Tweet Disematkan
โBorrowing is not leprosy.โ๐โโ๏ธ
That was Tinubuโs response to his administrationโs borrowing spree ๐, coming shortly after reports surfaced that Nigeria was seeking another $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank. Unsurprisingly, many Nigerians reacted negatively. To most people, the issue is straightforward:
Why does a country already struggling economically keep borrowing more money?
But beyond the outrage and political noise, debt needs to be examined with context, not emotion.
When Tinubu assumed office in 2023, he inherited an economy already under serious fiscal pressure. The budget deficit stood at roughly โฆ11 trillion, meaning the government planned to spend far beyond what it expected to generate in revenue. At the time, Nigeriaโs debt-service-to-revenue ratio had become dangerously high, with debt obligations consuming almost all government earnings at certain points. On top of that, the previous administration had borrowed against future crude oil production simply to sustain and fund consumption.
The new administration realistically had two choices:
- increase revenue or
- continue borrowing to keep the system running.
It chose both.
Since then, several major policies have reshaped the economy:
- fuel subsidy removal,
- exchange rate unification,
- naira devaluation,
- and access to relatively cheaper foreign loans compared to previous years.
Nigeriaโs 2026 budget is now significantly larger than the 2023 budget, but the fundamental problem remains: the country still spends more than it earns. And whenever a government runs a deficit, there are only limited solutions:
raise revenue, reduce spending, or borrow.
So the current borrowing trend was never accidental. It became inevitable once deficit budgets continued to be approved.
Now, does that mean Nigeria has no debt problem?
Not exactly.
There are, however, a few realities often ignored in public conversations.
First, government revenue has improved compared to where the country was in 2023. Nigeria today has more fiscal breathing space than it did when debt servicing consumed nearly every naira coming in.
Second, global investors do not appear as panicked as the average Nigerian citizen. Eurobond yields have eased from previous crisis levels, which usually reflects stronger confidence in Nigeriaโs ability to meet its obligations. ๐
Third, Nigeria has not defaulted on its sovereign debt. In fact, in dollar terms, the countryโs total debt exposure has reportedly reduced from about $108 billion in 2023 to somewhere around $90โ95 billion today. The reason the figures appear much larger locally is because naira devaluation dramatically inflated the debt when converted to local currency.
So, in plain terms, is Nigeria financially healthy? ๐ค
Not fully.
The country is no longer in the exact fiscal emergency it faced in 2023, and there has clearly been progress in revenue generation. But the concerns around continuous borrowing are still legitimate. Inflation remains high, the naira is still weak, and long-term sustainability depends entirely on whether government revenue can keep growing faster than debt obligations.
If revenues stall or borrowed funds are poorly managed, Nigeria could easily fall back into the same fiscal crisis it is trying to escape. But if revenue growth continues and spending becomes more productive, the situation may remain manageable.
So no, borrowing is not leprosy.
But it is also not something a country can survive on forever without consequences. ๐
English
