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๐ PK Dish #2 (3/21)
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โข Merrill already showed success in this exact matchup earlier this season, dropping 22 points vs New Orleans on 7/12 shooting and 6/10 from three.
โข This is a perfect schematic matchup for how Merrill generates his offense. Looking at the Pels defensive data, they rank:
โ 29th vs SG points
โ 25th vs catch & shoot
โ 27th vs restricted area defense
โ 24th in overall defensive rating
This is perfect for Merrill as 64% of his shots come from above-the-break threes and 63% are catch & shoot looks which is exactly where New Orleans has struggled defensively this season.
โข His scoring profile aligns clean across the board:
๐ 38% of his points come from spot-up โ Pelicans rank 21st
๐ 17% in transition โ Pelicans rank 27th
โข Weโve consistently seen similar archetype players clear in this spot:
โ
Luke Kennard: 9 Pts (Line: 8.5)
โ
Moses Moody: 24 pts (Line: 16.5)
โ
AJ Green: 20 Points (Line: 11.5)
โ
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 11 pts (Line: 8.5)
โ
Vince Williams Jr.: 13 pts (Line: 7.5)
โ
Isaiah Joe: 17 pts (Line: 12.5)
โ
Lu Dort: 12 pts (Line: 10.5)
โข Without Craig Porter Jr, Merrill is 8/8 to the over this season, averaging 13.4 PPG in those games.
โข Cleveland is also without Tyrese Proctor, while Jaylon Tyson and Donovan Mitchell are questionable which could open up even more of a clear path for Merrill to take on additional scoring responsibility alongside Mobley and Harden.
โข Between elite role splits, perfect shot profile, and a defense ranking near the bottom in every area Merrill attacks, he has multiple paths to clear this number once again.
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