Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Ks -110 vs Cleveland | Dodger Stadium | April 1
Yamamoto opened 2026 with 6 Ks over 6 innings against Arizona and has his lone career start against Cleveland on record from last season — 6 innings, 2 runs, earning the win. He has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 13 consecutive starts dating back to last season.  Cleveland hit .226 as a team with a .670 OPS in 2025  and enters tonight with the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 29.5%. Chase DeLauter is out with a foot injury, thinning an already limited lineup against a right-hander of this caliber. Dodger Stadium plays as a pitcher-friendly environment and evening conditions keep this a controlled, swing-and-miss-friendly setting.
Yamamoto’s whiff rate sat at 29.0% in 2025 and his splitter generated ground balls on 18 of 19 balls in play  making it one of the most dominant chase pitches in the game. Cleveland’s lineup struggles particularly against pitchers who work down in the zone and expand off it — exactly how Yamamoto operates with his splitter and curveball combo. The Guardians struck out 10 times against Ohtani the night before  and now face a pitcher with deeper vertical movement and a sharper breaking ball. The pattern of exploiting this lineup’s swing-and-miss tendencies carries directly into tonight.
Three righties in similar strikeout-heavy profiles faced Cleveland recently and delivered. Ohtani went 6 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts against this same Cleveland lineup Tuesday  — lined at over 6.5 Ks, finished at exactly 6. Roki Sasaki opened the series Monday with 6 Ks in his start as well. Gavin Williams posted 7 Ks in his season debut though with command issues — the pattern across this series alone shows Cleveland is not making contact at a high rate. Yamamoto is the best arm of the three and gets a tired, banged-up lineup at home.
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