Tom Moore, Nuclear-Capable Wonk

We overestimated Russia. We underestimated Ukraine. For Russia, every day without victory is defeat. For Ukraine, every day without defeat is victory.

Exclusive: Russia proposed providing Iran with thousands of unjammable drones and training to use them against American forces, @shashj reveals on “The Intelligence” economist.com/podcasts/2026/…

The safe removal of all enriched uranium from Venezuela sends another signal to the world of a restored and renewed Venezuela. Thanks to President Trump’s decisive leadership, the dedicated teams on the ground completed in months what would have normally taken years. energy.gov/nnsa/articles/…

NEW VIDEO: One F-18 Super Hornet stops two oil tankers from running through the blockade to a port in Iran.

Two Iranian tanker kills by one Super Hornet:

@chrisramsay52 What you see is not the shape of the object itself but a known flare that happens when a bright object is directly in frame of a FLIR camera, the video feed is inverted so it appears black

Rubio when the UFO files drop 😂

Ihor "Omelianovych" Shkilnyi, Ukrainian volunteer and founder of the ZAMPOTEKH Charity Foundation, showed a Russian "international" Shahed drone from the inside - revealing numerous foreign-made components from Switzerland, the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, and China. 📹: omelyanovi4 / Instagram

OUR NEW: Comprehensive Analysis of Iranian Nuclear Facilities Targeted During the Recent War, the Second Phase of the Iran War I want to share our comprehensive report detailing and providing high-resolution satellite imagery of the nuclear related facilities that Israel and the United States targeted and destroyed during the Iran war that lasted from February 28 to a ceasefire on April 7/8, 2026. The Institute could identify at least six nuclear sites that were attacked.  Three other sites that were attacked could be nuclear-related, but there is not enough information to be certain.  In total, six to nine sites were recently attacked that were nuclear related. Four of the 33 images in the report are attached. Their figure captions are at the end of this post. The Israeli priority in the second phase of the war appears to have been more on further degrading Iran’s ability to make the nuclear weapon itself, a process called nuclear weaponization.  Some of these targeted weaponization sites were revealed publicly for the first time, shedding new light onto the extent of Iran's nuclear weapons related work.  Of the six to nine sites mentioned above, four to seven of them, or almost all of them, were directly related to making the nuclear weapon itself or possibly related in that way.  A total of five nuclear weaponization-related sites were attacked in June 2025. In both phases of the war, a grand total of nine to twelve sites involved in developing and building nuclear weapons were targeted.   Attacks in phase two have further set back Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons.  Recent media reports of the U.S. intelligence community finding that the second phase of the war did not set back timelines for Iran to build nuclear weapons do not accord with the visible damage of nuclear weaponization facilities and require both more explanation and scrutiny. The attacks deserve credit for significantly increasing both the time needed to finish a nuclear weapon and the chance of failure if tried.  While the new Iranian regime is widely perceived as more motivated to decide to make nuclear weapons, its means to do so are severely degraded as is its confidence in trying.  While before the June 2025 war Iran could have broken out and built a non-missile deliverable nuclear weapon with almost 100 percent certainty in less than six months, it will face a much more difficult struggle towards success if it tries in the coming months, and the probability of succeeding, whether it be in nine months, one year, or two years, is now much less technically certain, and significantly less than 100 percent.  That real risk of failing to successfully build a nuclear weapon may be a deterrent against deciding to try. Read the full imagery report here: isis-online.org/isis-reports/c… Captions of the four images of attacked sites from left to right 1) Min-Zadayi is a previously unknown site suspected to play a key role in Iran’s attempt to reconstitute nuclear weapons capabilities post-June 2025. A close up of the hillside crater and smaller craters on a nearby concrete surface, apparently a roof for a partially buried area. 2) The two newly targeted buildings are close to the previously targeted (June 2025) SPND Mojdeh site and connected by footpaths. All three are involved in nuclear wespons development. 3) Before and after view of the large workshop building at Malek Ashtar University that was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike.  4) Before and after view of the destroyed engineering-laboratory building connected to Malek Ashtar University and the Mojdeh Site.

Kyiv drew its own long-range map — and threw it on the table. A great achievement for Ukraine. A lesson for others. For years, Ukraine asked its partners for long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Guided by escalation concerns, some refused outright (Germany and Taurus); some provided them only in very limited quantities and long barred strikes against targets inside Russia (the US and ATACMS); while others agreed but supplied them in limited batches and imposed restrictions on their employment (the UK with Storm Shadow and France with SCALP). It was a hard fight with friends. Meanwhile, Ukraine did not sit still. It spent these years developing its own capabilities. Today, Kyiv produces enough long-range drones and missiles of sufficient quality to strike Russia regularly and deep behind the front lines. This is not a turning point in the war. But it is a qualitatively new instrument of pressure on Putin at a time when Trump is unwilling to bear down on him and Europeans lack the ability to do so. Most importantly, it is a powerful example of how a nation builds its own capabilities and reduces critical dependence on partners.

In the best tradition of answering the question you wished you were asked, not the one you are asked.

For those keeping score at home, the recently published White House CT strategy mentions the word "transgender" as many times as it does "drone" or "Hezbollah." It eschews all mention of far-right extremism and/or domestic terrorism. It barely touches on Iranian-backed terrorism.

Panem et circenses.

Yaroslavl, more than 700 kilometers from Ukraine’s state border. An oil sector facility that was of great importance for financing Russia’s war. I thank the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our military intelligence for this manifestation of justice. Ukraine’s long-range sanctions continued in response to Russian strikes on our cities and villages. Russia must choose genuine peace, and only strong pressure will ensure that.

Over the course of last night, the Russian army continued to strike Ukrainian positions. As of 7 a.m., more than 140 strikes on frontline positions had been recorded. During the night, the Russians carried out 10 assaults, the largest number of them in the Slovyansk sector. They also launched more than 850 strikes with drones of various types – FPVs, “Lancets,” and others. There were attack drones as well. The use of reconnaissance drones in the skies over frontline communities also did not stop. All of this clearly shows that, on the Russian side, there was not even a token attempt to cease fire on the front. As we did over the past 24 hours, Ukraine will respond in kind today as well. We will defend our positions and people’s lives. Russia must end its war, and everyone will truly see it when movement toward peace begins. Glory to Ukraine!

Bloomberg : Secretary of State Marco Rubio approved the sale of hundreds of prized air-defense interceptors and other weapons to Middle East partners in deals worth $25.8 billion, three times the amount disclosed when the administration announced the agreements last week.

@DuitsmanMS I thought of that, too, but had beaten the dead horse, so am now enjoying the Turkish hate.

What really tipped me off is that there's no cable raceway. You need to get data from the guidance system (at the front of the missile) to the thrust vector control system (attached to the engines at the back).

This is, I think, very much a mock-up. And a conceptual mock-up, at that. This is not the actual missile they plan to build - this is the idea of the missile they want to build. There are many things that don't match up with an actual missile.

I'm a former college professor. The Admin's CT strategy reads like it was an undergrad essay written the night before the assignment was due. It's actually worse than I expected & I already had an incredibly low bar. It's an exercise in gaslighting, partisanship & obsequiousness.

@steeljawscribe @MikeyDiMercurio I thought you liked it that way.

@MikeyDiMercurio I personally think folks are reading waaay too much into this.

Everybody excited over an F-14 Tomcat flying again but nobody says anything about a Sturgeon-class submarine sailing again...