AR.Edwards

Oracle CDS at 197 bps. Was 223 bps during the GFC. Now you know why it's the most actively traded IG CDS in America. $ORCL

JUST IN: 🇰🇵🇺🇸 Kim Jong Un watches as North Korea conducts engine test for missile capable of targeting US mainland.

BREAKING: The Pentagon is preparing for 'weeks of ground operations in Iran' according to Washington Post report

JUST IN: US reportedly planning ground invasion of up to 2 months into Iran

Talking to some big oil traders lately and they are not optimistic in any sense. Oil shortfalls of 600 million bbls or more in the next 60 days. I think it’s high probability we see a meaningful decline in gdp which will allow for enough demand destruction to look past the ugly inflation impact on the horizon. That impact will also be levered in conjunction with a feed through to anything related to oil related supply chains from fertilizer to PVC on top of pass through costs from diesel fuel. Farmers are going to have a very tough time. That sets up potential for a repricing of the curve front running lower yields and future cuts to offset a potential recession It’s becoming more likely this war is far harder to resolve in a short amount of time and the damage is already done it just hasn’t fed through the pipeline yet. I’t is possible the lower band of the next collar will have a 5k handle. How this impacts employment over the next three number will be very important. The chicago fed already upped the unemployment forecast this week I think there is potential for a 40-75 bp upside move in sofr here relatively quickly Yes I’m taking my book but that’s why I’m positioned this way.