CoinNotes

Strategy to outperform 90% of CT: 1. Buy Bitcoin at HTF moving averages (200-300w). 2. Until then, trade on @variational_io and @extendedapp to farm the airdrops. Delta neutral between HTF levels; directional at HTF levels. Variational code: OMNIVOID Extended code: COINNOTES

Let's see.

ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933 All I want is a 100% candle. Is that too much to ask?

You would think nothing of gold consolidating for a decade before its next move up. This technology is still fundamentally novel and untested and is now pricing in new risks (AI, quantum, etc). If it comes out the other side battle tested, it will rerate higher. In a world of agents, how can you not believe in smart contracts? I say all this as someone who has been bearish eth for ages and expect it to go under $1k, and also agrees with the potential multi-year bear market thesis for crypto.

$PEPE Looking for .033 then back to waiting patiently for accumulation ranges to form.

Most people have predicted this Bitcoin bear market would be shallower and shorter than average: we now have passive institutional flows and stronger hands buying. I want the speculate on an alternative: this bear market could be considerably worse. Here's why. Why does anyone buy Bitcoin? I'm not talking about the OGs who are now unloading into Wall Street, the True Believers. I'm talking about everyone who has bought it since, say, 2017. It's the exponential growth, stupid. They don't want to hold stocks for a 'safe' 7% a year. They need to escape the permanent underclass, or wage slavery, or whatever the latest description is, and they need it now. For that promise, buyers in this market have been willing to endure 70-80% drawdowns every 4 years. But that promise is fading. 🔸 Each cycle offers worse returns than the last. 🔸 As Bitcoin inevitably trades deep into 'last cycle' prices for the first time, even longer term holders' conviction will be challenged as it never was before. 🔸 It is a well known dynamic that people are more willing to hold as long as they are in profit. In previous cycles, all n-1 cycle buyers remained in profit. This time they will not. That will unlock new sellers. 🔸 Volatility and easy leverage in other markets offer alternative routes to the same end, making the case for new buyers less straightforward. 🔸 Generally, everyone now knows about Bitcoin and anyone who wants to buy Bitcoin now has a way to. The next marginal buyer will be much harder to find. All of this is to say nothing of the possibility of a wider economic downturn. My concerns are based purely on Bitcoin's mythology, narrative appeal, and price dynamics. Ultimately, I still intend to buy BTC at and below the 200 week SMA. However, I think there is a significant likelihood that we could be given opportunities to buy materially lower than that, and that this bear market could last, for example, 3 years instead of 1.

$ZEC If it prints there it will trade there. That wick is likely getting filled over the next few weeks.

@Evan_ss6 Far too bullish on eth

52k 1300 50 44

longed some pepe for a bounce, I dont think btc just slices through the lows without squeezing shorts first

@0xaporia nobody has a clue and they all end up losing to TA bros anyway x.com/CoinNotes_io/s…

I’ve developed a real distaste for macro over the last few months. Macro is the easiest way to look and feel smart while saying nothing. You can talk rates and geopolitics forever and never be wrong, because nobody marks your calls to market. 99% of it is entertainment, and it’s catnip for content creators, because there’s a fresh thing to react to every other day, so they happily feed the cycle. It’s all fugazi.

@game_for_one buy low sell high

@ZoomerOracle do you know a single person using anything in crypto other than hype?

Everytime ive asked people that were massively shilling $ZEC why it should go ham, not a single person could tell me why which was a redflag I dont know a single person using ZEC and I never will because it’s trash

It’s time to pay attention. These moments of extreme panic only come once every few years. Give me a dirty liquidation cascade on btc like the olden days and I’ll slurp.

I realise it seems redacted to still be talking about buying ZEC after this news, and maybe it is.

The market will be cautious on BTC as long as its decentralisation is perceived as an obstacle to adapting to emerging technological threats (AI/quantum). Protocols that are more centrally maintained are actually better positioned. ETH + ZEC still look like good bets for next cycle (ZEC provisional, depends if it got pwned). But first lower.

300 week sma

As far as I'm concerned this ZEC hack is an opportunity. If I can buy a big bag <$100 I'll be very happy. Yeah, technology can be hacked. AI is going to find many vulnerabilities. The fact that the team is actively auditing their tech and found a vulnerability is a good thing.

@SSnuffalupagus it's probably more like "oh no technology can be hacked" kinda deal

Is $ZEC dragging $HYPE and $LIT down because they all rallied together? Never change, market

@Greed2Fear I think we are some way away from 'unprecedented', but you can never rule it out.

I'm really afraid that BTC is going to lose the 200W in a way it's never done before. In the past, it remained below only for 1-2 weeks

"The Times 03/Jan/2028 Congress on brink of second bailout for tech giants." Time is a flat circle. We will be back.

50k in 2026 is 20k in 2022.