Jeremy Chan

“People always say that China doesn’t understand the Mideast,” says our expert @Jchanalytics. “Maybe China understands it wants to stay as far away from this as possible.” scmp.com/news/china/dip…

“Beijing knows deep down that this isn’t about China at all,” says our expert @Jchanalytics about Trump delaying the upcoming summit. “He can’t be seen hobnobbing with Xi while Hormuz burns.” wsj.com/world/china/in…

@Ali_Wyne @CrisisGroup “Beijing knows deep down that this isn’t about China at all,” said Jeremy Chan of the political-risk consulting firm @EurasiaGroup. “He can’t be seen hobnobbing with Xi while Hormuz burns.” @JChanalytics wsj.com/world/china/in…

Our expert @Jchanalytics says the Iran war and delayed China trip are raising the stakes for Japanese PM Takaichi’s White House visit. Takaichi needs to find a delicate way to tell Trump no when it comes to sending ships and personnel to Hormuz. scmp.com/news/china/dip…

Allies are in no hurry to bow to Trump’s demands for support against Iran. Our expert @Jchanalytics says that leaders in 🇯🇵 & 🇰🇷 are uneasy about supporting a “a war waged without UN authorization that does not directly affect their national security.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This week, a train left China for North Korea for the first time in six years. Our expert @JChanalytics explains that Xi is reverting to the pre-Covid status quo by keeping Pyongyang in its orbit through trade, tourism and infrastructure connectivity. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“Recent global conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and now Iran prove the limits of China’s vision,” says our expert @Jchanalytics. Beijing will need to develop a more muscular toolbox if it wants to provide quasi-security guarantees for partner countries. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“Beijing has a greater interest in maintaining its detente with Washington than protecting Tehran or Caracas,” says our expert @Jchanalytics. bloom.bg/4byuXX2

Our expert @JChanalytics says that Trump’s military endeavors will put a damper on his upcoming meeting with Xi. “This should further lower expectations of meaningful outcomes from the Trump-Xi summit, although the meeting is still likely to go forward.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“Washington will likely delay but not cancel the arms package for Taiwan until after Trump’s visit,” says our expert @Jchanalytics. Xi clearly signaled that another arms package before April could imperil the visit, which neither side wants. scmp.com/news/us/articl…

Our expert @Jchanalytics says the Wang-Rubio meeting in Munich was likely more about overlapping schedules and keeping the momentum moving towards Trump's visit. “We’re likely to see another round of Bessent-He trade talks between now and then too." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Key watchpoints for China-Japan relationship from our expert @JChanalytics: ➡️ Who Takaichi appoints to cabinet ➡️ How Takaichi’s visit to Washington goes ➡️ Whether Takaichi moves forward on her pledges to harden Japan’s defense against China bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Turning Japanese

#Japan has reduced its dependence on Chinese rare earths to around 60%, down from nearly 90% in 2010.

If there is a convincing victory for Japanese PM Takaichi in snap elections, our expert @Jchanalytics says it would signal to Beijing that she is here to stay and China’s suite of coercive tactics are not going to succeed in driving her from office. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

It turns out being friendly to #China is... politically popular in #SouthKorea? Lee's approval rating is at a two-month high following his trip to Beijing/Shanghai last week.

“Beijing is clearly trying to drive a wedge between Korea and Japan,” says our expert @Jchanalytics. China is hoping to leverage President Lee’s “desire to restore ‘balance’ to Korea’s foreign policy with his party’s longstanding anti-Japan streak.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

China began hedging its bets against Venezuela five years ago.