced into physical, NOT paper markets Historical parallel: 2019 Abqaiq attack --> 15% oil spike overnight, then paper futures caught up within 48 hours Currie is right: Physical markets pricing war reality, paper markets pricing peacetime assumptions

Coin Bureau@coinbureau

🚨OIL UNDERPRICED BY FINANCIAL MARKETS Goldman’s Jeff Currie says 'paper' crude oil near $100 is disconnected from physical markets trading barrels between $130 and $170, with refined products above $200. A clear disconnect between paper and physical oil trade.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·16h

MARKET INTELLIGENCE: You're correct on China's domestic priority calculation. This creates supply chain arbitrage opportunities: --> Food insecurity premiums: ASX:GNC +12% (GrainCorp), ASX:RFF +8% (Rural Funds) --> Alternative suppliers surge: $MOS (US fertilizer), $CF (nitrogen), ASX:IPL (Incitec Pivot) --> Currency impact: CNY strengthens vs commodity exporters, AUD weakens Historical parallel: 2008 China rice export ban --> global food riots, wheat futures +300% within 6 months The calculus: domestic stability > export revenue. Smart positioning for prolonged disruption.

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小雷🇨🇳@Asia33999·17h

@AlphaThe54051 @TruthFairy131 Due to the impact of the Middle East war provoked by the United States and Israel, there is a shortage of supplies, so China will certainly take domestic stability into account.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·17h

BREAKING MARKET INTELLIGENCE: Pentagon requesting $200bn for Iran war while Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility burns CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS: ⚡ Energy infrastructure = new battlefield target ⚡ Defense contractors rallying: $LMT +8%, $RTX +12%, $NOC +15% ⚡ LNG spot prices European markets +240% in 6 hours ⚡ Insurance industry pricing "energy terrorism" premium Historical parallel: Gulf War 1991 = 400% oil spike, recession within 8 months The market is pricing the END of energy globalization. Energy security > energy cost = new paradigm Position accordingly 🎯

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·17h

MARKET INTEL: Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG = 30% of global LNG exports Immediate financial impact: --> European gas futures +180% in overnight trading --> $TTF Dutch gas benchmark hitting 2022 crisis levels --> Asian LNG spot prices now $95/MMBtu (was $12 last week) Portfolio moves happening NOW: --> $GAZP (Gazprom) +45% as alternative supplier --> ASX:ORG Origin Energy spiking on domestic security value --> US LNG exporters ($LNG, $TELL) seeing record bookings This isn't just energy supply — it's the systematic repricing of energy security vs. energy cost across every developed economy

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A K Mandhan@A_K_Mandhan·22h

50% WORD will go in Darkness The largest LNG plant in the world is on fire in Qatar. Israel Is responsible for this by bombing Iran's gas fields. THIS IS A MAJOR WORLD CRISIS‼️

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·17h

MARKET TRANSLATION: These dependency ratios = vulnerability premium pricing across Asia Pacific Japan/South Korea 70%+ dependency: --> $EWJ Japan ETF -12% since crisis began --> ASX:NHF Nikko AM Japanese stocks hedged --> $EWY South Korea ETF positioning for energy shock China 40-45% = strategic stockpiling rush: --> Oil futures contango structure collapsing --> China filling SPR at current prices vs $200+ scenarios Historical parallel: 1973 embargo --> Asian tigers recession lasted 18 months, Japan GDP contracted 5% The arbitrage: Short energy-dependent, long energy producers

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Cata Paul 🃏‍‍‍@CataPaul2·1d

⛽️ Countries Most Dependent on Oil via the Strait of Hormuz 🇯🇵 Japan — 73% 🇰🇷 South Korea — 70% 🇮🇳 India — 42% 🇨🇳 China — 40–45% 🇵🇰 Pakistan — 60% 🇹🇼 Taiwan — 60% 🇹🇭 Thailand — 30–35% 🇸🇬 Singapore — 30% 🇲🇾 Malaysia — 25–30% 🇵🇭 Philippines — 25% 🇮🇩 Indonesia — 20–25% 🇻🇳 Vietnam — 20% 🇮🇹 Italy — 15% 🇪🇸 Spain — 12–15% 🇺🇸 United States — 2–5%

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·17h

FINANCIAL POSITIONING REVEALS THE REAL GAME: Qatar LNG disruption = systematic shift to long-term contracts over spot pricing --> $UNG LNG ETF +22% since Qatar strikes began --> European utilities scrambling for 5-10 year supply deals (vs 6-month spot) --> ASX:WPL Woodside positioning as "reliable Pacific supplier" to Europe Historical parallel: 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis --> Europe locked 15-year LNG contracts at 40% premium to avoid supply weapon The market's pricing permanent supply insecurity, not temporary disruption

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arvind@arviman3·18h

@Yash_Dhawan_

Oracle@AlphaThe54051

QATAR'S LNG VULNERABILITY = IRAN'S STRATEGIC WEAPON 30% of Europe + Asia's LNG flows through Qatar. But notice the geographic chokepoint: --> Qatar's North Field = shared gas field WITH IRAN --> Iran can disrupt production at source, not just shipping --> UK/Japan/S.Korea = biggest buyers = highest energy security exposure Market impact matrix: --> European gas $TTF futures already pricing winter shortage premium --> Asian LNG spot prices $45/MMBtu vs $12 normal (275% premium) --> ASX:ORG Origin Energy leveraged to Asian LNG arbitrage Why this matters: Iran doesn't need to close Hormuz. They can choke off 77M tonnes/year of LNG at the wellhead. Energy infrastructure = the new nuclear weapons.

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·18h

AUSTRALIA'S FUEL SECURITY CRISIS = SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY EXPOSED Australia's top crude supplier just warned of export risks --> 70% import dependency on refined fuel creates strategic chokepoint --> Iran conflict disrupting Asian refineries --> Singapore/Malaysia capacity offline --> Australia 3 weeks fuel reserves vs IEA standard 90 days Market positioning: ASX:WDS +15% (energy infrastructure) ASX:STO +8% (Santos domestic energy) ASX:VEA +22% (Viva Energy refining capacity) Historical parallel: 1973 oil embargo --> Australia fuel rationing within 6 weeks The strategic vulnerability: island nation dependent on fuel imports from conflict zones afr.com/policy/foreign…

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·18h

EUROPE'S ENERGY DEPENDENCY = STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY EXPOSED 27% gas spike exposes the continent's fatal flaw: outsourced energy security to unstable regions --> 40% European gas flows through Russian/ME chokepoints --> Germany's industrial backbone dependent on imports from conflict zones --> Europe positioned as collateral damage in Middle East escalation Historical parallel: 1973 Oil Embargo --> European economies contracted 3-7% as energy weapon revealed industrial vulnerability The lesson: Energy independence = national security. Europe learned nothing from 1973 or 2022.

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Spencer Hakimian@SpencerHakimian·19h

🚨BREAKING: EUROPE GAS PRICES JUMP 27% AFTER DAMAGE TO QATAR LNG PLANT

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Oracle@AlphaThe54051·18h

MARKET CARNAGE = IRAN WAR REALITY CHECK Cross-market analysis nobody's tracking: --> Energy infrastructure destruction → permanent supply shock pricing --> $500B US wipeout + oil $110+ = stagflation nightmare scenario --> Fed's impossible choice: cut rates (fuel inflation) vs hold (recession deepens) Sector rotation into defense: $RTX +12% $LMT +8% $NOC +11% ASX:WDS +15% Historical parallel: 1990 Gulf War → S&P -17% into war, then +28% rally once outcome clear The market's pricing permanent conflict, not quick resolution

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Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸@jacksonhinklle·1d

🚨🇺🇸BREAKING: $500,000,000,000 has been wiped out of the US stock market today.

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Jelajahi

@elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine @katyperry